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NFL Betting Cheat Sheet: Biggest OL/DL Pass Blocking Mismatches (Week 8)

Ben Martinez breaks down our weekly betting and player props cheat sheet to identify the top OL/DL advantages and disadvantages, for run blocking and pass clocking, across the NFL:

· NFL,Ben Martinez,Cheat Sheet,Chris Dell

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TOP PASS RUSH ADVANTAGES

Bears -19 at Cowboys Pass Rush

Rams -19 vs. 49ers Pass Rush

Colts -13 vs. Commanders Pass Rush

*Chicago T Larry Borom OUT; G Lukas Patrick placed on IR

*Washington LB Cole Holcomb OUT

*San Francisco DT Arik Armstead OUT, LB Dre Greenlaw OUT

Chicago Bears -19 at Dallas Cowboys

For the first time this season we have a unanimous #1 "pass rush" consensus ranking that goes across the board. The Dallas Cowboys are the top ranked defensive pass rushing front seven in the NFL. PFF, Football Outsiders, and ESPN all rank Dallas #1. This Cowboys elite unit is led by Micah Parsons, whom ESPN ranks #1 at pass rush win rate, and his teammate Demarcus Lawrence, who also ranks eighth at pass rush win rate. The one lone bright spot on the Bears offensive line is tackle Larry Borom, who ranks second overall at pass block win rate. According to ESPN, Boron wins 95% of the pass blocking downs he plays. This puts Borom at the same percentage as Eagles tackle Lane Johnson, who gave the two aforementioned Dallas Cowboys edge rushers fits during Week 6 and didn't allow a single sack to either rusher, which is only the second game this season that neither Parsons or Lawrence didn't record a sack. Unfortunately, Borom will miss this week, and this news now puts the Bears at an even bigger disadvantage than the -19 listed above here. If Dallas can build any semblance of a lead and force Justin Fields into a lot of dropbacks, there would certainly be a strong case to bet the Cowboys over their team total sacks, as well as betting Fields' interception prop or H2H INT prop vs. Dak Prescott on DraftKings.

Los Angeles Rams -19 vs. San Francisco 49ers

Los Angeles has had two weeks to prepare for a 49ers front seven that's in the top 10 by all of PFF, Football Outsiders, and ESPN. The 49ers are tied for fourth overall as a pass rushing unit according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet and led by Nick Bosa, who personally ranks ninth at pass rush win rate per ESPN and grades fifth overall on his pass rush grade in the league, according to PFF. The Rams offensive line has sarted five different line combinations in its first six games this season. Nine different offensive linemen have gotten the start due to injuries. These two teams faced off four weeks ago on Monday night, when Stafford was sacked seven times and threw a pick six in the beginning of the game. Los Angeles lost two of their starting offensive linemen last time they faced the 49ers and has lost two more since.

TOP PASS BLOCKING ADVANTAGES

Eagles Pass Blocking +18 vs. Steelers

Browns Pass Blocking +13.3 vs. Bengals

Vikings Pass Blocking +11.3 vs. Cardinals

Panthers Pass Blocking +10 at Falcons

Seahawks Pass Blocking +10 vs. Giants

*Steelers DT Larry Ogunjobi OUT

*Browns G Wyatt Teller DNP Thu/Fri

*Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson DNP Thu/Fri

*Giants LB Oshane Ximines OUT

Philadelphia Eagles +18 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Eagles enter Week 8 off a bye, and by giving their injured offensive linemen an extra week to heal we should see them truly dominate this week. PPF ranks the Eagles at #1 overall at pass blocking, while ESPN rates Philadelphia sixth in pass block win rate (PBWR). The Eagles even have a player at each offensive line position that rates in the top ten at PBWR. Lane Johnson rates fourth at the tackle position individually, while Jason Kelce rates ninth at center and Landon Dickinson rates #1 overall. Hurts should have a clean pocket and time to scramble and/or throw down the field here. Pittsburgh without TJ Watt this season ranks bottom 10 in all three categories of PFF run defense (27th), DVOA run defense (26th) and ESPN's pass rush win rate (29th). Look for the UNDER on Pittsburgh's team sack prop, in a tough road spot here.

Cleveland Browns +13.3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The best offensive pass blocking line in the NFL is that of the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland rates #1 overall at pass block win rate and PFF ranks the Browns second overall as a pass blocking unit. Four of the five Cleveland offensive linemen rank in the top 10 of ESPN's pass block win rate stat, while PFF ranks the Bengals pass rush at a mediocre 13 overall. Football Outsiders ranks this same Cincinnati unit at 27th overall, so there is certainly some variance here and disagreements among the market. Cleveland shouldn't have a problem protecting Jacoby Brissett on Monday night given the data we're looking at, although it doesn't guarantee he'll be efficient with said clean pocket either. We expect the Browns to attack on the ground here, in order to avoid letting Joe Burrow and the Bengals get under shotgun.

By Ben Martinez & Chris Dell

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