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DISCLAIMER: Some lines may change from the time of podcast recording and publishing of this written recap before Sunday. Also, please know that that these are not official plays. I only give a very simplified version of Chris Dell and Sleepy's handicaps here below, simply because there will be stuff you may miss if you don't listen to the podcast and because we only have so much time to digest this in written form. Be sure to listen to the Betting Predators' weekly Player Props "Money Picks" podcast every Friday and also read Chris Dell's NFL Player Props column (released Sunday morning on the website) for his official plays.
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MIA vs JAX (+3) – O/U 47
Chris Leans: Robinson Ov 72.5 Rush Yards + Rush Attempts Ov
Projection is in line with number
Off massive game
Showed some life
Notes: Both teams have defences that have been targeted for bets in the prop market. Jags 29th overall in coverage (PFF), bottom tier pass rush and run defence. Pass happy game script for the dolphins in this spot. Sleepy agrees with Chris but has nothing on the game.
HOU vs IND (-10) – O/U 43.5
Chris Leans Taylor Ov Rush Yards + Mark Ingram Ov Carries
HOU 27th run defence
Salty after showing vs BAL
Have a chance to beat down on HOU and gain momentum
HOU flying high after performance against NE
Ingrams share has gone up for couple weeks
Only games he hasn’t had the ball much were blow ups
Notes: Sleepy says IND is healthy and he sides with them in this game but is unsure of laying the number. IND salty after last performance. Mentions double dipping with certain IND players. Colts have a top 5 run defence, Hou is 27th in run defence. Positive for Taylor to get going. Brandon Cooks trend is down under Mills. Sleepy seems to agree with Ingram pick.
GB vs CHI (+5.5) – O/U 44.5
Chris Likes: Aaron Jones Ov 53.5 Rush Yards
Likes him to crack 60
Has not been needed a lot this year
67+ yards in 3 out of last four
Bears have 20th run defence
May also double dip with Dillon
Notes: Chicago does have a question mark on their running back situation currently. Sleepy seems to only be looking at Adams if anyone. Green bay slow pace, conservative game plan for fields, under passing attempts (30.5) for fields is a possibility.
WAS vs KC (-6.5) – O/U 55
Chris Likes: Darrell Williams Ov 10.5 Rushing attempts + Lean to McLaurin Ov Yards + Likes McLaurin Longest Reception Ov 25.5 Yards + Seals-Jones Ov 34.5 Yards + Seals-Jones Ov 3.5 Catches
Outside week 5, they have been feeding RBs
Expected to take 70% - 75%
Projected at 13-14 carries
Also like the prop on 11.5 at even money
KC #1 in NFL for giving up pass completions of 20+ Yards
Usage going up big for Seals-Jones
Huge value and great match up
Notes: Want to stack this game in DFS. Most likely to see passing efficiency for KC, and passing Volume for WAS. Very poor secondaries in this game – WAS 30th in Coverage rate, KC is ranked 24th. Both teams have been torched. Ricky Seales-Jones is big chalk play in DFS. Match up suits him. Everyone will try to own him at his value.
LAR (-10) vs NYG – O/U 48.5
Notes: Hard to bet anything right now due to the question marks surrounding who will playing come game time. If NYG guys play then Chris likes Stafford Ov passing yards for the game. Lean with Michel and Henderson Ov rushing yards. Giving them a break and breaking up work load. Sleepy seems to lean with the Under on Henderson. Wait and see type of game at the time of recording.
CIN vs DET (+3.5) – O/U 47
Sleepy Likes: DET ML + DET (+3.5)
Motivated scrappy team
DET @ home
Want to prove something to themselves and fans
Chris Likes: Ja’Marr Chase Longest Rec Ov 26.5 Yards
Lions dead last in coverage this season
34+ yard reception in every game this year
Tee Higgins back in the offence
If the lions are competitive then it leads to more throwing needed by Bengals
Notes: Sleepy thinks that this is a game the Lions win. Big motivational spot for them off of emotional press conference. Avoidthevig pick: St. Brown Ov 4.5 Catches.
BAL vs LAC (+2.5) – O/U 51
Sleepy Likes: Mark Andrews Ov 60.5 Rec Yards
Break out game last game
He was the guy who was moving the chains
Why not go back to the well? (Lamar comfort blanket)
Still in a buy low scenario
Chris Likes: Lamar Jackson Ov Passing Yards + Brown longest reception Ov 23.5 Yards
Every stat for Jacksons passing has gone up this year up to this point
Due to poor defence, they are likely going to need to throw the ball down field
Jackson has a tax on his number due to the years of not being able to throw the ball well
15-20 Difference on his passing projections
Brown has had 29+ yard rec in every game
Chargers do limit big plays better than most
37+ yard reception in 4 straight, 29+ in every game, at least 91 Rec yards in last three
Notes: Big stackable game in DFS purposes.
MIN vs CAR (+2.5) – O/U 45.5
Sleepy Likes: Sam Darnold Un 261 Passing Yards
Not buying into the hype
MIN defence possibly turning the corner
McCaffery safety blanket not there
Chris Likes: Robby Anderson Ov 40.5 Rec Yards
Not scared on MIN secondary
DJ Moore should get attention
Coaches have made the comment that they need to feed him more
Robby Anderson is the highest paid receiver in this offence
If Darnold is struggling he needs to find his top guys
Biggest buy low potential
Notes: Key metrics for quite a few players are not heading in the right direction.
ARI vs CLE – O/U 49
Sleepy Likes: James Connor TD
Vulture around goal-line
Big running game
Chris Likes: Hunt Ov 46.5 Rush Yards + Lean Ov Hopkins Rec Yards + Lean Ov Moore Rec Yards
ARI not good against the run
Split back field essentially
As of writing this recap Chubb has been listed as OUT
Everything is increasing for Hopkins
Potential is there for his production
Notes: High wind game. A lot of people are looking at Njoku. A lot of lines are not up due to the weather. CLE has a similar game match up as the last weeks. Rondale Moore is also a target for this game as all his number are trending up. If Kyler is banged up then he could be seeing a lot of production in the shallow runs. Chris agrees with James Connor TD prop.
DAL vs NE(+3.5) – O/U 51.5
Chris Likes: Pollard Ov Rush Yards
60+ rush yards in 4 straights
DAL has #1 Run block in NFL
NE Run defence is nothing to worry about in this match up
Notes: Sleepy is backing off CeeDee Lamb. Go to the well (Zeke) until the well runs dry. NE surprisingly good against the TE position. Lean under for Shultz. Chris recommends to sell high on Shultz.
DEN vs LV (+3.5) – O/U 43.5
Sleepy Leans: Teddy Bridgewater Un pass attempts + Both DEN RBs Ov Rush Yards
Not much up for this game
LV are either going to be amazing or poor; most likely poor
Whole situation is atrocious
Denver Defence is for real
Chris Likes: Henry Ruggs Longest Reception Ov 24.5 Yards + Pizza bet on Ruggs Ov 2.5 Catches
23+ yard catch or more in every game
Broncos seem prone to bigger plays
Carr should be able to get one big play
As the weeks have gone on, big plays have been quite frequent when playing Denver
Good value on the number here
Notes: If this game goes south then the team will fall under tremendous media pressure. Either they are going to pick each other up or get run over. Broncos are going to have to run it in this match up.