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PREMIUM

NFL Actionable Stats: Key Numbers to Know Before Betting in Week 15

Greg Frank & Chris Dell highlight their key and actionable situational spots for Sunday's NFL slate:

· NFL,Greg Frank,Chris Dell,Fantasy

Our NFL Premium Package is Now Available for the 2022 season! Get full access to our best bets, given out early in the week, in real time: sides, totals, player props, and more, through the end of the Super Bowl.

Another Fantasy Relevant Pass Catcher for Gang Green?

Can you believe we’re advocating for not one but two relevant pass catchers in the New York Jets offense? That’s where we’re at with Mike White looking good to go for a critical Week 15 game at MetLife Stadium against Detroit. What a difference a quarterback change makes for Elijah Moore who did not hold back his disdain for Zach Wilson and how the offense was functioning for the Jets early in the season. Moore matched Garrett Wilson’s team high six receptions in a 20-12 loss against Buffalo. The six catches were also a season high for the wide receiver out of Ole Miss. Moore had a 74% route participation in Week 13 and last week against the Bills that number went up to 92% with Corey Davis out. Davis’s status will certainly be worth monitoring if you’re bullish on Moore’s prospects for Week 15. Regardless, the Lions have had their fair share of struggles on defense this season so Moore is certainly worth a plug and play for those in a bind with the fantasy playoffs beginning or just looking for a cheaper DFS option.

Steer Clear of this Buffalo Wide Receiver

We like to look at the glass half full so we’re often highlighting good performances and players worth investing in moving forward in this article. However, we’re going to caution you on a different wide receiver in the AFC East now. Coming into the season many people expected Josh Allen to zing the ball all over the field and not every target could go to Stefon Diggs. This made Gabriel Davis an intriguing pick in the 5th to 7th round of a lot of drafts and also had to intrigue others in Dawson Knox as a late-round tight end target. If you haven’t already done so, it’s time to remove your preseason expectations as to what this Buffalo offense is. We mentioned last week that the Bills running backs might be more involved in their game plan for the rest of the regular season as the coaching staff might be attempting to manage Josh Allen’s reps amidst an elbow problem. Davis is the biggest negative by product from that offensive shift for the Bills. He’s averaging just 15% targets per route run and 1.45 receiving yards per route run. Does a game in the Buffalo snow on Saturday night against Miami seem like the spot for Davis to turn things around? I don’t think so. Stay away from him this week and even if you’re using him in future weeks, understand you’re just looking for one big play at this point.

What to Make of JK Dobbins’ Return

So Lamar Jackson is injured and JK Dobbins is back. That should be good things for Dobbins’ workload after he turned 15 carries into 120 rushing yards last week in Pittsburgh, right? Well…maybe. While the third-year running back out of Ohio State made the most of his workload last week, it’s important to realize he was only on the field for 42.6% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps. Gus Edwards is back and Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill seem to have solidified themselves as passing down options for Greg Roman’s offense. Several fantasy analysts highlighted a long run from Dobbins last week in which he was chased down by Minkah Fitzpatrick as evidence that he’s still not 100%. Dobbins probably won’t be at 100% for the rest of 2022 and should be treated as more of a touchdown dependent play than a usage machine.

Picking Up the Pieces in the Seattle Backfield

As we’ve mentioned with several tidbits in this column in the past, it’s important to monitor injury reports as the week progresses as the status of some players can greatly impact the usage of others. With Seattle on a short week playing on Thursday in Week 15 and having been down Kenneth Walker III and DeeJay Dallas last week, it’s possible the Seahawks turn to Travis Homer again for a heavy chunk of the running back touches. Last week against the Panthers, Homer played a whopping 90.7% of Seattle’s offensive snaps. Nine carries for 26 yards might not look all that appealing, ditto for two catches for eight yards, but the point we’re making is, Homer vastly outsnapped Tony Jones Jr and fantasy players should know good situations and high usage rates of players can make less-skilled players fantasy relevant. We simply wanted to note that Homer dominated running back snaps and touches last week and wouldn’t blame anyone that used him as a flex play in Week 15 if Walker and Dallas are sidelined. It’s certainly a situation to keep tabs on between now and kickoff.

By Greg Frank

@G_Frank6

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