Looking to improve on a 7-5 record on Daily Best Bets, Dalton Brown is back with two more plays on Tuesday's MLB slate.
6:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins: OVER 7.5 (-113) at BetRivers
The San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins will kick off a three-game set from LoanDepot Park in Miami Tuesday night, and I'm backing these offenses to overcome a relatively low total.
Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara's name understandably carries a lot of pedigree after his Cy Young campaign in 2022, but that success hasn't yet translated this season. Alcantara (2-5, 4.86 ERA) has pitched to a 4.25 xERA that calls for only slight positive regression, and he's allowed an average of 3.4 earned runs per start in May.
His Baseball Savant profile reads closer to that of a slightly-below-league-average hurler than it does to an ace, and he's surrendered at least two runs in eight straight starts and four or more runs in half of those outings. Put simply, the results haven't been there - and after two months, its high time we start taking advantage of books putting out totals that reflect his name more than his performance.
Lefty Ryan Weathers will pitch for San Diego, a young arm that has struggled since returning to the Padres starting rotation. He has made two starts for San Diego, both on the road, and surrendered nine earned runs over just 11.2 innings while walking six batters. His contact profile isn't terrible, but he's rarely creating swings-and-misses and giving away far too many free passes to be effective. Add in that Miami ranks 10th in MLB with an elite 121 wRC+ against lefties in May, and Weathers' evening could be cut short.
9:40 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at Oakland Athletics: Braves team total over 4.5 runs (-135) at DraftKings
The Oakland Athletics defeated the Atlanta Braves in Monday night's series opener, their first win in almost two weeks. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while, so good for them. Tuesday night, I'm expecting a swift return to the A's pitching staff's regularly scheduled programming.
When you're offered a team total of 4.5 against the A's this season, you bet the over - blindly. Oakland's opponents have scored five or more runs in 39 of 56 games this season (69.6%).
Luckily, we don't have to bet it blindly - and we have the mighty Braves offense on our side. Atlanta's offense takes on a middling left-handed starter in JP Sears on Tuesday - and while Sears has pitched to a respectable 3.25 ERA in May, it's very difficult to imagine him replicating that success against a Braves offense that leads baseball with a completely absurd 186 wRC+ against left-handed pitching in May.
Atlanta's army of right-handed sluggers are hitting .353 against southpaws this month, and after Sears leaves the game, the A's league-worst bullpen will enter it. The Braves have a lot of pathways to five runs, and -135 is too cheap.