As the weekend rolls on, MLB handicapper Dalton Brown is finding value in a pair of bets from the same game Saturday afternoon in Milwaukee.
4:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers: Pirates First 5 Innings moneyline (-105) at FanDuel, Pirates full game moneyline (-105) at BetMGM
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers will continue their weekend series Saturday afternoon at American Family Field, and I am backing Pittsburgh to bounce back through five innings despite its current four-game losing streak.
The Pirates’ last win came behind Saturday’s starting pitcher Mitch Keller, who tossed seven innings of one-run ball against a talented Mets offense. Keller has been excellent this season overall, earning a 3.30 xERA despite a stretch that saw him struggle through much of late May. Keller pitched well on the road in Milwaukee, too - over 11.2 innings of work, the righty allowed just three earned runs.
Wade Miley will head to the mound for the Brewers, and he’ll likely be hampered by a strict pitch count limit as he returns from injury. Miley’s xERA of 4.59 screams incoming negative regression, too, and Pittsburgh has been above average (wRC+ 105) versus lefties over the last month.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, ranks dead-last in baseball in wRC+ (71) against right-handed pitching over the last month. Keller has been better than Miley all season, and the Pirates ought to carry a lead into the game’s late innings.
Add in a slight bullpen advantage for Pittsburgh, and I think the Pirates get back into the win column by game’s end as well.