SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT NEW YORK GIANTS: MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALLL
On back-to-back nights, all eyes will be on the Meadowlands. Let's shift our focus to the game that's likely receiving less attention than ‘Swift-Takes-on-Broadway and the Jets' on NBC – but may offer more profitable opportunity: let’s go to Monday Night Football, the New York Giants hosting the Seattle Seahawks.
NFL PRIMETIME SPORTS BETTING TRENDS
A quick stroll through a historical database might lead one to surmise that the Giants have the edge, considering that since 1989, teams that play on the road on Thursday and then return home for a Monday night game boast a 14-5 ATS record. This includes a 7-1-1 ATS record following a Thursday night loss. However, the impact of road travel spots has been diminishing in recent years, both in the NFL and across other sports.
When you dig deeper past that one negative trend, the scales tip decidedly in favor of the Seahawks at -1.5 or my preferred bet laying -120 on the moneyline. First, any road disadvantage for the Seahawks seems to be more than cancelled out by Seahawks HC Pete Carroll's stellar track record in the Eastern Time Zone. As the head coach of the Seahawks, his teams have posted an astonishing 70% ATS record (28-12-3) when playing in the Eastern Time Zone, including a 4-1 ATS record in prime-time games.
The odds of flipping 28 heads in 40 tries are about 1 in 100, suggesting that either Carroll has been extremely lucky or he has a proven ability to prepare his teams for these situations. Turning to the teams' fundamentals, the Seahawks have the advantage on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Giants are likely to be without star running back Saquon Barkley, a significant loss. While some might argue that the Seahawks' defense is more vulnerable against the pass, ranking 27th in Opponent EPA per dropback compared to 7th in Opponent EPA per run play, the Giants' offensive struggles are likely to negate this potential advantage.
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New York has been hampered by a lack of offensive line continuity and a dearth of downfield weapons. Free-agent acquisition Darren Waller has yet to make a significant impact, and although the return of Andrew Thomas to the offensive line should provide some relief, it's unlikely to be enough to jump-start an offense that has been sputtering and will still be without its most explosive weapon in Saquon Barkley.
Switching focus to the Seahawks' offense, they have been quietly delivering elite performances game after game. Currently, they rank 4th in overall EPA per play, only behind the Dolphins, 49ers, and Chargers. Quarterback Geno Smith has seen a dramatic rise in his QBR over the last two weeks, now ranking 5th in the NFL.
This high-powered offense will be facing a Giants' secondary that ranks 30th in EPA per dropback, a matchup that could spell trouble for New York. Now let's take one last look at the Giants' offensive unit and hone in on their QB. Remember, it was only a little more than a year ago, at the beginning of the 2022 season, that Daniel Jones was ranked as the 30th best QB in the NFL by a 50-person panel of team coaches and executives released by The Athletic.
In the interim, Jones had a career year and the Giants made the playoffs for the first time in a decade. But now that the magic fairy dust has worn off with Brian Daboll's new offense—perhaps deriving simultaneously from Barkley's early exit this season—we are left with a Giants team that has no better than a middling offense and still very few difference-makers on either side of the field. Despite the home-field advantage and the extended rest, give me the better team here in a spot where Pete Carroll has historically dominated.
THE BET: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS MONEY LINE
Take Seattle, lay the -120 on the moneyline
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