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      • NFL Best Bets & Full for Betting Card for Week 16 (PREMIUM)
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      • Sleepy's Best Bet Props for Week 16 (PREMIUM)
    • NFL 
      • NEW: NFL 2022 MID-SEASON PLAN/PRICE NOW AVAILABLE
      • NFL Power Ratings: Upgrades & Downgrades (Conference Championship)
      • Steve Rieder's NFL Betting Card Recap & Insights (Divisional Round)
      • NFL Actionable Stats to Know (Conference Championship COMING SOON)
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    • Sports 
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      • Hunting the NFL: How to Bet on Thursday Night Football
      • Hunting The NFL - Team Beat Reporters You Need To Follow
      • Hunting The NFL - How To Use Power Ratings & Make Actionable Bets in 2022
      • Hunting The NFL - How to Bet on Injuries w/ Steve Rieder
      • Hunting The NFL - How to Bet London Games w/ Steve Rieder
      • Hunting The NBA - Using Status Updates For Prop Bets
      • How To Bet Golf Using Strokes Gained Data (PGA)
      • Hunting The UFC - Mixed Martial Arts Prop Betting
      • Hunting The Race Track - Finding An Edge With Driver Matchups in NASCAR
      • How to win at sports betting: A guide to sustained profitability
      • Hunting The MLB - Fading The Public On Team Narratives
    • About 
      • NEW: NBA PLAYER PROPS PACKAGE 2022-23 NOW LIVE
      • Hunting The NCAA - Sleepy's March Madness Wagering Tips
      • Hunting The Pitch - Soccer Betting 101 & The Asia Line
      • Hunting The NHL - Taking Advantage of Backup Goalies
      • Free Podcasts
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  • PREMIUM
    BETTING PREDATORS
    • Home
    • Premium 
      • NFL Best Bets & Full for Betting Card for Week 16 (PREMIUM)
      • Chris Dell's NFL Top Player Props for Week 16 (PREMIUM)
      • Sleepy's Best Bet Props for Week 16 (PREMIUM)
    • NFL 
      • NEW: NFL 2022 MID-SEASON PLAN/PRICE NOW AVAILABLE
      • NFL Power Ratings: Upgrades & Downgrades (Conference Championship)
      • Steve Rieder's NFL Betting Card Recap & Insights (Divisional Round)
      • NFL Actionable Stats to Know (Conference Championship COMING SOON)
      • NFL Situational Spots to Bet (Conference Championship COMING SOON)
      • NFL Betting Cheat Sheet: Top OL/DL Run Blocking Mismatches (Conference Championship COMING SOON)
      • NFL Betting Cheat Sheet: Top OL/DL Pass Blocking Mismatches (Conference Championship COMING SOON)
      • NFL Lookahead Lines to Bet (Super Bowl COMING SOON)
    • Fantasy 
      • Fantasy Football: All Articles
      • Chris Dell's Fantasy Football Rankings (Week 17 COMING SOON)
      • DFS DraftKings Tournament Preview (Week 17)
      • Rob Norton's DFS Tournament & Milly Maker Recap (Week 16)
    • Tools 
      • Join our FREE betting community on Discord
      • Subscribe to our FREE weekly betting newsletter on Substack
      • NFL Betting/Player Props Cheat Sheet: Updated Every Wednesday (NEW)
      • NFL Buy-Low Receiving Yards Player Prop Model: Updated Every Friday (NEW)
    • Sports 
      • NBA
      • NFL
      • CFB
    • Strategy 
      • Hunting the NFL: How to Bet on Thursday Night Football
      • Hunting The NFL - Team Beat Reporters You Need To Follow
      • Hunting The NFL - How To Use Power Ratings & Make Actionable Bets in 2022
      • Hunting The NFL - How to Bet on Injuries w/ Steve Rieder
      • Hunting The NFL - How to Bet London Games w/ Steve Rieder
      • Hunting The NBA - Using Status Updates For Prop Bets
      • How To Bet Golf Using Strokes Gained Data (PGA)
      • Hunting The UFC - Mixed Martial Arts Prop Betting
      • Hunting The Race Track - Finding An Edge With Driver Matchups in NASCAR
      • How to win at sports betting: A guide to sustained profitability
      • Hunting The MLB - Fading The Public On Team Narratives
    • About 
      • NEW: NBA PLAYER PROPS PACKAGE 2022-23 NOW LIVE
      • Hunting The NCAA - Sleepy's March Madness Wagering Tips
      • Hunting The Pitch - Soccer Betting 101 & The Asia Line
      • Hunting The NHL - Taking Advantage of Backup Goalies
      • Free Podcasts
      • Free Articles
      • Mission
      • Team
    • …  
      • Home
      • Premium 
        • NFL Best Bets & Full for Betting Card for Week 16 (PREMIUM)
        • Chris Dell's NFL Top Player Props for Week 16 (PREMIUM)
        • Sleepy's Best Bet Props for Week 16 (PREMIUM)
      • NFL 
        • NEW: NFL 2022 MID-SEASON PLAN/PRICE NOW AVAILABLE
        • NFL Power Ratings: Upgrades & Downgrades (Conference Championship)
        • Steve Rieder's NFL Betting Card Recap & Insights (Divisional Round)
        • NFL Actionable Stats to Know (Conference Championship COMING SOON)
        • NFL Situational Spots to Bet (Conference Championship COMING SOON)
        • NFL Betting Cheat Sheet: Top OL/DL Run Blocking Mismatches (Conference Championship COMING SOON)
        • NFL Betting Cheat Sheet: Top OL/DL Pass Blocking Mismatches (Conference Championship COMING SOON)
        • NFL Lookahead Lines to Bet (Super Bowl COMING SOON)
      • Fantasy 
        • Fantasy Football: All Articles
        • Chris Dell's Fantasy Football Rankings (Week 17 COMING SOON)
        • DFS DraftKings Tournament Preview (Week 17)
        • Rob Norton's DFS Tournament & Milly Maker Recap (Week 16)
      • Tools 
        • Join our FREE betting community on Discord
        • Subscribe to our FREE weekly betting newsletter on Substack
        • NFL Betting/Player Props Cheat Sheet: Updated Every Wednesday (NEW)
        • NFL Buy-Low Receiving Yards Player Prop Model: Updated Every Friday (NEW)
      • Sports 
        • NBA
        • NFL
        • CFB
      • Strategy 
        • Hunting the NFL: How to Bet on Thursday Night Football
        • Hunting The NFL - Team Beat Reporters You Need To Follow
        • Hunting The NFL - How To Use Power Ratings & Make Actionable Bets in 2022
        • Hunting The NFL - How to Bet on Injuries w/ Steve Rieder
        • Hunting The NFL - How to Bet London Games w/ Steve Rieder
        • Hunting The NBA - Using Status Updates For Prop Bets
        • How To Bet Golf Using Strokes Gained Data (PGA)
        • Hunting The UFC - Mixed Martial Arts Prop Betting
        • Hunting The Race Track - Finding An Edge With Driver Matchups in NASCAR
        • How to win at sports betting: A guide to sustained profitability
        • Hunting The MLB - Fading The Public On Team Narratives
      • About 
        • NEW: NBA PLAYER PROPS PACKAGE 2022-23 NOW LIVE
        • Hunting The NCAA - Sleepy's March Madness Wagering Tips
        • Hunting The Pitch - Soccer Betting 101 & The Asia Line
        • Hunting The NHL - Taking Advantage of Backup Goalies
        • Free Podcasts
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  • PREMIUM

    Hunting The NFL: Using Power Ratings to Make Actionable Bets in 2022

    · Steve Rieder,NFL

    Our NFL Premium Package is Now Available for the 2022 season! Get full access to our best bets, given out early in the week, in real time: sides, totals, player props, and more, all in one place, through the end of the Super Bowl. Get $15 OFF with code "NFL15" - offer valid through October 31st

    Editor's Note: Steve Rieder has accumulated a 205-166-1 record, +22.06 units over the course of the 2021 & 2022 NFL seasons. Get access to his full record, pick by pick, on our NFL bets tracker spreadsheet

    NFL POWER RATINGS PRIMER

    Most successful sports handicappers use a quantitative standard for assessing the game.

    In order to do that, it is imperative to use power ratings, also known as 'power rankings,' to identify the point differential between opposing teams. By comparing two teams’ power ratings and accounting for home field advantage, the bettor can objectively determine what the point spread should be and take advantage of any difference in the actual line.

    Early in the year, especially heading into Week 1, power ratings have to account for team’s retirements, player acquisitions and departures, coaching changes, injuries, etc. without much evidence to create their opinion. How the new pieces fit together in practice are largely told via the beat writers’ Twitter accounts.

    What makes things even more convoluted is that most practices are closed off to the public and many even for the reporters themselves. Listening to a coach’s press conference can often shed some light on how a team or player is doing, sure, but how much of that information can be attributed to the truth versus the proverbial coach’s speak? As the year progresses, power ratings become more reliable because there are more data points to fine-tune a team’s rating. This is why we're now at ground zero. Regardless of the difficulty to create, having power ratings is a must to properly handicap the NFL. Below is the first edition of our Betting Predators 2022 NFL Power Ratings. To create the power rated line, take the difference between each team and factor in home field advantage. It is important to remember that power ratings are fluid and should just be the starting point of a handicap when considering a bet. It is also important to note, at this point in the year, power ratings can be extremely temperamental. If a player gets injured, signed, traded, or cut, it can have far reaching implications. Look no further than the Deshaun Watson situation. If Deshaun does not get suspended for Week 1, the Browns power ratings will go through the roof. There are other players that are considering sitting out because of contract negotiations, cluster injuries to position groups, or disappointing/breakout preseason performances. These are the power ratings as of today, but they can and certainly will change as time progresses this offseason. We will update the power ratings when they do.

    POWER RATINGS & THE FUTURE MARKET

    When examining the futures market, you can leverage your Power Ratings to determine win percentage. Below you will see what my power ratings give each team based upon every power rated line for their regular season schedule (PR Win Total). Unabated has an NFL Season Simulator feature that allows you to run 10,000 simulations based on your power ratings. Included in the simulation is HFA, QB injury percentage, and the value of the starting quarterback over the backup. I have added their projected win percentage, as well (UNABATED). After averaging the Power Rated Win Total and the Unabated Win Total (AVG W TOTAL), I compared it to the BetOnline market price and highlighted the differences in the final column (DIFFERENCE). Teams highlighted in red show a negative discrepancy, while green identifies where I am above market. Without fail, the sportsbooks inflate team win totals each and every year. According to the chart below, the market is higher on 22 of the 32 NFL teams than I am.

    Power ratings adjust quite quickly during the regular season. With only Tuesday and Wednesday free of football, sports bettors need to update team’s valuations on the fly. Conversely, in the offseason, there is plenty of time to dissect every minutia of a football team. Football centric handicappers have ample opportunity to do just that. Sharps tweak their power ratings weekly, if not daily, during the summer. When the lines post for Week 1, they are ready to attack. There have already been major week 1 line moves for games that are still over a month away. For instance, Carolina was +4.5 week 1. In anticipation of an inevitable Deshaun Watson suspension, many sharp bettors pounded +3 or better. With the current line of Carolina +1, these bettors were rewarded for their early action. If you missed out on the early flurry of action, it doesn’t mean you are out of luck. However, the closer we get to Week 1, the tighter the lines become. With that in mind, let's take a look at the NFL Week 1 Power Rating discrepancies below. As a reminder, check out my weekly Power Ratings vs. Lines article throughout the 2022 NFL season, where I highlight the discrepancies between my power ratings and the sports book's lines, and where I see value.

    Comparing power ratings between years can be a healthy exercise for a variety of reasons. Most importantly, it allows us to quantify positive and negative change during the offseason. It is important to note that there are a plethora of factors that can substantially impact a team’s power rating, particularly at the end of the regular season. Perhaps none more damning than the Week 18 New York Giants, a team that finds themselves to have the greatest gain from last season. Although the Giants still find themselves considerably below average this season, their increase is based upon last season’s unmitigated disaster. Between a bevy of injuries, embarrassing coaching/play-calling, and a mismanaged roster, by end of the season the Giants had all but surrendered the season, going as far as calling quarterback sneaks on 2nd and 3rd and long. In the offseason, the Giants fired nearly everyone and hired a pair of former Buffalo Bills personnel to stop the bleeding. With GM Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Dabol running the show, there is optimism in East Rutherford. But their rise in the rankings should be viewed more as an indictment on last year’s team more than an indication on this year’s.

    By Steve Rieder

    @AvoidTheVig

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