With a full Saturday of baseball on tap, MLB handicapper Dalton Brown is back with a pair of moneyline plays in the afternoon.
4:05 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies: Phillies moneyline (+112) at BetRivers
The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will battle in the second of their three-game set from Citizens Bank Park Saturday afternoon, an I'm backing Philadelphia at home to pick up a win.
Mets starter Carlos Carrasco is a guy I'm currently eager to fade - since June 1, he's put up a 7.82 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP. His xERA is 6.30 for the season, and the Phillies just saw him in late May. The Phillies have been above-average against right-handed pitching since May 15 (wRC+ 103), and entered Friday's action 7-3 over their last 10 games.
Rookie Christopher Sanchez will get his third career start for the Phillies, and he's been solid so far. Sanchez boasts a 2.66 xERA over a small sample, and while I'm not sold on him pitching deep into the game, the bullpen Rob Thomson will turn to behind Sanchez has been elite. Since June 1, Philadelphia's bullpen boasts the fourth-best xFIP in the league. The Mets bulllpen ranks just 20th in xFIP over that same span.
4:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox: Red Sox moneyline (-115) at DraftKings
The weekend-long battle of Sox continues on Saturday afternoon, as the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox will battle on the south side of the Windy City.
I am backing the visiting Red Sox to pick up a win Saturday, mostly because of how dominant lefty James Paxton has been since his return from injury. Paxton's velocity is all the way back where it was when he was dominant years ago, and his results have reflected it.
The lefty has posted a 2.33 ERA in June, and looked unhittable at times while doing it - and despite the reputation of the "lefty-mashing" White Sox, I trust Boston's veteran starter here. Chicago is merely average since May 15 anyway, boasting a wRC+ of just 100 during that span.
On the flip side, Boston is crushing righties (107 wRC+ since May 15) and has won six of its last eight games. The Red Sox will take their swings against Lance Lynn, a righty whose season has been a disappointment. Yes, Lynn struck out 16 Mariners in his last start, but he still allowed three runs and picked up the loss. He's allowed three or more runs in 13 of his last 14 starts, and his xERA of 4.86 on the season is nothing to write home about.
This pitching matchup clearly favors the Red Sox, and I trust Boston's lineup in its current form to punish Lance Lynn.