NFL Week 5 lines are already out in some places, and you can get fantastic CLV (closing line value) by playing these lines a week early. Come Sunday night, these lines will move very fast and CLV is very difficult to come by in these cases. For the odds below, I am looking at both FanDuel and BetOnline. The primary goal with these articles is to get ahead of these line moves before they get slammed:
Eagles @ Steelers (-7.5 FanDuel, +100 -7 BetOnline)
You'd think that the 49ers had a JV team last week against the Giants, right? Well, the Eagles are now getting close to that label too. I have no idea who plays for the Eagles in Week 5 here. The Steelers strength is their defensive line, and they will eat the Eagles offensive line alive. This is massive mismatch, and the Eagles simply aren’t good enough to offset it. The Steelers got a bye this week with their game against the Titans being rescheduled, and that's coming after star wideout Diontae Johnson went into concussion protocol in Week 3. This will give him another week to come back and I expect him to be back full strength for this game. If you can tease the Steelers and Chiefs (see below) together for an okay price (-130 or less), I would go ahead and play it now before these numbers go up. I really want the -7 even money, but I (reluctantly) am okay with the -7.5. I would be stunned if the Steelers drop to -7 by kickoff. My guess is this line goes to -10, especially if we see more Eagles injuries on Sunday Night Football.
Dolphins @ 49ers (-8 FanDuel, -115 - 8.5 BetOnline)
The Miami Dolphins +8 is the way to go here, as I think Miami gives the Seattle Seahawks a run for their money in Week 4. I was super hesitant on the Dolphins to start the year, but this team has come together pretty well. The offensive line in particular has impressed me, as two weeks ago I would've said take the 49ers here in this spot. Now I have flipped, as the 49ers lost key guys on the defensive line that would've taken advantage of a very young Dolphins o-line. That advantage is now gone with 49ers losing so many guys. Lastly, the 49ers are in a sandwich spot with this game - Week 4 vs. Eagles, Week 5 vs. Dolphins and a Week 6 primetime game against the Rams. Since 2015, the 49ers the week before playing a division game are 10-19 SU (34.5%), 12-17 ATS (41.4%), and 18-11 O/U (62.1%). If you go to 2017 (the year Kyle Shanahan took over), the 49ers are 7-11 SU and 9-9 ATS using the same trend.
*Raiders @ Chiefs (-11.5 FanDuel/BetOnline)
This is a pretty easy one, IF the Chiefs get a bye week after the possible cancellation with the Patriots (the game could still happen in the next couple of days). Andy Reid as head coach in his lifetime with extra rest is 33-12 SU (73.3%), 27-18 ATS (60%), and 12-30-3 O/U (28.6%). Mahomes is simply put, "awesome," and the Raiders are the Raiders. Las Vegas is banged up along its offensive line, wide receiver core and secondary heading into Week 4 against the Bills, who present a tough matchup. I expect the Raiders to lose by some decent margin here, and Jon Gruden is 3-12 ATS when facing a team that finishes a season with a winning record. This game will go to -14 IMO.