7:40 p.m. ET: Mets at Cubs OVER 6.5 (-118)
The Mets and Cubs will go at it again Wednesday night from Wrigley Field, and I believe both offenses have what it takes to fight through the wind and go over this low total. Cubs starter Marcus Stroman, who hardly allows fly balls anyway, is due for steep negative regression (3.05 ERA vs. 4.10 xERA).
His ERA in May (4.35) suggests that regression is already in progress, and the Mets offense has improved rapidly over the last 7-10 days. Kodai Senga, New York’s starter, walks more batters than 90% of MLB pitchers and has extremely concerning home/road splits (1.57 ERA at home vs. 6.30 on the road). Both bullpens rank 24th or worse in MLB since May 1 as well, so we ought to have opportunities throughout the night and won’t need a ton of luck to eclipse this number.
8:40 p.m. ET: Marlins at Rockies OVER 10.5 (-120)
The Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies will play the third in a four-game series Wednesday night at Coors Field, and I am backing both offenses to score plenty. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara was an “under” machine last season, but has not been the same pitcher in 2023 - and I do not believe the market has fully adjusted. His 4.18 xERA is merely average, and he’s posted ERA’s over 5.00 in both April and May.
His history against Colorado isn’t good either - he boasts a 5.79 ERA for his career against the Rockies and a 10.13 mark at Coors Field, where he gave up 10 runs in an outing in 2021. Karl Kauffman will make his second career start for Colorado after his first outing on the road at Texas unraveled into a disaster.
Kauffman now pitches at Coors Field for the first time, a jarring experience for a young pitcher. A total of 10.5 would be higher than usual elsewhere, but it’s quite low for Coors Field - and I do not believe it should be.