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By Greg Frank
With the start of the 2022 NFL season just a days away, I dug into some statistics and trends surrounding the league as a whole. What I found was interesting and intriguing to say the least. For example...
The Steelers do not play a game west of the Mississippi River this season. Pittsburgh will travel a total of 6,512 miles this season. The next closest team in shortest travel distance in 2022 is Baltimore coming in at 8,244.
PRIMETIME GAMES
No NFL team plays more than five primetime games this season but there are 12 teams that do come in at five. Here are some of the noteworthy primetime nuggets we dug up for the season...
The Broncos play four of their first six games in the evening. In his career with the Seahawks, Russell Wilson went 29-11 straight-up and 23-14-3 ATS in primetime.
In addition to the Broncos, the Chiefs and Packers are two of the other teams that play five primetime games this season. Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson are first, third and fourth respectively in NFL history in passing rating in primetime games amongst quarterbacks with a minimum of 15 starts.
Here are the spots in which teams play a Monday night game after a Thursday night game, the longest such rest a team can have without a bye week:
Bills Week 1 into Week 2
Broncos Week 5 into Week 6
Bears Week 6 into Week 7
Ravens Week 8 into Week 9
Eagles Week 9 into Week 10
Patriots Week 13 into Week 14
Rams Week 14 into Week 15
NEW HEAD COACHES
While this trend has been largely strengthened by Week 1 struggles of new coaches in 2020 and 2021, in the last four seasons, head coaches with new teams are 3-19-1 SU and 8-15 ATS last four seasons in Week 1. Those numbers do not include Week 1 matchups in which both teams had new coaches. Here are the Week 1 current lines for teams featuring new head coaches with the team whose coach is new bolded:
New Orleans (-5.5) @ Atlanta
New England @ Miami (-2.5)*
San Francisco @ Chicago (+7)*
Indianapolis @ Houston (+8)
Jacksonville (+3.5) @ Washington
Las Vegas (+3.5) @ LA Chargers
Green Bay @ Minnesota (+2)*
NY Giants (+6)* @ Tennessee
Tampa Bay (-1) @ Dallas
Denver (-5.5)* @ Seattle
*Denotes a team whose head coach has no prior head coaching experience.
BYES
Teams coming off a bye last season went 16-15-1 ATS. Upon first glance you might think that oddsmakers have started accounting better for the extra rest the bye week provides teams. However, it’s worth noting that this trend was just 5-10-1 ATS for the team coming off the bye after Week 10. The last four weeks of byes last year saw teams return in the following game to go 11-5 ATS and put the season mark over .500. This would indicate that the later bye week, when teams are more worn down across the league, is more beneficial.
For further proof that a later bye can be more beneficial, eight of the last ten Super Bowl Champions had a bye in Week 9 or later. Here’s a more detailed look at those champions:
Team | Bye Week | Pre-bye straight up record | Post-bye straight up record | Final regular season record | Playoff bye? |
'21 Rams | 11 | 7-3 | 5-2 | 12-5 | No |
'20 Bucs | 13 | 7-5 | 4-0 | 11-5 | No |
'19 Chiefs | 12 | 7-4 | 5-0 | 12-4 | Yes |
'18 Patriots | 11 | 7-3 | 4-2 | 11-5 | Yes |
'17 Eagles | 10 | 8-1 | 5-2 | 13-3 | Yes |
'16 Patriots | 9 | 7-1 | 7-1 | 14-2 | Yes |
'15 Broncos | 7 | 6-0 | 6-4 | 12-4 | Yes |
'14 Patriots | 10 | 7-2 | 5-2 | 12-4 | Yes |
'13Seahawks | 12 | 10-1 | 3-2 | 13-3 | Yes |
'12 Ravens | 8 | 5-2 | 5-4 | 10-6 | No |
SUPER BOWL LOSERS
Thinking about fading the Bengals? It’s been a mixed bag of late for Super Bowl losers the following season. Out of the last 10 Super Bowl losers, three missed the playoffs, four won their division and three qualified for the postseason as a wild card. As for the win total results? Five of those Super Bowl losers went under their season win number, three came in over and two pushed. Moral of the story? Shop around and if you’d rather bet Cincinnati under its win total instead of missing the playoffs, avoid laying heavy juice.
HEAD TO HEAD COACHING MATCHUPS
You might not hear as much about Kyle Shanahan’s dominance of Sean McVay this season when the 49ers and Rams get together given McVay and the Rams are the reigning Super Bowl champs and beat the 49ers in last year’s NFC Championship. However, Shanahan is still 7-3 both SU and ATS against McVay in the regular season. We took a look at coaching matchups featuring a pair of coaches in the same division in which 2022 is at least the fifth season for both. Here’s what we found, looking just at regular season games between the two coaches:
- Kyle Shanahan (Hired in SF in 2017) vs Pete Carroll (Hired in SEA in 2010): In 10 games, Carroll has won the battle going 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS against Shanahan.
- Sean McVay (Hired in LA in 2017) vs Pete Carroll (Hired in SEA in 2010): In 10 games, McVay has gone 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS against Carroll.
- Bill Belichick (Hired in NE in 2000) vs Sean McDermott (Hired in BUF in 2017): In 10 games, Belichick has posted 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS records vs McDermott.
- Mike Tomlin (Hired in PIT in 2007) vs John Harbaugh (Hired in BAL in 2008): To the surprise of nobody, this one’s basically dead even. In 28 head-to-head matchups, Tomlin has a slight 15-13 SU edge and the ATS mark is 12-12-4.
- Frank Reich (Hired in IND in 2018) vs Mike Vrabel (Hired in TEN in 2018): Four straight up wins and four covers for each coach in eight total matchups.
Our Early Bird NFL Premium Package is Now Available for the 2022 season! The Betting Predators NFL Premium Package was created to give you with the highest-quality betting + player prop analysis. We're here to help you save time, win money, and become a long-term profitable sports bettor. Our team of analysts, led by Steve Rieder and Chris Dell, deliver real-time best bets and player prop analysis, every week, to make sure you crush your sportsbook. Get $20 OFF with code NFL20 for our best price all year.