TOP RUN BLOCKING ADVANTAGES (BEST RUSHING MATCHUPS):
- Eagles +15.3 > Cowboys
- Cardinals +13.3 > Seahawks
- Browns +13.3 > Patriots
- Patriots +12.3 > Browns
- Ravens +10.7 > Giants
- Saints +10.0 > Bengals
Philadelphia Eagles +15.3 vs Dallas Cowboys
Since the start of the season, Philadelphia has been touted by NFL experts as the best offensive line in the league and they haven't disappointed. Behind ironman center Jason Kelce who will start his 127th straight game this week against the Cowboys, the 5-0 Eagles will win at the line and carry the highest run-blocking advantage this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Philadelphia has two games this season with over 200 yards rushing as a team, while the Cowboys have faced four of the five worst rushing teams on average this season ranking 25th or lower with Tampa Bay and Los Angeles 31st and 32nd, respectively. The Cowboys' run defense ranks 25th in PFF run defense, DVOA run defense and ESPN's run stop win rate, while the Eagles rank seventh in ESPN's run block win rate and top 11 in run blocking via both PFF and Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. The Cowboys have a good pass rush and secondary, but their weak spot is most certainly their run-stopping ability, and I expect Philly to take full advantage. Given the superior run-blocking advantage here, I like Miles Sanders OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards -110 @ Bet365. Sanders' big-play ability, in addition to his o-line, give us a big ceiling here.
Arizona Cardinals +13.3 vs Seattle Seahawks
Arizona is tied for the second-biggest run advantage this week, facing off against a Seattle defensive line which has given up over 100 yards rushing to four different players over the last three games. Seattle's best run-stopper, Shelby Harris, hasn't practiced all week with a hip injury and looks like he probably won't play this week, or at the very least he'll won't 100% healthy if out on the field. Pro Football Focus' defensive run grade ranks Seahawks starting defensive Quinton Jefferson 116 out of 129, and Darrell Taylor 103 of 105, at their position as run stoppers. Eno Benjamin could be this weekend's highest-owned tournament play on the board, but he's an near lock in cash games due to his price tag/matchup/role here.
Cleveland Browns +13.3 vs New England Patriots
The gold standard for running the ball this season has been the Cleveland Browns. Star running back Nick Chubb leads the NFL in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, and he's led up front by Wyatt Teller (second overall per Pro Football Focus at run blocking at the guard position), followed by his teammates Joel Bitonoi (sixth overall) and center Ethan Pocic (fourth overall). It's no wondeR Chubb has over 100 yards rushing in four of his five games this season. New England's front seven has allowed only Aaron Jones to rush over 100 yards this season, but most of their early-season opponents were inept running back attacks in facing Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Week 1's Miami Dolphins. New England could certainly scheme up a gameplan to stop Chubb, but it might not be enough to counteract the Browns' elite OL here.
New England Patriots +12.3 vs Cleveland Browns
The Patriots last four games have seen both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson combine for over 100 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns, and New England has one of the healthier offensive line coming into this matchup with four of its five starters on the OL grading 16th or better in run blocking per Pro Football Focus. Cleveland defensive ends Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney both enter this contest on the injury report, and the rest of the Cleveland front seven ranks below average in run stop defense. I like the value on Rhamondre Stevenson's anytime touchdown prop (+105 @ Draftkings) this weekend because of this. No Damien Harris this week for the Pats, and Stevenson had 27 touches both in the air and on the ground while Bailey Zappe threw the ball 21 times. The Patriots are going use Stevenson to control this game, I expected a ceiling of 30 touches (carries/targets) for Stevenson this Sunday afternoon.
TOP RUN BLOCKING DISADVANTAGES (WORST RUSHING MATCHUPS):
- Jaguars -19.7 vs. Colts
- Chargers -16.3 vs. Broncos
- Colts -14.0 vs. Jaguars
- Bengals -12.7 vs. Saints
- Panthers - 12.3 vs. Rams
- Falcons -9.0 vs. 49ers
Indianapolis Colts -14.0 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
It's been less than a month since the last time these two teams met, and if you recall it was Jonathan Taylor who could only muster 54 yards rushing. Although the last two games haven't gone Jacksonville's way - giving up 134 yards rushing to Miles Sanders in Week 4 and 99 yards rushing to Damien Pierce last week. Jacksonville front seven is actually getting healthy. Jacksonville should have run-stopping defensive lineman Folorunso Fatukasi back after missing last week. Both Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines returned to practice Thursday in a limited fashion. Given the fact that both of these teams show as top run block disadvantages this week, my play for this game is the Total Points UNDER 42 (-107 @PointBet)
Cincinnati Bengals -12.7 vs. New Orleans Saints
Who Dat or Who Dey? Bengals left tackle Jonah Williams has missed two days of practice with a knee injury that could cause him to miss this week, and despite New Orleans giving up multiple 100 yards rushing games this season, New Orleans' rush defense still ranks high in our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. The Saints have four players in their front seven that grade 25th or higher per Pro Football Focus, while Joe Mixon has been average this season at best (20th in rushing yards this season). Mixon has not lived up to his fantasy ADP though, and he has failed to go over his rushing yard props three times.
Atlanta Falcons -9.0 vs. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco's run-stopping defenses is seemingly matchup proof these days. Whether the 49ers are in a positive or negative game script, only one team has been able to rush for more than 100 yards on them (Denver had 101 in Week 3). Atlanta, on the other hand, has had success running the ball this year with over 100 yards rushing as a team in four of their five games this season. Running a league-high 55% of the time, the Falcons have improved their line play this year by not adding new personnel, but by improving their scheme. The 49ers linebackers are some of the best around led by Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, as they all grade 15 or higher in run defense per Pro Football Focus.
Our NFL Premium Package is Now Available for the 2022 season! Get full access to our best bets on sides, totals, and player props, all in one place, through the end of the Super Bowl.
Get $15 OFF with code NFL15 - Offer expires on Saturday, October 15th