Sitting at 15-10 for +6.30 units so far, Dalton Brown is back with two more best bets for Wednesday's packed slate of MLB games.
7:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds: Elly De La Cruz OVER 1.5 total bases (+145) at FanDuel
Let's have a little fun with baseball's top prospect, who was called up to the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday for what was eventually a 9-8 series-opening win over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Elly De La Cruz is a generational prospect talent-wise, equipped with all of the tools to be one of the game's most impactful players from the jump. He was responsible for the Reds' only extra-base hit on Tuesday, a 112-mph double into the right-center gap. He was an extra-base hit machine at Triple-A Louisville, slugging .633 with an OPS of 1.031. His elite speed can turn any single into a double and so on, and he has showcased light-tower power at every level.
I think there is a strong chance that we only need one base hit to cash this bet, but he'll be near the top of the Reds' lineup once again with plenty of opportunities for more. Add in that Noah Syndergaard, one of 2023's least effective starting pitchers in baseball, is on the mound for Los Angeles ahead of a poor bullpen in a game with a total of 11 and we have the perfect recipe for a big night from the prodigious 21-year-old. Looking for a little more fun? I'd play Cincinnati on the moneyline down to +150, too.
4:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres: Mariners First 5 Innings moneyline (-105) at BetMGM
The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners will finish up their quick two-game set with a matinee matchup on Tuesday afternoon, and I trust George Kirby to do enough in to stake his team to a lead.
Kirby (5-4, 3.04 ERA), once a top pitching prospect and now a key right-handed cog in the Mariners rotation, has been excellent this season. His 3.22 xERA validates his results, as does the strong 3.12 mark he posted in May. Last time out, Kirby completely dominated the Yankees to the tune of eight shutout innings. Wednesday, he'll get his chance against a Padres offense that has been lost at sea all season.
Padres starter Michael Wacha (5-2, 3.48 ERA), named NL Pitcher of the Month for May, has been excellent in his own right - but unlike Kirby, I am not buying in on his recent performance becoming his new norm. Wacha's xERA of 4.22 tells the story of a much more middling pitcher, as do the last several years of starts he's produced in Boston and beyond.
He walked five batters in his last start, a sign that his command is beginning to slip - and given that he is in the bottom-half of MLB pitchers in expected slugging percentage allowed and barrel-rate surrendered while allowing the highest fly-ball rate of his career, I'm willing to bet he'll be back down to earth in no time.
Let's stay away from San Diego's No. 1-ranked bullpen in ERA since May 1, and target Seattle over the first five innings while its advantage is the most pronounced.