By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here
Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our buys and fades for head-to-head matchup bets and DFS strategy from round to round. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others as well, but the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee. We will also refer below to "strokes gained ball striking," which is a combination of approach and off the tee numbers. Now let's dive into how exactly we'll use these numbers below.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained approach, off the tee and/or ball striking numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress more from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals "ball striking") are the "sticky" stats which indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, however we especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
Please Note: The recommended unit sizes below can be easily calculated if you base your "unit size" on either $10 or $100 or $1,000 depending on your bankroll. To figure how much you should put down per bet, just take your typical unit size and then apply the recommendation listed below. For example, if your typical unit size is $100 per best bet, then you should be betting either $5 or $10 on the outright winners and first round leaders listed below. A "0.25 unit" bet would be $25. A "0.5 unit" bet would be $50 and a "0.75 unit" bet would be $75, and so on and so forth. You'll note for each weekend that I typically have at least 75-80% or more of my action on either tournament head to head matchup bets (72 holes) or round by round head to head matchup bets (18 holes). These bets provide us with two-way action (the ability to bet on either side) and the most EV we can get out of our strokes gained ratings model. The difference in unit sizes within our head to head bets will vary depending on how strong a buy/fade or how strong a matchup rating is between two golfers. We'll dive more into the specifics this in future articles as I further explain how to best utilize our strokes gained ratings model for actionable wagers. For now we'll keep things as simple as possible here and list everything by bet type and in order of recommended unit sizes.
If “GOLFER A” has a +5.5 SGR score after round 1 and is facing “GOLFER B” who has -5.5 score after round 1, then this round 2 head to head matchup will rate as a +11 and likely rank as one of best bets we have on the board. Typically we look for matchups that rate as a +4.5 or higher AND involve either one buy or one fade from round to round. If a matchup rates as +4.5 and involves two buys or two fades, we likely will pass on this matchup or make it a smaller bet than normal. If a buy is facing a fade directly, AND/OR if a matchup has a rating of +9 or higher, this will rate strongly as a best bet and we will make it a larger bet than normal. For more on this strategy, just read this article: To view my strokes gained ratings model from The Honda Classic, which includes RD4 data/”All Rounds” data, click here to view the spreadsheet:
NEW RD1 Matchups
(0.75) Woodland > Ancer @ Bet365 -110
(0.75) Woodland > Ortiz @ BR -136
(0.50) Kirk > Wallace @ BR -195
(0.50) Na > Ancer @ BR -109
= 2.5 Units
NEW TNT Matchups
(0.25) Smotherman > Ortiz @ FD -102
= 0.25 Units
NEW First Round Finish Props
(0.25) Woodland T20 @ Bet365 +210
(0.25) Kirk T20 @ Bet365 +250
(0.25) Na T20 @ Bet365 +240
(0.25) Pan @ Bet365 +333
(0.25) N. Taylor @ Bet365 +400
(0.25) Poston @ Bet365 +350
(0.25) Finau T20 @ Bet365 +210
(0.25) Theegala T20 @ Bet365 +333
(0.25) Streb T20 @ Bet365 +400
(0.25) Bramlett T20 @ Bet365 +375
(0.25) Gutschewski T20 @ Bet365 +550
(0.25) Smotherman T20 @ Bet365 +375
= 3 Units
NEW Tournament Props/Tournament Matchups
(0.05) Isidro Benitez Winner @ BR 1,000:1
(0.05) Isidro Benitez FRL @ Bet365 300:1
(0.05) Isidro Benitez Top ROW @ Bet365 140:1
(0.05) Isidro Benitez T5 @ Bet 365 160:1
(0.05) Isidro Benitez 1st Rd T5 @ Bet365 50:1
—
(0.25) N. Taylor Top Canadian @ BO +250
(0.25) Pan Top Asian @ Bet365 +260
(0.50) Pat Perez MISS CUT @ Bet365 +138
(0.75) Winning Golfer From USA @ Bet365 -180
—
(0.75 Units) Woodland > Ancer @ BO -103
(0.25) Theegala > D. Riley @ BO -103
(0.25) Svensson > Pat Perez @ BO -110
= 3 Units
NEW Round 1 Matchups
(1.0 Units) Woodland > Ortiz/McDowell @ BR +120
(1.0 Units) Pan > Reavie/Tway @ DK +110
(0.75) Kirk > Martin/Wallace @ BR +105
(0.75) Theegala > Pat Perez @ BO -115
(0.50) Na > Ortiz @ BO -115
(0.50) Bramlett > Lipsky @ BO -110
(0.25) Finau > Ancer @ BO -120
(0.25) Svensson > Jaeger @ BO -140
= 5 Units
Tournament Finish Props (0.25 Units Each):
Woodland T10 @ Bet365 +240
Woodland T20 @ Bet365 +120
Na T20 @ Bet365 +130
Kirk T20 @ Bet365 +163
= 1 Unit
Nationality/Novelty Finish Props
(0.20) Finau Top USA @ Bet365 12:1
(0.15) Na Top USA @ Bet365 14:1
(0.15) Woodland Top USA @ Bet365 14:1
(0.10) Kirk Top USA @ Bet365 20:1
(0.05) Theegala Top USA @ Bet365 40:1
(0.05) Poston Top USA @ Bet365 50:1
(0.05) Smotherman Top USA @ Bet365 70:1
(0.05) Streb Top USA @ Bet365 90:1
(0.05) Bramlett Top USA @ Bet365 90:1
(0.05) Gutschewski Top USA @ Bet365 200:1
(0.05) Pan “Winner Without Rahm” @ Bet365 50:1
(0.05) N. Taylor “Winner Without Rahm” @ Bet365 100:1
= 1 Unit
Outright Winner Bets:
(0.15) Woodland @ CZ 25:1
(0.15) Na @ BR 28:1
(0.15) Kirk @ DK 35:1
—
(0.05) Pan @ Bet365 70:1
(0.05) N. Taylor @ CZ 125:1
(0.05) Poston @ DK 130:1
—
(0.15) Finau @ DK 25:1
(0.05) Theegala @ DK 80:1
(0.05) Smotherman @ CZ 125:1
(0.05) Streb @ Bet365 150:1
(0.05) Bramlett @ DK 200:1
(0.05) Gutschewski @ Bet365 350:1
= 1 Unit
First Round Leader Bets:
(0.15) Woodland @ Bet365 40:1
(0.15) Na @ Bet365 40:1
(0.10) Kirk @ Bet365 50:1
—
(0.10) Pan @ MB 70:1
(0.05) N. Taylor @ Bet365 90:1
(0.05) Poston @ DK 90:1
—
(0.10) Finau @ DK 40:1
(0.10) Theegala @ DK 75:1
(0.05) Smotherman @ Bet365 90:1
(0.05) Streb @ MB 110:1
(0.05) Bramlett @ DK 110:1
(0.05) Gutschewski @ Bet365 170:1
= 1 Unit
Full Pre-Tournament Betting Card Breakdown:
- 4 Tournament Matchup Bets = 1.5 Units
- 12 First Round Matchup Bets = 7.5 Units
- 12 First Round Finish Bets = 3 Units
- 12 First Round Leaders Bets = 1 Unit
- 12 Nationality (USA) Finish Props = 1 Unit
- 12 Outright Winner Bets = 1 Unit
- 13 "Other" Tournament Finish Bets = 3 Units
Total = 18 Units
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
*Asterisk(s) indicates the number of statistical thresholds a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade"
Strokes Gained Putting
Strokes Gained Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Tee To Green
Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green
SGR = Strokes Gained Rating
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
FRL = First Round Leader
SRL = Second Round Leader
TRL = Third Round Leader
DK = DraftKings
FD = FanDuel
CZ = Caesars
BR = BetRivers
BO = BetOnline
DSI = BetDSI
MB = MyBookie
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, DFS strategy and more, visit www.bettingpredators.com