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The lines listed below were available at the time of publishing this article (Wednesday, April 28th, 9:59 p.m. EST)
Caleb Farley is slipping in the draft due to medical concerns. With no combine this year, medical red flags are also likely to hurt prospects more than any other year and will hurt the Virginia Tech cornerback here.
When it was announced that the 49ers made their franchise-changing trade (moving up from 12th to 3rd), Justin Fields was the odds-on favorite to be picked third overall. These guys haven’t been playing football since the college season ended, and I simply don’t believe that Pro Days or private workouts are that impactful to swing the odds as much as they’ve swung leading up to this point. Fox Sports' Colin Cowherd made a great point recently that since John Lynch became the general manager of the 49ers nothing has leaked from their organization when it comes to moves that they've made. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan also had Justin Fields and Trey Lance go through a second private workout controlled by the 49ers and led by John Beck (whom he has a lot of trust in), and Mac Jones did not work with Beck. This all leads me to believe Fields still is the guy here, and the fact we're now getting +500 gives us good value.
For reference, this prop is listed at o/u 39.5 on PointsBet. Landon Dickerson is a talented round one player and he was dominant at Alabama, but his injuries are a big concern. He recently tore his ACL in the SEC Championship game vs Florida, and I also found this quote via CincyJungle - "in his five years at both Florida State and Alabama, Dickerson suffered four major injuries, two of which were season-ending injuries. Per NFL insider Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network, Dickerson’s medical history has many teams concerned about his long-term ability to stay healthy and have docked his medical grade accordingly." Some teams have said they wouldn’t take Dickerson until Day 3 of the draft as well. I have seen him mocked round one, but not enough to cover me here, and at picks 33 to 36 (Jags, Jets, Falcons, Fins), these teams have way bigger needs than at the center position. At the top of round two, and with plenty of talent left on the board for these teams, I believe that Dickerson in the middle of round.
I’m taking the plus money here - Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and Daniel Jeremiah all have the Philadelphia Eagles mocked for a defensive player, and even the die hard Philly fans are saying defense. People are also saying Surtain more than any other player in that area that might be available, but I believe the Eagles could use a good linebacker at this spot as well. Kiper has Philly taking the linebacker Micah Parsons from Penn St, so my best bet given what we know is that the Eagles will draft a defensive player first.
Steve Rieder: Under 6.5 offensive lineman taken in the first round -125 (DraftKings)
Unlike last year, this year's offensive line group is highlighted by its depth not the first round talent. According to our Consensus Experts Mock Draft Database, only five lineman are projected to go in the first round, which means we would need two others to sneak into the back end. The possible candidates are Eichenberg (O/U 44.5), Humphrey (O/U 43.5), Dickerson (O/U 36.5), Leatherwood (O/U 39.5), Cosmi (O/U 40.5), and Mayfield (O/U 52.5). It would be an upset, but certainly a possibility for any one of them to make it into the first round. But for two of them? I expect five offensive lineman to go in the opening round. With a full player buffer, this makes U6.5 offensive lineman a no brainer.
We're already past the point of getting this at under 11.5 earlier this week/last weekend, but that's still OK for me. Although Waddle's Consensus ADP ranks as just 10.4, three of our seven top ranked mock drafters have Waddle going either sixth or seventh to the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions, respectively, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that number rise as final mocks are released over Wednesday and Thursday before the draft officially begins. Carolina also has both Robby Anderson and DJ Moore going into the final year of their contracts, so that's now three teams who I can easily see going for the Alabama speedster, especially if the top five QB's are gobbled up quickly. Waddle is favored at -135 to go in the top 10 at FanDuel and at DraftKings this prop is already down to o/u 9.5 I personally bet him under 11.5 early (and some got him at even better numbers, I'm sure), but I still like him top 10 here. We all know how "speed kills" when it comes to GM's getting enamored with the fastest prospects come draft time, and we're also long gone from the days where Waddle was plus money to be drafted ahead of teammate DeVonta Smith (Waddle is now favored at -225 on FanDuel in this matchup prop). Nonetheless, I believe this all goes to show just how highly Waddle's stock has risen amongst the scouts and insiders alike.