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NFL Betting Cheat Sheet: Biggest OL/DL Pass Blocking Mismatches (Week 16)

Ben Martinez breaks down our weekly betting and player props cheat sheet to identify the top OL/DL advantages and disadvantages, for pass blocking, across the NFL:

· Chris Dell,Cheat Sheet,Ben Martinez,NFL

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TOP PASS RUSH ADVANTAGES

Rams -17.3 vs Broncos Pass Rush

Cowboys -16 vs Eagles Pass Rush

Commanders -13.7 at 49ers Pass Rush

Titans -13.7 vs Texans Pass Rush

Bengals -11.7 at Patriots Pass Rush

Los Angeles Rams -17.3 vs Denver Broncos

Los Angeles enters this week with the third worst pass blocking average according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders ranks the Rams the lowest at pass protection at 31, Pro Football Focus grades Los Angeles 29th, but ESPN ranks the Rams  pass block win rate the highest at 19. ESPN PBWR may be the highest ranked out of the three but not a single Ram is in the top 10 at any position for PBWR. PFF can only grade three of the five Rams offensive linemen due to injuries. Coleman Shelton grades as the 19th best guard at pass blocking, but he serve as the starting center this week. The other two gradable linemen are below average at pass protection.

The Broncos have the sixth highest pass rush average this week according to our NFL Betting/Prop Cheat Sheet. Pro Football Focus grades Denver the lowest at 14, Football Outsiders has the Broncos at 10, and ESPN is the highest on the Broncos pass rush with a pass rush win rate rank of three. PFF has only three of the Broncos front seven with an average grade at pass rush, while the rest grade below average. Defensive tackle D.J. Jones graded the highest at 42nd. Denver doesn't have an active player on ESPN's PRWR ranking at either position.

Dallas Cowboys -16 vs Philadelphia Eagles

The Cowboys face the #1 pass rush defense this week at home. All three rankings are far apart from one another. Football Outsiders ranks the Cowboy's pass protection the highest at fourth overall, while Pro Football Focus is more towards the middle at 18, ESPN's pass block win rate ranking is the lowest at 29th. Guard Zack Martin is the only Cowboy on ESPN's PBWR ranking fifth at his position. PFF grades both guards the highest on the team. Conner McGovern and Zack Martin are graded the 18th and eighth best pass blocking guard.

Philadelphia is the #1 pass rush defense this week. PFF, Football Outsiders, and ESPN PRWR all rank the Eagles first. Led by defensive tackle Javon Hargrave who is the fourth highest graded player at his position per PFF, followed by Haason Reddick who is sixth and Josh Sweat the 17th highest graded edge rusher per PFF. The rest of the Eagles front seven all grade higher than average at their position. ESPN's pass rush win rate ranking has all three of these same players on their top 10 list at their respective positions. Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat rank third and seventh at edge rusher. Javon Hargraves ranks second for defensive tackle.

Washington Commanders -13.7 at San Francisco 49ers

Commanders pass block 20th PFF, 23rd FO, 26th ESPN

49ers pass rush 6th PFF, 14th FO, 8th ESPN

Tennessee Titans -13.7 vs Houston Texans

Titans pass block 32nd PFF, 29th FO, 25th ESPN

Texans pass rush 15th PFF, 20th FO, 12th ESPN

Cincinnati Bengals -11.7 at New England Patriots

Bengals pass block 28th PFF, 19th FO, 30th ESPN

Patriots pass rush 11th PFF, 3rd FO, 28th ESPN

TOP PASS BLOCKING ADVANTAGES

Ravens Pass Blocking +20 vs Falcons

Chiefs Pass Blocking +16 vs Seahawks

Bills Pass Blocking +16 at Bears

Raiders Pass Blocking +13.3 at Steelers

Browns Pass Blocking +12.7 vs Saints

Baltimore Ravens +20 vs Atlanta Falcons

The Ravens are tied with two other teams for the fifth best pass blocking average according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Pro Football Focus and ESPN pass block win rate ranking has the Raven's offensive line ranked second and fifth overall, while Football Outsiders ranks Baltimore low at 21. ESPN's PBWR individual rankings doesn't have a single Raven in the top 10. PFF grades four of the five Raven's offensive linemen 21st or higher at pass blocking. Guard Ben Powers is the #1 overall graded pass blocking guard, Kevin Zeither is graded fourth overall as a guard, tackle Ronnie Stanley is seventh, and tackle Morgan Moses is 21st.

Atlanta has the worst ranked pass rush average according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. ESPN's pass rush win rate ranks the Falcons the highest at 25th. Pro Football Focus grades the Falcons pass rush 31st and Football Outsiders ranks Atlanta dead last at 32nd. Linebacker Rashaan Evans and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett are the two best pass rushers on this front seven. PFF grades Evans 11th out of 54 and Jarrett 12th out of 105. PFF grades the rest of the front seven below average. Grady Jarrett is the 10th best defensive tackle at ESPN's pass rush win rate metric.

Kansas City Chiefs +16 vs Seattle Seahawks

Kansas City has the second best pass protecting offensive line according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. ESPN ranks the Chiefs #1 at pass block win rate, Football Outsiders ranks Kansas City fifth at pass protection, and PFF is the lowest on the Chiefs at 12. ESPN has four of the five Chiefs offensive linemen in the top ten of their position for pass block win rate. Guards Joe Thuney and Trey Smith rank first and fourth, tackle Andew Wylie is seventh, and center Creed Humphries is first at his position. PFF grades guard Joe Thuney and center Creed Humphries above average. Thuney is the second highest graded guard out of 77 and Humphries is the third highest graded center out of 38.

Seattle's young front seven will face their hardest test this weekend against the Chiefs. Football Outsiders has a lot of faith in Seattle with a ranking of 11 at pass rush, but Pro Football Focus and ESPN's pass rush win rate ranking is lower. ESPN ranks the Seahawks 27th and PFF grades them 28th. Edge rusher Uchenna Nwosuis the highest graded pass rusher on Seattle's front seven, graded 25th out of 114 edge rushers. Seattle has two other players that are barely graded above average and the rest are below average pass rushers per PFF. ESPN doesn't have any Seahawks in the top 10 of either PRWR ranking.

Buffalo Bills +16 at Chicago Bears

Bills pass block 23th PFF, 9th FO, 6th ESPN

Bears pass rush 32nd PFF, 31st FO, 23rd ESPN

Las Vegas Raiders +13.3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Raiders pass block 7th PFF, 6th FO, 10th ESPN

Steelers pass rush 22nd PFF, 24th FO, 17th ESPN

Cleveland Browns +12.7 vs New Orleans Saints

Browns pass block 10th PFF, 11th FO, 4th ESPN

Saints pass rush 23rd PFF, 8th FO, 32nd ESPN

By Ben Martinez & Chris Dell

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