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NFL Betting Cheat Sheet: Biggest OL/DL Run Blocking Mismatches (Week 14)

Ben Martinez breaks down our weekly betting and player props cheat sheet to identify the top OL/DL advantages and disadvantages, for run blocking across the NFL:

· NFL,Ben Martinez,Cheat Sheet,Chris Dell

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TOP RUN BLOCKING DISADVANTAGE

(WORST RUSHING MATCHUPS)

Jaguars -24.3 at Titans

Buccaneers -20 at 49ers

Chargers -19.7 vs Dolphins

Bills -14 vsJets

Jets -10.3 at Bills

Jacksonville Jaguars-24.3 at Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville enters week 14 as the worst run blocking offensive line averaging a ranking of 28.3 this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. ESPN ranks Jacksonville run blocking the highest at 26th, followed by Football Outsiders at 29, and Pro Football Focus grade is 30th. Every Jaguars starting offensive lineman grade below average at run blocking according to PPF with center Luke Fortner and right tackle Jawaan Taylor grading second to last at run blocking for their position.

The Titans injury report looks like a child's list to Santa Claus this week. 13 players on the final report with four of them being players on the front seven. Nonetheless Tennessee has the second highest ranking according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. ESPN ranks the Titans #1 at run stop win rate with both defensive tackles Jeffery Simmons and Teair Tart ranking in the top 10. Simmons third and Tart seventh. Football Outsiders ranks Tennessee the lowest at eighth and Pro Football Focus grades the Titans third at run defense. Edge rusher Mario Edwards Jr is the seventh highest graded run stopper at his position with five other players grading higher than 35th at their position.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -20 at San Francisco 49ers

The #1 run stop defense this week is the 49ers. San Francisco run defense is graded fourth overall by ESPN's run stop win rate rank and Pro Football Focus. Football Outsiders ranks the 49ers as the #1 run defense this week. Edge rusher Nick Bosa is the highest graded run defender at his position per PFF, while Linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw grade seventh and 13th at run defense.

The Buccaneers offensive line ranks above average at pass blocking but run blocking is another story. Pro Football Focus is pretty generous with a grade ranking of 19th, while Football Outsiders ranks them 21st, and ESPNs run block win rate ranking is 29th. Tackle Tristan Wirfs will most likely miss another game this week with an ankle injury. Wirfs graded 20th overall at his position.

Los Angeles Chargers -19.7 vs Miami Dolphins

Chargers run blocking 32nd PFF, 19th FO, 30th ESPN

Dolphins run defense 5th PFF, 4th FO, 13th ESPN

Buffalo Bills -14 vs New York Jets

Bills run blocking 28th PFF, 9th FO, 28th ESPN

Jets run defense 6th PFF, 14th FO, 3rd ESPN

New York Jets -10.3 vs Buffalo Bills

Jets run blocking 26th PFF, 27th FO, 22 ESPN

Bills run defense 24th PFF, 9th FO, 11th ESPN

TOP RUN BLOCKING ADVANTAGES

(BEST RUSHING MATCHUPS)

Eagles +20.7 at Giants

Cowboys +18.7 vs Texans

Vikings +12 at Lions

Browns +10.3 at Bengals

Ravens +10.3 at Steelers

Philadelphia Eagles +20.7 vs New York Giants

The strength of the Eagles all season has been on the line, both side defense and offense. Philadelphia has the best run blocking offensive line according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. The Eagles rank second at ESPN's run block win rate with three of the five starting offensive linemen in the top three at their own position. Guard Landon Dickinson is the #1 overall at his position for RBWR, Jason Kelce is second for centers, and Jordan Mailata is third for tackles. Pro Football Focus grades the Eagles third at run blocking with four of the five linemen grading in the top 20 individually at their position. Football Outsiders ranks Philadelphia the lowest at eight overall.

The Giants are gonna have a long day trying to stop this offensive from moving the ball. New York ranks below average at run defense. Football Outsiders has the Giants 21st at run defense which is the highest. Both ESPN and Pro Football Focus ranks New Yorks run defense 27th. With Leonard Williams doubtful for this week, New York must rely on Dexter Lawrence to stop the Eagles run game. Lawrence is PFF #1 run stopping defensive tackle, but unfortunately the rest of the Giants front seven are all below average run stoppers.

Dallas Cowboys +18.7 vs Houston Texans

Dallas and Philadelphia once again are one and two when it comes to line advantage, but this time it's on the offensive line. Dallas has the second best run blocking advantage this week with a 5.7 ranking average according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders ranks the Cowboy's the highest at second overall, while ESPN's run block win rate ranking has Dallas fifth, but Pro Football Focus rank the Cowboys The lowest at 10. Dallas has two offensive linemen in the top 10 of RBWR at their position. Tackle Tyler Smith and center Tyler Bladasz rank seventh and ninth using this ESPN metric. PFF grades Terence Steele the sixth best run blocker at his position but every other offensive linemen fail to be in the top 20 as a run blocker.

The one win Texans have a below average run stopping defense with an average rank of 24.3. ESPNs run stop win rate metric does rank the Texans as an average run stopping defense at 15, but both Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders ranks Houston 29th. As kind as ESPN is with their ranking they do have three edge rushers in their top ten RSWR top 10 at the position. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo is third, Jerry Hughes is seventh, and Rasheem Green is eighth. PFF grades Ogbonnia Okoronkwo as the eighth best run stopper with no other Texan in the top 20 at their position.

Minnesota Vikings +12 at Detroit Lions

Vikings run blocking 2nd PFF, 24th FO, 16th ESPN

Lions run defense 23rd PFF, 32nd FO, 25th ESPN

Cleveland Browns +10.3 at Cincinnati Bengals

Browns run blocking 6th PFF, 10th FO, 12th ESPN

Bengals run defense 22nd PFF, 7th FO, 30th ESPN

Baltimore Ravens +10.3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Ravens run blocking 7th PFF, 12th FO, 1st ESPN

Steelers run defense 10th PFF, 15th FO, 26th ESPN

By Ben Martinez & Chris Dell

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