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Hunting The NCAA - Tracking Teams Off The "COVID-19 Pause" (2/19/2021)

· NCAAM,CBB,Strategy,Matt T

By Matt T

@NFLMarquise

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Author's Introduction: There are currently 15+ NCAA men’s college basketball programs that are on pause due to COVID-19 protocols. While this means that each team will likely be on pause for at least 10 days, I sincerely hope all of these programs return to playing basketball and that everyone stays safe. As a bettor, however, my mind immediately shifts toward “I should fade these teams in their first game back.” Now this isn’t something I advocate blindly backing, but it’s one angle of attack worth looking at when handicapping college basketball teams in the near future and for the duration of the 2021 season. The lack of practices and further lack of conditioning required to compete in a 40-minute game can really have an impact these teams and their players when they're back on the court. Some of these teams are only on pause for 10 days, while others can have even longer stints of absence, and I’m not sure that the bookmakers are putting in the work to account for these pauses. As bettors, we must look to take advantage accordingly.

Mid-February Update: There are now currently 19 men’s basketball programs that are on COVID-19 pause or have just returned to practice due to COVID-19 protocols. Again, this isn’t something I advocate blindly backing, but it’s one angle of attack that I'm looking at when handicapping college basketball. Teams listed below have gone at least 10 days between their last game and their next scheduled game off COVID:

How did teams returning from their COVID-19 pause perform in their first game back over the last week?

Overall, these teams went 4-7 ATS (36%) and we also had six overs to five unders while tracking totals:

  • Albany (-4.5): lost 79-71 (O/U 142) to UMASS Lowell

  • Florida St. (-13): won 92-85 (O/U 142) over Wake Forest

  • Iona (-4.5): won 85-67 (O/U 127) over Manhattan

  • Michigan (PK): won 67-59 (O/U 133.5) over Wisconsin

  • New Orleans (+11): lost 89-79 (O/U 152.5) to Stephen F. Austin

  • North Florida (+11.5): lost to Liberty 73-61 (O/U 136)

  • Northern Illinois (+15): lost to Kent St. 80-58 (O/U 135.5)

  • Richmond (+2.5): lost to VCU 68-56 (O/U 142.5)

  • Santa Clara (+1.5): lost to Loyola Marymount 76-73 (O/U 133)

  • St. Mary’s (+1.5): lost to Pepperdine 60-58 (O/U 134.5)

  • San Diego (+6.5): won 71-60 over Santa Clara (O/U 138)

Please Note: Many games from last week were pushed out to new dates due to continued concerns with COVID-19, so be aware that these dates listed below are fluid and subject to change on a daily basis:

  • Appalachian St. (2/19 VS South Alabama)

  • Marist (2/19 @ St. Peter’s)

  • Baylor (2/20 VS Oklahoma St.)

  • Binghamton (2/20 @ Maine)

  • Bryant (2/20 VS Merrimack)

  • Louisville (2/20 @ North Carolina)

  • Niagara (2/20 VS Siena)

  • Siena (2/20 @ Niagara)

  • Texas A&M (2/20 VS Arkansas)

  • George Washington (2/21 VS Rhode Island)

  • Fordham (2/23 @ Richmond)

  • UNC Asheville (2/23 @ SC Upstate)

  • Memphis (2/24 VS Tulane)

  • UMASS (2/24 @ St. Joseph’s)

  • Bellarmine (2/26 VS Liberty)

  • FGCU (2/26 @ Jacksonville)

  • Delaware (2/27 @ Towson)

  • Hofstra (2/27 @ Elon)

  • Towson (2/27 VS Delaware)

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