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TOP RUN BLOCKING DISADVANTAGE
(WORST RUSHING MATCHUPS)
Chargers -23 vs Rams
Patriots -21.3 vs Dolphins
Buccaneers -15.3 vs Panthers
Raiders -15.3 vs 49ers
Los Angeles Chargers -23 vs Los Angeles Rams
The Chargers enter week 17 with the biggest run blocking disadvantage according to our NFL Betting/Prop Cheat Sheet. The Boltz have the fourth worst run blocking average. Football Outsiders ranks the Charger's offensive line the highest at 14, while ESPN and Pro Football Focus ranks the Chargers run blocking 29th and 32nd. PPF has only one Chargers offensive linemen above average at run blocking, guard Zion Johnson. The rest of the Los Angeles line grades below average at run blocking. There are no Chargers on ESPN's run block win rate rankings.
The Rams have the highest run defensive average this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders ranks the Rams third at run defense, ESPN has Los Angeles second on their run stop win rate ranking, and Pro Football Focus grades the Rams #1 at stopping the run. Rams LB Bobby Wagner is PFF #1 graded run stopping linebacker. Fellow linebacker Ernest Jones grades 16th out of 82 at stopping the run. Three of the other five defenders on Los Angeles front seven grade above average at stopping the run. The Rams do not have a player on either of ESPN's run stop win rate rankings.
New England Patriots -21.3 vs Miami Dolphins
New England is this week's third worst run blocking offensive line according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. The Patriots are ESPN's lowest ranked run block win rate team, Pro Football Focus grades New England's offensive line the highest 24th overall at run blocking, followed by Football Outsiders with a rank of 25th. PFF grades guard Michael Onwenu the highest of this unit, ninth out of 82 for run blocking, followed by center David Andrews who grades eighth out of 36. The other three starters on the Patriots line grade below average at run blocking. New England doesn't have any offensive linemen ranked on ESPN's run block win rate rankings.
The Dolphins have the fifth highest run defensive average this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders ranks Miami run defense the highest at fourth overall, followed by Pro Football Focus at fifth, and ESPN ranks the Dolphins eighth at run stop win rate. Even with Miami ranking eighth, ESPN has defensive tackle Christian Wilkins ranked #1 at RSWR at his position, while edge rusher Bradley Chubb ranks 10th at his position. PFF grades Christian Wilkins the fourth best run stopping defensive tackle out of 140. The other six players on the Dolphins front seven all rank above average at stopping the run.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -15.3 vs Carolina Panthers
Buccaneers run blocking 20th PFF, 24th FO, 31st ESPN
Panthers run defense 13th PFF, 10th FO, 6th ESPN
Las Vegas Raiders -15.3 vs San Francisco 49ers
Raiders run blocking 19th PFF, 28th FO, 7th ESPN
49ers run defense 3rd PFF, 1st FO, 4th ESPN
TOP RUN BLOCKING ADVANTAGES
(BEST RUSHING MATCHUPS)
Bears +22 at Lions
Eagles +13 vs Saints
Commanders +10.3 vs Browns
Ravens +10 vs Steelers
Chicago Bears +22 at Detroit Lions
Chicago is the #1 ranked run blocking offensive line this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders ranks the Bear fourth overall and both Pro Football Focus and ESPN's run block win rate metric has Chicago fifth overall. Guard Teven Jenkins grades as the third best run blocking offensive linemen according to PFF and teammate Braxton Jones grades eighth with the other three offensive linemen grading above average at run blocking. ESPN has guard Cody Whitehair ranked fourth at RBWR.
Our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet ranks the Lions second to last at run defense. Both Pro Football Focus and ESPN rank Detroit 24th at run defense, while Football Outsiders has the Lions dead last 32nd overall. Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson is the highest graded Lions run stopper at 39th out of 117. Two other Lions defenders grade about average and the other four on Detroit's front seven grade below average. There isn't any Lion defenders on ESPN's run stop win rate rankings
Philadelphia Eagles +13 vs New Orleans Saints
The loss of tackle Lane Johnson til the playoffs drops the Eagles out of first place at run blocking on our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. ESPN is the highest on the Eagles ranking them second at run block win rate, Pro Football Focus grades Philadelphia sixth at run blocking, and Football Outsiders ranks the Eagles eighth. Jason Kelce grades second out of 36 centers at run blocking per PFF, Isaac Seumalo grades 13th out of 81 guards and Jordan Mailata is the 15th best run blocking tackle out of 77. The other two offensive linemen grade slightly above average at run blocking per PFF. Philadelphia has three Eagles ranked at each position of ESPN's run block win rate ranking. Guard Landon Dickinson is the #1 guard at RBWR, center Jason Kelce is second at his position, and tackles Jordan Mailata is third at his position.
The Saints rank as a slightly below average run stopping defensive line this week. ESPN ranks New Orleans the lowest at 26th, while both Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders have the Saints front seven ranked higher at 16th and 13th. Both of the Saint's edge rushers grade pretty high on PFF at run defense. Carl Granderson grades as the fourth best run stopping edge rusher out of 117 and Cameron Jordan grades 12th at the same position. Linebacker Kaden Elliss grades as the eighth best run stopping defender out of 82. Three other Saints grade slightly above average at run defense. ESPN run stop win rate ranking doesn't have any Saints defenders in their top 10 rankings at either position.
Washington Commanders +10.3 vs Cleveland Browns
Commanders run blocking 22nd PFF, 6th FO, 16th ESPN
Browns run defense 31st PFF, 30th FO, 14th ESPN
Baltimore Ravens +10 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Ravens run blocking 2nd PFF, 16th FO, 1st ESPN
Steelers run defense 7th PFF, 15th FO, 27th ESPN
By Ben Martinez & Chris Dell
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