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TOP RUN BLOCKING DISADVANTAGE
(WORST RUSHING MATCHUPS)
Jets -21 at Dolphins
Jaguars -19.8 vs Titans
Texans -19 at Colts
Seahawks -16.7 vs Rams
Patriots -14 at Bills
Dolphins -12.3 vs Jets
Cardinals -11.3 at 49ers
Chargers -11.3 at Broncos
New York Jets -21 at Miami Dolphins
The Jets could spoil the Dolphins playoff hopes with a win this week, but according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet they won't be able to do it running the ball. New York has the third worst run blocking average this week. Football Outsiders ranks the Jets 25th at run blocking, Pro Football Focus grades New York 27th, and ESPN run block win rate ranks the Jets 30th at run blocking. Guard Nate Herbig is the only Jet to make ESPN's run block win rate top 10 at either of the three positions but could miss this week after missing last week's game against the Seahawks. Center Connor McGovern is the only Jets offensive linemen not graded below average at run blocking per PFF (10th out of 36)
The Dolphins are tied for third at run defensive average according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders ranks the Dolphins run stopping unit the highest, fourth followed by Pro Football Focus at sixth, and ESPN's run stop win rate ranking has Miami ninth. Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins is ranked #1 by ESPN's RSWR at his position. Miami's entire front seven all grade above average at run defense according to PFF, lead by defensive tackle Christian Wilkins who grades the highest second out of 138.
Jacksonville Jaguars -19.8 vs Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville enters week 18 with the worst run block average according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Pro Football Focus grades the Jaguars 30th at run blocking, Football Outsiders ranks them 29th, and ESPN's run block win rate rankings has Jacksonville ranked 28th. Every Jaguar's offensive linemen grades below average at run blocking according to PFF. Guard Jawaan Taylorgrades dead last at run blocking (76th out of 76) and center Luke Fortner is second to last at run blocking at his position (35th out of 36). There aren't any Jaguars on ESPN's RBWR top 10 list at any position.
The Titans look to be the healthiest they have been in weeks entering week 18. Tennessee has the seventh best run defensive ranking per our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders ranks the Titans the lowest at eighth, Pro Football Focus grades them third at run defense, and ESPN's run stop win rate ranking has the Titans #1 overall. ESPN has two Titans in the top 10 of their defensive tackle run stop win rate list. Jeffery Simmons and Teair Tart rank sixth and 10th. Six of the Titans starting front seven all grade above average at run defense per PFF, led by defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and edge rusher Denico Autry who grade 16th and 19th at their position.
Houston Texans -19 at Indianapolis Colts
Texans run blocking 29th PFF, 20th FO, 27th ESPN
Colts run defense 12th PFF, 2nd FO, 5th ESPN
Seattle Seahawks -16.7 vs Los Angeles Rams
Seahawks run blocking 22nd PFF, 14th FO, 21th ESPN
49ers run defense 1st PFF, 3rd FO, 3rd ESPN
New England Patriots -14 at Buffalo Bills
Patriots run blocking 24th PFF, 28th FO, 32nd ESPN
Bills run defense 26th PFF, 9th FO, 7th ESPN
Miami Dolphins -12.3 vs New York Jets
Dolphins run blocking 8th PFF, 30th FO, 20th ESPN
Jets run defense 5th PFF, 14th FO, 2nd ESPN
Arizona Cardinals -11.3 at San Francisco 49ers
Cardinals run blocking 31st PFF, 5th FO, 7th ESPN
49ers run defense 4th PFF, 1st FO, 4th ESPN
Los Angeles Chargers -11.3 at Denver Broncos
Chargers run blocking 32nd PFF, 12th FO, 29th ESPN
Broncos run defense 9th PFF, 20th FO, 10th ESPN
TOP RUN BLOCKING ADVANTAGES
(BEST RUSHING MATCHUPS)
Eagles +20.7 vs Giants
Lions +14.3 at Packers
Packers +12.7 vs Lions
Bears +12 vs Vikings
Broncos +11.7 vs Chargers
Steelers +11.3 vs Browns
Philadelphia Eagles +20.7 vs New York Giants
Philadelphia has the second best run block average according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders rank the Eagles the lowest at eighth, Pro Football Focus grades Philadelphia's run blocking fourth overall, and ESPN's run block win rate ranking has the Eagles second overall. Even without guard Lane Johnson this week every Eagle offensive linemen grade above average at run blocking, led by center Jason Kelce who grades second out of 36. ESPN's RBWR rankings once again has an Eagle at every offensive lineman position in the top 10 of their rankings. Tackle Jordan Mailata and center Jason Kelce rank second at their position and Landon Dickinson is the #1 RBWR guard.
The Giants have the third worst run defense average this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders ranks New York the highest at run defense 21st, ESPN's run stop win rate ranking has the Giants at 27th, and Pro Football Focus grades New York's front seven run stoppers 28th. With the Giants set at the sixth seed I'm sure much of the starters won't play. Defensive tackle Leonard Williams hasn't practiced all week and is likely to sit with a neck injury. Williams ranks eighth on ESPN's run stop win rate rankings for DTs. PFF grades defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence #1 overall at run defense, but how much will he play? Edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux is the only other Giant's defensive player that grades above average at run defense besides Williams and Lawrence.
Detroit Lions +14.3 at Green Bay Packers
Detroit's run block rankings are all over the place this week. Pro Football Focus grades the Lions seventh at run blocking, ESPN ranks Detroit 12th at run block win rate, and Football Outsiders ranks the Lions the lowest at run blocking 22nd overall. All five of the Lions offensive linemen all grade above average per PFF at run blocking led by center Frank Ragnow and tackle Penei Sewell who grade second and fourth at their positions. ESPN ranks center Frank Ragnow eighth at his position for run block win rate.
Green Bay enters week 18 with the worst run defense average according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Pro Football Focus grades the Packers the highest at 25th, Football Outsiders is next with a 28th rank, and ESPN's run stop win rate rankings has the Pack at 31st overall. It's to no surprise that there isn't a single Packer on either of ESPN's run stop win rate rankings. Green Bay doesn't have a single player in their front seven that grades above average at run defense.
Green Bay Packers +12.7 vs Detroit Lions
Packers run blocking 19th PFF, 15th FO, 9th ESPN
Lions run defense 24th PFF, 32nd FO, 25th ESPN
Chicago Bears +12 vs Minnesota Vikings
Bears run blocking 4th PFF, 2nd FO, 5th ESPN
Vikings run defense 2nd PFF, 27th FO, 18th ESPN
Denver Broncos +11.7 vs Los Angeles Chargers
Broncos run blocking 15th PFF, 18th FO, 4th ESPN
Chargers run defense 31st PFF, 18th FO, 23rd ESPN
Pittsburgh Steelers +11.3 vs Cleveland Browns
Steelers run blocking 21st PFF, 1st FO, 16th ESPN
Browns run defense 29th PFF, 30th FO, 13th ESPN
By Ben Martinez & Chris Dell
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