Looking at the data, the biggest takeaway is that the teams/coaches who end up overachieving at end of the year are the teams who are coming into the season with low expectations. Since 1995, the average season win total for these teams and coaches are 7.34 wins. Seventeen of 25 winners had a season win total between six and nine wins. We have had just five winners below that number. Those teams were the 2012 Colts (5.5), the 2008 Atlanta Falcons (4.5), the 2004 Chargers (4.5), the 1999 Rams (5.5), and the 1996 Panthers (5.5). The other three teams that were projected to do well and had a season win total of 9.5+ wins consisted of the 2010 Patriots (9.5), the 2007 Patriots (11.5), and the 2002 Eagles (10).