By Greg Frank
While it was a talking point for most of last week, as we get closer to kickoff it appears as if the weather forecast for Super Bowl LV won’t have the impact some may have initially thought in Tampa, Florida.
On the eve of the big game between the Bucs and the Chiefs, there are still some thunderstorms and rain showers expected to move through the Tampa Bay area in the AM hours on Sunday. Overall weather conditions are expected to clear up as morning becomes afternoon, however, and by the time we get to game time in the evening the forecast is calling for sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 60s.
So what does this all mean? Well, the weather likely won’t have a huge factor on the outcome, which is always nice for a Super Bowl matchup. As we all know, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing in their home of Raymond James Stadium, and going back to Week 1 of the regular season - including the divisional round in New Orleans - 14 of Tampa Bay’s 19 games this season have either been played in a dome or with a kickoff temperature of at least 64 degrees fahrenheit. In those 14 games, the Buccaneers went 10-4 straight up and 9-5 against the spread. The over also went 8-6 in that same sample size.
No major surprises there, as a good team from Florida has played well in optimal weather conditions. But what about the Kansas City Chiefs? Patrick Mahomes & Company have played nine games that match the same forecast as mentioned above, including a 27-24 win at Tampa Bay in November in Week 12. In those nine games, the Chiefs went 8-1 straight-up, but only covered three of them. The over also went 5-4. Of course, straight up victories without covering the spread became frequent occurrences for Kansas City in the final two months of the regular season and into the playoffs, regardless of what the weather was.
When it comes to the weather in general, bettors normally think more about the forecast’s impact on the total more than the side. Case in point: the early forecast didn’t look great for this Super Bowl, which might have contributed to some of the early under money that came in at 57.5 and 57 at some shops.
Most books have been at 56 during game week on the total, and if there’s anything we can take from each team’s performance in similar conditions to what’s expected on Sunday, it’s that there hasn’t been an eye-opening over/under trend for either team. Often times, we as bettors believe that bad weather means less points and that good weather should make life easier for offenses to get the ball down the field. While we’re not trying to dispel that notion, it's interesting to note that both of these teams have also played their fair share of under games in conditions like we’re expected to see in Super Bowl LV on Sunday.
Lastly, as we take a look at Tom Brady’s previous nine Super Bowl appearances, we have to ask: did getting out of the New England cold and playing a game in a dome or warm weather in February always result in offensive barrages? Not exactly. The over went 4-5 in Brady’s nine Super Bowl appearances with the Patriots. With that all being considered, it’s safe to say that bettors can proceed with their wagers on Super Bowl Sunday - whether it's on the spread or the total - without many concerns about the forecast.