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TOP RUN BLOCKING DISADVANTAGES (WORST RUSHING MATCHUPS):
Patriots -15 vs Jets
Cardinals -13.3 vs 49ers
Saints -11.3 vs Rams
Chargers -10.7 vs Chiefs
New England Patriots -15 vs New York Jets
The New York Jets have been stuffing the run all year. Our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet has the Jets ranked sixth overall at run defense. Football Outsiders ranks the Jets the lowest at 14th at run defense, ESPN has New York ranked ninth at run stop win rate, and Pro Football Focus grades the Jets fifth overall. Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams grades fourth overall at run defense.
Williams and the rest of the Jets front seven should have an easy time getting by this Patriots offensive line who rank third worst at run blocking average according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet.
ESPN ranks the Patriots run block win rate 31st, Football Outsiders 28th, and Pro Football Focus has the Patriots the highest at 14th. The Patriots might rank low but PFF and ESPN rank two Patriot offensive linemen in the top 10 at their position. Guard Michael Onwenu grades fifth at run blocking for PFF and seventh at ESPN run block win rate and center David Andrews grades ninth per PFF and second overall at RBWR at his position.
Arizona Cardinals -13.3 vs San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers front seven has been one of the best pass rushing and run stopping units in the NFL. Ranked second overall at run defense this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet, San Francisco is also ranked #1 overall by Football Outsiders, fourth at run stop win rate according to ESPN, and PFF has the Niners fifth overall. Edge rusher Nick Bosa grades second overall at run defense and middle linebacker Fred Warner grades 10th overall at run defense at their respective positions. Bosa also ranks ninth overall at run stop win rate according to ESPN.
The Cardinals run blocking is a mix bag so far this season. Football Outsiders ranks Arizona's offensive line fifth at run blocking, but Pro Football Focus has the Cardinals offensive line at 31st for run blocking while ESPN ranks Arizona's run block win rate at 14th. Both of the Cardinals offensive guards ranked eighth and ninth overall at RBWR D.J. Humphries and Kelvin Beachum, but PFF grades both these tackles below average at run blocking.
New Orleans Saints -11.3 vs Los Angeles Rams
- Saints run blocking 25th PFF, 2nd FO, 13th ESPN
- Rams run defense 3rd PFF, 2nd FO, 10th ESPN
Los Angeles Chargers -10.7 vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Chargers run blocking 32nd PFF, 26th FO, 32nd ESPN
- Chiefs run defense 21st PFF, 5th FO, 32nd ESPN
TOP RUN BLOCKING ADVANTAGES (BEST RUSHING MATCHUPS):
Vikings +15.7 vs Cowboys
Bears +15 at Falcons
Giants +14.7 vs Lions
Minnesota Vikings +15.7 vs Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys front seven is night and day when it comes to run and pass defense. Dallas is the best pass rushing team this week in the NFL, but when it comes to stopping the run our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet ranks Da Boys second to the bottom with the Browns. Football Outsiders ranks Dallas 25th at run defense, highest out of the main three. ESPN ranks the Cowboy's 30th at run stop win rate despite edge rusher Demarcus Lawrence ranking #1 overall at RSWR per ESPN. Pro Football Focus grades the Cowboys rush defense 26th overall with Micah Parsons grading the highest at run stopper for Dallas at 24 out of 110.
Minnesota does have a nice advantage over Dallas this week at running the ball but the Vikings run blocking rankings are all over the place. Pro Football Focus ranks Minnesota second overall at run blocking. Football Outsiders rank the Vikings the lowest at 20th overall and ESPN ranks the Vikings run block win rate at 12th. ESPN also ranks center Garrett Bradbury 10th at RBWR. Pro Football Focus grades every single Vikings offensive linemen at least in the top 16 of their position.
- Left Tackle Christian Darrisaw #1 run blocker
- Left Guard Ezra Cleveland #6 run blocker
- Center Garrett Bradbury #10 run blocker
- Right Guard Ed Ingram #16 run blocker
- Right Tackle Brian O'Neill #8 run blocker
Chicago Bears +15 at Atlanta Falcons
11 weeks ago Chicago ranked dead last or at least near the bottom as the worst offensive line in the NFL. Going into week 11 Pro Football Focus grades the Bears the third best run blocking offensive line and ESPN and Football Outsiders rank the Bears seventh overall. ESPN has both of the Bears starting guards in the top 10 of their run block win rate. Cody Whitehair is second and Michael Schofield is fourth overall.
The good news for the Falcons is their run defense is better than their pass rush. PFF grades Atlanta the highest 15th overall at run defense. Ta'Quon Graham grades the highest at run defense per PFF at 13th out of 131. The rest of Atlanta's front seven is either average or below average at run defense. ESPN ranks the Falcons 21st at run stop win rate but Ta'Quon Graham ranks seventh at a defensive tackle at RSWR. Football Outsiders ranks Atlanta's run defense the lowest at 26th.
- Giants run blocking 12th PFF, 3rd FO, 24th ESPN
- Lions run defense 25th PFF, 32nd FO, 26th ESPN
By Ben Martinez & Chris Dell
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