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PREMIUM

NFL Actionable Stats: Key Numbers to Know Before Betting in Week 17

Greg Frank & Chris Dell highlight their key and actionable situational spots for Sunday's NFL slate:

· NFL,Greg Frank,Chris Dell,Fantasy

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Don’t Let The QB Change in Washington Impact a Certain Rookie

We’re still scratching our heads over how Washington thinks it’s better to go with Carson Wentz this late in the season over Taylor Heinicke. Perhaps there’s no difference, but as the saying goes, if you have two quarterbacks, then you don’t have any. It’s likely that’s exactly what’s happened with Washington this season, but that’s also why you should stick with the few Washington pass catchers that have fantasy relevance. I doubt Terry McLaurin requires much thought from a start/sit perspective but we’ve highlighted Jahan Dotson in the past in this article this season and you should use him if you’re in the championship or third-place game of a deeper league or if you’re just looking for a cheaper DFS option this week. Saturday’s loss in San Francisco was the third straight game in which Dotson had at least a 20% target share. The sample size with Wentz under center is minimal anyway and it’s worth noting that not every rookie jumps right in from Week 1 and produces like he never missed a beat from college, thus further devaluing the early season snaps Dotson played with Wentz at QB for the Commanders. Simply put, Dotson’s uptick in targets in recent weeks is the sign of a first-round pick playing like a first-round pick. When it comes to wide receivers, some are talented enough to be good with a variety of different quarterbacks. It’s too early to say Dotson is QB proof, but it’s also obvious to most that no pass catcher should be dependent on the likes of either Heinicke or Wentz when it comes to fantasy success or failure. Therefore, if you’ve been using Dotson in recent weeks, there’s no reason to change your mind.

Another Week, Another Atlanta Rookie to Highlight

We mentioned Drake London dominating the Falcons from a target standpoint in the passing game last week. Now it’s time to look at the backfield for the dirty birds, who are finally eliminated from playoff contention. I think everyone knew Atlanta needed to look to the future but that only gets amplified when the playoffs are officially an afterthought. That means you should continue your movement if you’re a team like the Falcons and it looks like that’s what Atlanta is doing. Rookie Tyler Allgeier played 42 snaps in last week’s road loss in Baltimore to 26 for Cordarelle Patterson. Allgeier was far more efficient on the ground averaging 4.1 yards per carry to just 2.1 for Patterson. At 31 years old, Patterson’s best days are behind him. We all know that. Allgeier might be the running back of the future for the Falcons and has a shot at 1,000 rushing yards with a strong finish to the regular season. This week, he gets a Cardinals team that just allowed 162 total yards to Leonard Fournette. Fire him up in all formats.

A Highly Drafted Running Back is Finally Playing Like One

If you took Cam Akers in the third or fourth round of your fantasy draft this season and you’re still playing a meaningful game this late, congratulations on some excellent fantasy managing elsewhere. Akers has been one of the biggest busts of this fantasy season but the last four weeks for the Rams have seen the Florida State product handle 65% of the carries. Akers was a top 10 running back in two of those four weeks and finished just outside the top 20 in weekly scoring in the other two weeks. Scoring as a low-end RB2/high-end flex still probably isn’t what you paid for on draft day, but he’s certainly been a playable fantasy asset for a month now which is more than you could say for most of the season prior. He’s even running far more routes than usually with a 60% route participation in back-to-back games. The Rams have been competitive for several games recently despite having no playoff hopes for the better part of the last two months. Close games are always good for running backs in fantasy as it keeps the run involved on the call sheet for playcallers. Akers is finally at that point of weekly trust and again, if you’ve made it this far with him, or bought low on him in a midseason trade expecting a revival, good for you.

Wrapping Up with Another Rookie Wide Receiver

I’m not sure how the offensive rookie of the year race is going to end, but I’d bang the drum for Garrett Wilson any day of the week. This year’s 10th overall pick has played with three quarterbacks and is set to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards on Sunday in Seattle. By now, if you’ve rostered Wilson in a re-draft league, you should know how much better his numbers are with Mike White at quarterback over Zach Wilson. To take it one step further, his numbers with Joe Flacco are even drastically better than Wilson! With either White or Flacco at QB for the Jets, Wilson is averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game. That’s more than double the 8.9 he averaged with Wilson in 2022. Again, you should know this if you’ve had Wilson all season in a re-draft league, but if last week’s rough game against Jacksonville combined with a tough matchup against the Seahawks has you thinking twice, I’m here to tell you to stop. Wilson should finish as a WR1 this week and you should not hesitate to pony up for him in DFS.

By Greg Frank

@G_Frank6

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