BETTING PREDATORS
  • Home
  • Tools 
    • NFL PREMIUM BEST BETS RECORD TRACKER (2021-2023)
    • Join our FREE betting community on Discord
    • Subscribe to our FREE weekly betting newsletter on Substack
    • NFL Beat Reporters to Follow on Twitter for all 32 Teams
  • Premium 
    • NFL PREMIUM BEST BETS RECORD TRACKER (2021-2023)
    • NEW: NFL Draft Best Bets Premium Package 2023
    • NEW: NFL "Early Bird" Best Bets Premium Package 2023
    • NEW: PGA Tour/Golf Best Bets Premium Package 2023
    • NEW: NBA Player Props & Best Bets Premium Package 2023
  • Strategy 
    • How to win at sports betting: A guide to sustained profitability
    • Hunting The NBA - Using Status Updates For Prop Bets
    • Hunting The NCAA - Sleepy's March Madness Wagering Tips
    • How To Bet Golf Using Strokes Gained Data (PGA)
  • About 
    • Free Podcasts
    • Mission
    • Team
  • …  
    • Home
    • Tools 
      • NFL PREMIUM BEST BETS RECORD TRACKER (2021-2023)
      • Join our FREE betting community on Discord
      • Subscribe to our FREE weekly betting newsletter on Substack
      • NFL Beat Reporters to Follow on Twitter for all 32 Teams
    • Premium 
      • NFL PREMIUM BEST BETS RECORD TRACKER (2021-2023)
      • NEW: NFL Draft Best Bets Premium Package 2023
      • NEW: NFL "Early Bird" Best Bets Premium Package 2023
      • NEW: PGA Tour/Golf Best Bets Premium Package 2023
      • NEW: NBA Player Props & Best Bets Premium Package 2023
    • Strategy 
      • How to win at sports betting: A guide to sustained profitability
      • Hunting The NBA - Using Status Updates For Prop Bets
      • Hunting The NCAA - Sleepy's March Madness Wagering Tips
      • How To Bet Golf Using Strokes Gained Data (PGA)
    • About 
      • Free Podcasts
      • Mission
      • Team
PREMIUM PICKS
BETTING PREDATORS
  • Home
  • Tools 
    • NFL PREMIUM BEST BETS RECORD TRACKER (2021-2023)
    • Join our FREE betting community on Discord
    • Subscribe to our FREE weekly betting newsletter on Substack
    • NFL Beat Reporters to Follow on Twitter for all 32 Teams
  • Premium 
    • NFL PREMIUM BEST BETS RECORD TRACKER (2021-2023)
    • NEW: NFL Draft Best Bets Premium Package 2023
    • NEW: NFL "Early Bird" Best Bets Premium Package 2023
    • NEW: PGA Tour/Golf Best Bets Premium Package 2023
    • NEW: NBA Player Props & Best Bets Premium Package 2023
  • Strategy 
    • How to win at sports betting: A guide to sustained profitability
    • Hunting The NBA - Using Status Updates For Prop Bets
    • Hunting The NCAA - Sleepy's March Madness Wagering Tips
    • How To Bet Golf Using Strokes Gained Data (PGA)
  • About 
    • Free Podcasts
    • Mission
    • Team
  • …  
    • Home
    • Tools 
      • NFL PREMIUM BEST BETS RECORD TRACKER (2021-2023)
      • Join our FREE betting community on Discord
      • Subscribe to our FREE weekly betting newsletter on Substack
      • NFL Beat Reporters to Follow on Twitter for all 32 Teams
    • Premium 
      • NFL PREMIUM BEST BETS RECORD TRACKER (2021-2023)
      • NEW: NFL Draft Best Bets Premium Package 2023
      • NEW: NFL "Early Bird" Best Bets Premium Package 2023
      • NEW: PGA Tour/Golf Best Bets Premium Package 2023
      • NEW: NBA Player Props & Best Bets Premium Package 2023
    • Strategy 
      • How to win at sports betting: A guide to sustained profitability
      • Hunting The NBA - Using Status Updates For Prop Bets
      • Hunting The NCAA - Sleepy's March Madness Wagering Tips
      • How To Bet Golf Using Strokes Gained Data (PGA)
    • About 
      • Free Podcasts
      • Mission
      • Team
PREMIUM PICKS

"Money Picks" Player Props Podcast Written Recap - Week 6 (Free Preview)

· NFL,Fantasy,DFS,Chris Dell,Sleepy J

By Mike D'Angelo

@DAngelo7M

PLEASE NOTE: This article is a FREE preview of our new NFL 2021 In-Season Package, which includes best bet player props from the Betting Predators team for every primetime game and every main Sunday slate, as well as access to our private betting Discord channel for subscribers and much more. Click here to learn more about our in-season package and how to get access to our NFL Power Ratings, DFS Strategy & Top Plays for every slate, Projected Line Movements/Lookahead Lines and information about our top player props and best bets as we make our wagers throughout the week. Any questions? Please email us at bettingpredators@gmail.com or shoot us a DM/message or comment on Twitter @BetPredators.

DISCLAIMER: Some lines may change from the time of podcast recording and publishing of this written recap before Sunday. Also, please know that that these are not official plays. I only give a very simplified version of Chris Dell and Sleepy's handicaps here below, simply because there will be stuff you may miss if you don't listen to the podcast and because we only have so much time to digest this in written form. Be sure to listen to the Betting Predators' weekly Player Props "Money Picks" podcast every Friday and also read Chris Dell's NFL Player Props column (released Sunday morning on the website) for his official plays.

In order to listen to the full audio version of this podcast, scroll to the bottom of this page or click here to listen to it in its entirely on Spotify. You can also subscribe to our free blog by scrolling below and entering your email address in order to receive an email alert every time we publish a new article on the site.

MIA vs JAX (+3) – O/U 47

Chris Leans: Robinson Ov 72.5 Rush Yards + Rush Attempts Ov

Analysis:

  • Projection is in line with number

  • Off massive game

  • Showed some life

Notes: Both teams have defences that have been targeted for bets in the prop market. Jags 29th overall in coverage (PFF), bottom tier pass rush and run defence. Pass happy game script for the dolphins in this spot. Sleepy agrees with Chris but has nothing on the game.

HOU vs IND (-10) – O/U 43.5

Chris Leans Taylor Ov Rush Yards + Mark Ingram Ov Carries

Analysis:

  • HOU 27th run defence

  • Salty after showing vs BAL

  • Have a chance to beat down on HOU and gain momentum

  • HOU flying high after performance against NE

  • Ingrams share has gone up for couple weeks

  • Only games he hasn’t had the ball much were blow ups

Notes: Sleepy says IND is healthy and he sides with them in this game but is unsure of laying the number. IND salty after last performance. Mentions double dipping with certain IND players. Colts have a top 5 run defence, Hou is 27th in run defence. Positive for Taylor to get going. Brandon Cooks trend is down under Mills. Sleepy seems to agree with Ingram pick.

GB vs CHI (+5.5) – O/U 44.5

Chris Likes: Aaron Jones Ov 53.5 Rush Yards

Analysis:

  • Likes him to crack 60

  • Has not been needed a lot this year

  • 67+ yards in 3 out of last four

  • Bears have 20th run defence

  • May also double dip with Dillon

Notes: Chicago does have a question mark on their running back situation currently. Sleepy seems to only be looking at Adams if anyone. Green bay slow pace, conservative game plan for fields, under passing attempts (30.5) for fields is a possibility.

WAS vs KC (-6.5) – O/U 55

Chris Likes: Darrell Williams Ov 10.5 Rushing attempts + Lean to McLaurin Ov Yards + Likes McLaurin Longest Reception Ov 25.5 Yards + Seals-Jones Ov 34.5 Yards + Seals-Jones Ov 3.5 Catches

Analysis:

  • Outside week 5, they have been feeding RBs

  • Expected to take 70% - 75%

  • Projected at 13-14 carries

  • Also like the prop on 11.5 at even money

  • KC #1 in NFL for giving up pass completions of 20+ Yards

  • Usage going up big for Seals-Jones

  • Huge value and great match up

Notes: Want to stack this game in DFS. Most likely to see passing efficiency for KC, and passing Volume for WAS. Very poor secondaries in this game – WAS 30th in Coverage rate, KC is ranked 24th. Both teams have been torched. Ricky Seales-Jones is big chalk play in DFS. Match up suits him. Everyone will try to own him at his value.

LAR (-10) vs NYG – O/U 48.5

Notes: Hard to bet anything right now due to the question marks surrounding who will playing come game time. If NYG guys play then Chris likes Stafford Ov passing yards for the game. Lean with Michel and Henderson Ov rushing yards. Giving them a break and breaking up work load. Sleepy seems to lean with the Under on Henderson. Wait and see type of game at the time of recording.

CIN vs DET (+3.5) – O/U 47

Sleepy Likes: DET ML + DET (+3.5)

Analysis:

  • Motivated scrappy team

  • DET @ home

  • Want to prove something to themselves and fans

Chris Likes: Ja’Marr Chase Longest Rec Ov 26.5 Yards

Analysis:

  • Lions dead last in coverage this season

  • 34+ yard reception in every game this year

  • Tee Higgins back in the offence

  • If the lions are competitive then it leads to more throwing needed by Bengals

Notes: Sleepy thinks that this is a game the Lions win. Big motivational spot for them off of emotional press conference. Avoidthevig pick: St. Brown Ov 4.5 Catches.

BAL vs LAC (+2.5) – O/U 51

Sleepy Likes: Mark Andrews Ov 60.5 Rec Yards

Analysis:

  • Break out game last game

  • He was the guy who was moving the chains

  • Why not go back to the well? (Lamar comfort blanket)

  • Still in a buy low scenario

Chris Likes: Lamar Jackson Ov Passing Yards + Brown longest reception Ov 23.5 Yards

Analysis:

  • Every stat for Jacksons passing has gone up this year up to this point

  • Due to poor defence, they are likely going to need to throw the ball down field

  • Jackson has a tax on his number due to the years of not being able to throw the ball well

  • 15-20 Difference on his passing projections

  • Brown has had 29+ yard rec in every game

  • Chargers do limit big plays better than most

  • 37+ yard reception in 4 straight, 29+ in every game, at least 91 Rec yards in last three

Notes: Big stackable game in DFS purposes.

MIN vs CAR (+2.5) – O/U 45.5

Sleepy Likes: Sam Darnold Un 261 Passing Yards

Analysis:

  • Not buying into the hype

  • Missing receivers

  • MIN defence possibly turning the corner

  • McCaffery safety blanket not there

Chris Likes: Robby Anderson Ov 40.5 Rec Yards

Analysis:

  • Not scared on MIN secondary

  • DJ Moore should get attention

  • Coaches have made the comment that they need to feed him more

  • Robby Anderson is the highest paid receiver in this offence

  • If Darnold is struggling he needs to find his top guys

  • Biggest buy low potential

Notes: Key metrics for quite a few players are not heading in the right direction.

ARI vs CLE – O/U 49

Sleepy Likes: James Connor TD

Analysis:

  • Vulture around goal-line

  • Big running game

Chris Likes: Hunt Ov 46.5 Rush Yards + Lean Ov Hopkins Rec Yards + Lean Ov Moore Rec Yards

Analysis:

  • ARI not good against the run

  • Split back field essentially

  • As of writing this recap Chubb has been listed as OUT

  • Everything is increasing for Hopkins

  • Potential is there for his production

Notes: High wind game. A lot of people are looking at Njoku. A lot of lines are not up due to the weather. CLE has a similar game match up as the last weeks. Rondale Moore is also a target for this game as all his number are trending up. If Kyler is banged up then he could be seeing a lot of production in the shallow runs. Chris agrees with James Connor TD prop.

DAL vs NE(+3.5) – O/U 51.5

Chris Likes: Pollard Ov Rush Yards

Analysis:

  • 60+ rush yards in 4 straights

  • DAL has #1 Run block in NFL

  • NE Run defence is nothing to worry about in this match up

Notes: Sleepy is backing off CeeDee Lamb. Go to the well (Zeke) until the well runs dry. NE surprisingly good against the TE position. Lean under for Shultz. Chris recommends to sell high on Shultz.

DEN vs LV (+3.5) – O/U 43.5

Sleepy Leans: Teddy Bridgewater Un pass attempts + Both DEN RBs Ov Rush Yards

Analysis:

  • Not much up for this game

  • LV are either going to be amazing or poor; most likely poor

  • Whole situation is atrocious

  • Denver Defence is for real

Chris Likes: Henry Ruggs Longest Reception Ov 24.5 Yards + Pizza bet on Ruggs Ov 2.5 Catches

Analysis:

  • 23+ yard catch or more in every game

  • Broncos seem prone to bigger plays

  • Carr should be able to get one big play

  • As the weeks have gone on, big plays have been quite frequent when playing Denver

  • Good value on the number here

Notes: If this game goes south then the team will fall under tremendous media pressure. Either they are going to pick each other up or get run over. Broncos are going to have to run it in this match up.

Subscribe
Previous
Sharps vs. Squares Report: NFL Week 6 Ticket/Money Counts...
Next
NFL Week 6: Best Bets/Player Props Cheat Sheet ("The...
 Return to site
Cancel
All Posts
×

Almost done…

We just sent you an email. Please click the link in the email to confirm your subscription!

OK

    Home
    Subscribe
    Articles
    Contact