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TOP RUN BLOCKING DISADVANTAGES (WORST RUSHING MATCHUPS):
Chargers -24 at 49ers
Raiders -12.7 vs Colts
Colts -10.3 at Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers -24 vs San Francisco 49ers
In what is one of the biggest run blocking disadvantages so far this season the 49ers front seven should be a lock to stop the Chargers run game this Sunday night. Our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet ranks San Francisco the highest run defense this week. #1 overall according to Football Outsiders, fourth at ESPN for run stop win rate who also ranks 49ers defensive end Samson Ebukam fifth highest edge rusher at run stop win rate, and Pro Football Focus has this run defense ranked seventh. PFF also individually grades 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa 3rd overall at run defense along with teammate Fred Warner 17th.
The Chargers have one of the worst run blocking offensive lines in the NFL. Our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet ranks them dead last this week. ESPN also agrees as the Chargers are 32nd in run block win rate, Football Outsiders has Los Angeles ranked 27th, and PFF ranks the Chargers offensive line 31st. At a run blocking grade of 34 out of 76 qualified guards, Zion Johnson is the highest graded offensive lineman for the Chargers.
- SF- DL Arik Armstead
- SF- DL Samson Ebukam
- SF- DL Javon Kinlaw
Las Vegas Raiders -12.7 vs Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts -10.3 at Las Vegas Raiders
Both these offenses will be forced to the air this Sunday. The Raiders have the second biggest disadvantage according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet this week and the Colts are not far behind at third. The highest ranking for Las Vegas is sixth at run block win rate according to ESPN, led by guard Dylan Parham(ranked third RBWR) and tackle Kolton Miller(ranked fourth RBWR).
Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus both rank the Raiders run block towards the bottom at 24th for "FO" and 29th for PFF.
Indianapolis has one of the highest rankings this week at run defense. Football Outsiders ranks the Colts second overall at stopping the run. Pro Football Focus ranks the Colts sixth at run defense and has multiple Colt players graded high at stopping the run. Edge rusher Kwity Paye is graded sixth overall at run defense, both his linemates DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart are graded 15th and 12th overall at defensive tackle. Linebacker Bobby Okereke is graded second overall at run defense at his position. ESPN has the Colts front seven ranked ninth at run stop win rate and defensive tackle Grover Stewart ranks fifth on this list at RSWR.
Unfortunately for Indianapolis they don't open up holes for their running backs as well as they clog them for their opponents. Starting with their highest grade on the list, ESPN has the Colts ranked 23rd at run block win rate, followed by Football Outsiders with a 24th ranking, and PFF ranks the Colts offensive line 29th. Tackle Braden Smith is the highest graded offensive lineman for the Colts, 24th out of 74 tackles is the best Indianapolis has up front. Unfortunately Smith has the task of trying to block PFF highest graded run stopper, Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby and the 10th highest graded run stopping linebacker Denzel Perryman. The Raiders as a unit ranks 13th overall by PFF, and 16th by both Football Outsiders and ESPN. Maxx Crosby ranks fourth overall at edge rusher at run stop win rate by ESPN.
TOP RUN BLOCKING ADVANTAGES (BEST RUSHING MATCHUPS):
Bears +20 vs Lions
Giants +17.3 vs Texans
Cowboys +16.3 at Packers
Chicago Bears +20 vs Detroit Lions
At the start of the season the Bears offensiveline was ranked one of if not the worst unit in the NFL. We now enter week 10 and the Bears have one of the best run blocking lines in the NFL. Our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet ranks the Bears tied for third overall. PFF ranks Chicago second overall with two offensive linemen graded in the top 20 and two more graded in the top 10 at run blocking.
Our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet ranks the Lions front seven third to the bottom at stopping the run. Football Outsiders ranks the Lions dead last at 32nd while both ESPN and PFF has Detroit ranked 24th. There isn't a single player in the Lions front seven that PFF grades above average at run defense.
New York Giants +17.3 vs Houston Texans
Pro Football Focus grades Giants tackle Andrew Thomas #1 overall at his position. Thomas grades fifth at run blocking per PFF and as a unit PFF grades New York 12th at run blocking. ESPN has Thomas eighth overall at run block win rate at his position. Football Outsiders is a bit more generous to the whole team, ranking the Giants second overall at stopping the run.
The Texans on the other hand rank dead last according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Meliek Collins is the lone bright spot for Houston's front seven grading 14th at stopping the run per PFF. PFF ranks the Texans run stoppers dead last at 32nd, Football Outsiders 29th, and ESPN the highest at 23rd in their run stop win rate metric.
- HOU- DT Maliek Collins
Dallas Cowboys +16.3 at Green Bay Packers
Depending on which ranking you are looking at, the Cowboys are as high as third overall at run blocking per Football Outsiders and as low as 16th per Pro Football Focus. Our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet ranks the Cowboys offensive line fifth overall this week. PFF grades tackle Terence Steele the 15th best tackle out of 74 this week and ESPN ranks the other tackle Tyler Smith fifth at run block win rate.
The Packers placed their best run stop win rate linebacker Rashan Gary on IR yesterday. ESPN ranked Green Bay 25th at run stop win rate before Gary was placed on IR. Football Outsiders has the Packers ranked even lower at 28, and PFF has given the Packers the highest rank at 22nd.
- GB- LB Rashan Gary
By Ben Martinez & Chris Dell
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