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NFL Week 13 Recap: Notes & Numbers

· NFL,Fantasy,Chris Dell

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

Welcome to the first weekly installment of our Betting Predators NFL Weekly Recap Column! For the full episode of our NFL Week 13 Recap Podcast, simply click here or listen to the audio player below for our full breakdown of each game on the main slate. I've included additional notes below for the handful of primetime games we had this week as well. This article will serve as more of a quick-hitting highlight post on my initial thoughts and takeaways from the week that was. I've also included a few brief notes below each games for Week 14 in regards to current lines and areas to potentially target for player props, DFS and season-long fantasy leagues. Questions? As always, hit me any time on Twitter @MaddJournalist:

Saints 21 @ Falcons 16

  • Brees could be back next week; Taysom first ever career passing TD in the NFL today

  • Get right spot for Kamara, 15-88-1 & 3 tar; MT 11-9-105, seeing near 40% taysom tar

  • Ridley/Julio top 10 WR together, both 10 tar, combined 20-11-202; Gage 8 tar/Hurst 4

Week 14 Lines: N.O. -7 @ PHI; ATL -2.5 @ LAC

Week 14 Props: Fade starting RBs vs Saints, take advantage of no J-Jenkins when possible

Lions 34 @ Bears 30

  • Marvin Jones was top 5 in air yards week 12, goes for 12-8-116-1; Hock 9-7-84

  • Montgomery 17-72-2 & 4-4-39; last two games 28-175 & 10-9-79; borderline RB1

  • Kmet ties A-Rob with 7 targets, posts 7-5-37-1, top waiver add/graham irrelevant

Week 14 Lines: GB -8.5 @ DET; HOU -1.5 @ CHI

Week 14 Props: Target starting RB1s vs Lions and WR1s vs Lions

Browns 41 @ Titans 35

  • Browns will be overvalued after W vs pass funnel def; Landry 10 tar, Higgins 9, DPJ 3

  • Chubb 14-80-1/1-1-26 vs Hunt 14-33/3-3-24; Chubb fresh now, Hunt bothered by injury

  • Davis/Brown both T20 in + matchups; Brown injured but still 7-4-87, Davis 12-11-183-1

Week 14 Lines: BAL -1 @ CLE; TEN -7 @ JAX

Week 14 Props: Target passing games/good usage guys vs. Browns and vs. Titans

Jaguars 24 @ Vikings 27 (OT)

  • Glennon Tar: Chark 7, Johnson 6, Eifert 6, Robinson 6, O’Shaughnessy 6 (TE/RB, good)

  • Cook 32-120 and 9-6-59; 41 touches, is that most for RB this year/in his career?!

  • Jefferson (12-9-121-1, 13.4 ypc) better with Thielen on field (11-8-75-1, 9.4 ypc)

Week 14 Lines: TEN -7 @ JAX; MIN @ TB -6.5

Week 14 Props: Target offenses/good usage guys in general vs Vikings & vs Jaguars

Raiders 31 @ Jets 28

  • Waller eruption, 17-13-200-2; Agholor just 4-38 on 11 tar, Renfrow 6 tar, Ruggs 4 tar

  • Ty Johnson 22-104-1 & 2-2-13; Adams 8-74, will Gore be back? Deep waiver adds

  • Crowder back to tar hog (7 of 23 attempts); Perriman 4 tar, Mims 3 tar, Darnold sucks :/

Week 14 Lines: IND -2.5 @ LV; NYJ @ SEA -13.5

Week 14 Props: Target pass games/slot/te vs NYJ & RB1s/overall offenses vs Raiders

Colts 26 @ Texans 20

  • Taylor back for 13-91 & 3-3-44-1, last two games now 35-181 & 7-7-68-1, Top 10

  • Coutee 9-8-141, Cooks concussion, Duke 6-6-24 might play slot; Coutee new WR1

  • Hilton 11-8-110-1, last two games now 16-12-191-2; Pittman and MAC five target each

  • Chad Hansen 25 y/o via Cal, hadn’t caught pass since ‘17 rookie year w/ NYJ; 7-5-101

Week 14 Lines: IND -2.5 @ LV (*Colts = Best Bet Candidate*); HOU -1.5 @ CHI

Week 14 Props: Target RB1s vs Texans & WR1s vs Texans with no more Roby

Bengals 7 @ Dolphins 19

  • Higgins led team again, 7-5-56, last week 5-5-44-1, still a flex but shaky floor/low ceiling

  • Gaskin back to workhorse 21-90 & 2-2-51; Gesicki TE1 ceiling, 11-9-88-1, Parker 8-4-35

  • Tua inefficient despite decent box score, just 19 pts, 1-for-10 on 3rd downs, 406 total yds

Week 14 Lines: DAL -3.5 @ CIN; *KC @ MIA (no line yet)

Week 14 Props: RB1s vs Bengals, TEs vs Bengals -> look into Williams Jackson shadow #’s*

Rams 38 @ Cardinals 28

  • Kyler bottom 10 qb without rushing; two late turnovers, 4.4 ypa, Hopkins 13-8-52-1

  • Akers workhorse, priority waiver add if still available, 21-72-1, 1-1-22; still a committee

  • Henderson got banged up but still had 3-49-1, 38 yd TD run, 3-2-25; Brown 1-30-1

  • Woods playing more slot lately, 11-10-85; Kupp 9-8-73; Everett/Higbee 13-10-68-1

Week 14 Lines: NE +6 @ LAR; ARI -2.5 @NYG

Week 14 Props: RB1s vs ARI (cluster DL injuries); slot WRs vs ARI (byron jones = weak)

Giants 17 @ Seahawks 12

  • Gallman 16-135 (0 tar)/NYG def will this team to win; SEA 4-13 on 3rd D, 0-2 on 4th D

  • NYG 5.3 ypp to 4.7 ypp; Wilson sacked 5x; DK 8-5-80; Lockett 9-6-63; Carson 6-3-45

  • Dissly/Hollister 9-7-48; Carson 16 touch, 110 yd, 6 tar, almost RB1; Hyde/Dallas 7 touch

Week 14 Lines: ARI -2.5 @ NYG; NYJ @ SEA -13.5

Week 14 Props: Don’t underestimate Giants D stopping run or pass/Bradberry still good

Eagles 16 @ Packers 30

  • Hurts 5-12, 109, 1-1 (9.1 ypa), 5-29 rush; Wentz 6-15, 79, 0-0 (5.3 ypa), 3-18 rush

  • Sanders 10 carries/just 1 target; Howard/Scott combine for 8 carries/targets, sucks

  • Goedert true WR1 for Eagles, just listed as “TE”, 7-5-66, now 29-21-231-2 in last 4

  • A Jones matchup proof at this time of year, 15-130-1 & 3-3-18; Williams 5 car, 2 tar

Week 14 Lines: N.O. -7 @ PHI; GB -8.5 @ DET

Week 14 Props: Still target RB1s vs GB & “maybe” WR1s vs PHI (*check Slay injury report)

Patriots 45 @ Chargers 0

  • Harris 16-80, Michel 10-35, Cam 14-48, total three guys = 40-163-1; LAC cant stop run

  • Meyers still 6 tar/White 4 tar on 19 cam att; Herbert 3.9 ypa, Allen 11 tar/Mike 9/Ekeler 9

  • Ballage 7 car/4 tar, was it just game script blowout or does he threaten Ekeler RB1 load?

Week 14 Lines: NE +6 @ LAR; ATL -2.5 @ LAC

Week 14 Props: RBs vs LAC all day every day; try to continue to avoid props on NE games

Broncos 16 @ Chiefs 22

  • Continued high target volume for Kelce/Hill; combined 23 tar/14 rec, 58% target share

  • Watkins 6 tar, no other Chief more than 3; Watkins/Kelce/Hill all playing slot snaps/routes

  • Gordon best game of year, 15-131 & 2-1-11; reminds us KC still vulnerable on ground

  • Fant healthiest/best game in a while, team high 7 tar, 7-4-57, long of 37; Hamler 5 tar

Week 14 Lines: KC -7.5 @ MIA; DEN @ CAR (*no line due to COVID cases for Panthers)

Week 14 Props: RBs & TEs vs KC swiss cheese run def; check DEN def injuries this week

Washington 23 @ Steelers 17

  • Thomas/McKissic 19 tar (41.3); Sims nearly doubles career high w/ 9 tar, WAIVER ADD

  • Sims Jr./McLaurin still 6 tar each, expect WAS to be more pass happy w/o Gibson

  • Steelers #2 pass heavy offense in league, 53 (!) attempts to 14 rushes (76.8%)

  • Diontae 12 tar, Ebron 11, JuJu 10, Claypool/Washington 4, Washington more snaps :(

Week 14 Lines: WAS @ SF -3.5; PIT @ BUF -2.5

Week 14 Props: tough to play overs vs WAS defense; still target pass games vs PIT/fade RBs

Bills 34 @ 49ers 24

  • Target share w/o Brown: Diggs 31.7%/WR1, Beasley 22.2%/WR3, Davis 13.5%/FLEX

  • Allen now 70% completion rate & 26:8 TD/INT; #3 mvp candidate w/ Aaron, Mahomes

  • Singletary dominates usage over Moss; 18-61 & 4-3-22 vs. 3-9 & 1-1-5; viable flex/RB3

  • Knox emerging as low-end TE1 option, 9-7-45-2 over last 3 games; 4 tar in 2 of 3 games

  • Mostert 9-42 & 1-1-1, Wilson 7-47 & 5-2-12; Wilson 12 touches vs. Mostert 9 touches

  • Aiyuk/Samuel dominate tar share, 18-11-168-1 (46.1%); Bourne 6 tar as SF #3 wr

Week 14 Lines: PIT @ BUF -2.5; WAS @ SF -3.5

Week 14 Props: BUF def healthier/no longer run funnel; 49ers down game, defense still #good

Cowboys 17 @ Ravens 34

  • Gallup now 5+ tar in 5 straight; 7+ in 4 of 5; 11-7-86-1; Lamb 9-6-46; Cooper 9-5-43-1

  • BAL four headed RB continues, Gus 7-101, Ingram 6-28, JK 11-71-1, Lamar 13-94-1

  • Brown near 50% target share, 8 tar on 17 att; should’ve put up more #’s with this volume

Week 14 Lines: DAL @ CIN (*line not available); BAL @ CLE (*line not available)

Week 14 Props: Bernard vs. DAL run def, Zeke vs. CIN run def; DAL passing game vs. CIN

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