By Steve Rieder
Every week several domestic and off-shore books post lookahead lines for the following week’s games. Essentially, next week’s lines are being offered before this week’s games even kick-off. Lookahead lines offer tremendous opportunities because of the uncertainty that goes along with it.
As the week progresses, the NFL betting marketplace becomes more efficient. Sharps and syndicates alike find the value in the sides and totals and correct the misprices. By the weekend, almost all of the value has dried up for the NFL Sunday slate becoming the most efficient marketplace in the world. The public will still bet their favorite teams, the heavy favorites, and their 10-team parlays without realizing how -EV their plays are. At this point, sharps and recreational betters alike would find more success turning their attention to next week’s look ahead lines.
Syndicates typically don’t spend as much time or energy with the lookahead lines, not because they don’t see the value, but because of the low limits. Much like the prop and derivative marketplace, lookahead lines are ripe for the sharp bettor to take advantage of. As a rule of thumb: the lower the limit, the better the value.
Lookahead lines typically don’t adjust as quickly as the current week’s lines. If a team gets steamed in the current week’s game, it is prudent to immediately look to see if there is value on the team the following week. Much like the Sunday night openers, betting lookahead lines are the most valuable at post. Some books may post on different days and at different times, but getting to know the schedule of your book can be extremely advantageous.
- Pick: DEN -2.5
- Closed: DEN -6
- Outcome: WON
- PICK: NYG -2.5
- CLOSED: NYG -3 (+100)
- OUTCOME: LOST
- PICK: NE +5.5
- CURRENT: NE +7
- OUTCOME: TBD
WEEK 5 LOOKAHEAD LINES
There were several potential plays this week that caught my eye. As more games are played and more data sets are calculated, we get a better feel for who these teams are, their strengths and weaknesses, and which teams they may have success or struggle against. So it's no real surprise that I found value in several plays. For the sake of not getting carried away, I narrowed down our actionable options to 3 best bets. I truly feel we will find closing line value by playing it early and have a great shot at cashing all three tickets.
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