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TOP RUN BLOCKING DISADVANTAGE (WORST RUSHING MATCHUPS)
Dolphins -17 vs 49ers
Seahawks -16 vs Rams
49ers -12.3 vs Dolphins
Chargers -10.7 vs Raiders
Miami Dolphins -17 at San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers -12.3 vs Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins enter week 13 possibly down both their starting tackles Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson. Miami's current run blocking rank is all over the place according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Pro Football Focus grades the Dolphins run blocking eighth best in the NFL as a unit with both center Conner Williams grading fourth overall and guard Robert Hunt 10th. Football Outsiders has the Dolphins ranked dead last at 32nd, while ESPN has the Dolphins ranked 20th according to their run block win rate stat. Conner Williams is the seventh best center according to ESPN RBWR.
The 49ers run defense is ranked second best in the NFL according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat sheet. Looks like San Francisco will have defensive linemen Arik Armstead back this week to help boost this already top tier run defense. Football Outsiders ranks San Francisco #1 at stopping the run. ESPN has the 49ers fourth overall at run stop win rate along with Pro Football Focus grading them fourth overall as well. PFF's #1 run stopping edge rusher is Nick Bosa and both linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw grade 11th and 14th at run defense with fellow LB Azeer Al-Shaair grading higher than both Warner and Greenlaw at run defense but he hasn't had enough snaps to receive at grade yet.
San Francisco’s run blocking is also at a huge disadvantage this week against a solid run stopping front seven for Miami. On the positive side Pro Football Focus grades the 49ers offensive lines run blocking the highest out of our three sites with a 12th overall grade which includes tackle Trent Williams who is graded the #1 run blocker at his position. Football Outsiders ranks San Francisco the lowest at 25th but ESPN has the 49ers rank 17th according to their run block win rate metric. 49ers tackle Mike McGlinchey individually ranks seventh at RBWR for his position.
The Dolphins run defense has been improving week after week, especially after acquiring Bradley Chubb who PFF grades as the 15th best run stopping edge rusher. PFF grades the Dolphins front seven fifth overall as a run stopping unit. Football Outsider ranks Miami fourth overall at run defense and ESPN has the Dolphins eighth at their run stop win rate metric. Jaelan Phillips ranks fifth at RSWR as an edge rusher and Christian Wilkins is second at RSWR as a defensive tackle.
Seattle Seahawks -16 vs Los Angeles Rams
Hard to believe this advantage will hold for the Rams after losing A'Shawn Robinson during week 11 to a torn meniscus and now Aaron Donald looks to also miss the rest of the season with an ankle injury. Los Angeles has the highest advantage this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. PFF ranks the Rams #1 overall at run defense despite being without Donald and Robinson anchoring the middle of the defensive line. Los Angeles will now rely on PFF #1 run stopping linebacker Bobby Wagner who faces his former team this week. Linebacker Ernest Jones ranks seventh at run defense for Los Angeles. Football Outsiders ranks the Rams the lowest at third overall at run defense and ESPN has the Rams ranked second at run stop win rate.
The Seahawks offensive line ranks in the middle of the league at run blocking. Pro Football Focus grades Seattle 14th overall with not a single offensive linemen in the top 15 at their position. Football Outsiders has the Seahawks ranked 15th and ESPN has Seattle the lowest at 25th overall at run block win rate. Seattle guard Damien Lewis is individually ranked seventh overall at RBWR for his position.
Los Angeles Chargers -10.7 vs Las Vegas Raiders
Chargers run blocking 32nd PFF, 20th FO, 31st ESPN
Raiders run defense 19th PFF, 16th FO, 16th ESPN
TOP RUN BLOCKING ADVANTAGES (BEST RUSHING MATCHUPS)
Bears +23 vs Packers
Browns +18.7 at Texans
Commanders +12 at Giants
Chicago Bears +23 vs Green Bay Packers
The Bears enter week 13 with the biggest rushing advantage this week plus they are the #1 run blocking offensive line according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Pro Football Focus grades Chicago third overall at run blocking and guard Teven Jenkins individually grades third overall at his position. Football Outsiders ranks Chicago fourth overall at run blocking and ESPN is lowest on the Bears run blocking, ranking them seventh using their run block win rate metric. Chicago guard Cody Whitehair is third at run block win rate according to ESPN.
Green Bay run defense ranks the lowest in our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet this week. After being unable to stop the Eagles on the ground last week, it's no surprise that Pro Football Focus grades the Packers 25th at run defense with not a single player on the front seven grading over 30 at an individual position. Football Outsiders has the Packers 28th overall at run defense and ESPN ranks Green Bay's run stop win rate 30th this week
Cleveland Browns +18.7 at Houston Texans
Clevelandranks fourth overall at run blocking this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Graded second as an overall unit by Pro Football Focus, the Browns look to run the ball behind guard Joel Bitonoi who grades second overall at run blocking. Fellow guard Wyatt Teller grades eighth at run blocking. Both Football Outsiders and ESPN rank the Browns eighth overall at run blocking and run block win rate according to their rankings.
Houston is one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Both Pro Football Focus(30th) and Football Outsiders(29th) ranks Houston fourth or worse at stopping the run. Other than defensive linemen Ogbonnia Okoronkwo who PFF grades the eighth best run stopping edge rusher not another Texan in the front seven grade higher than 40. ESPN's ranking of 15 at run stop win rate is what kept Houston from having one of the worst rankings this season. ESPN also had two Texans in their top 10 of run stop win rate edge rushers. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo isn't one of them. Jerry Hughes ranks sixth overall and Rasheem Green ranks ninth. Both these players grade in the 50s according to PFF at run defense.
Washington Commanders +12 at New York Giants
Commanders run blocking 16th PFF, 3rd FO, 19th ESPN
Giants run defense 26th PFF, 21st FO, 27th ESPN
By Ben Martinez & Chris Dell
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