After a short card Monday, MLB handicapper Dalton Brown is back with two plays for Tuesday's backed baseball slate.
7:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets: Brewers first 5 innings moneyline (+135) at PointsBet
The Brewers and Mets will continue their series Tuesday night in Queens after Milwaukee took game one, and I'm backing the Brew Crew to jump ahead early again in game two.
Veteran righty Julio Teheran gets the ball for the Brewers, a pitcher who will eventually come crashing back to earth but has been a cash cow in recent weeks since his return to the league. Teheran boasts a 1.53 ERA so far this season over six starts, and he's yet to allow more than two earned runs in an outing. He is avoiding hard contact well despite not missing many bats, and he's not walking enough hitters to get him into trouble otherwise. Teheran's xERA of 3.29 suggests some negative regression could be due eventually, but for now we ride the wave when he's a dog against a struggling offense like New York.
David Peterson returns to the rotation to pitch Tuesday night for the Mets, and I am excited to resume fading the Mets' struggling lefty. Peterson allowed five earned runs over four innings when he saw Milwaukee in April, and surrendered four or more runs in each of his last five MLB starts before being sent down to Triple-A Syracuse in mid-May. It's not like he's dominated the minors, either - in four June starts, Peterson's ERA is 5.59 on the farm.
This is a pretty sizable pitching mismatch given the current form of each starter, and I do not think Milwaukee should be plus-money over the game's first five innings. Let's leave the bullpens out of it and hope Teheran continues his roll.
9:40 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics: Yankees moneyline (-130) at PointsBet
The Yankees as a moneyline favorite of just -130 against the Oakland A's? Yes, please. I fully understand that Yankees starter Jhony Brito isn't exactly Gerrit Cole or Roger Clemens, but he seemed to find something in his last start (5.2 scoreless innings vs. Seattle) and gets his shot at one of MLB's worst offenses here.
A's starter Paul Blackburn will oppose Brito, a righty producing decidedly average results on a pitching staff where that is incredibly valuable. It led Blackburn to the All-Star Game last season, but even then his 4.14 xERA told the story of a merely average starting pitcher. Blackburn has been similarly ordinary of late, posting a 4.57 ERA over three June starts while surrendering three or more runs in three of four starts.
I think you could make an argument that this pitching matchup is a wash, but that's where the comparisons end. Against right-handed pitching, New York's wRC+ is 11 points higher against righties than Oakland's since May 15, and the Yankees' pen has been stronger all season (but especially lately - since June 1, New York's 3.90 bullpen xFIP is far superior to Oakland's 4.97).
Put simply, this is a talent mismatch at most positions around the diamond - and this starting pitching matchup is not enough to warrant the Yankees being such small favorites.