NFL Week 6 Lookahead Lines & Best Bets Forecast w/ Steve Rieder

By Steve Rieder

@AvoidtheVig

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LOOKAHEAD LINES: COLUMN OVERVIEW 

Every week several domestic and off-shore books post lookahead lines for the following week’s games.  Essentially, next week’s lines are being offered before this week’s games even kick-off.  Lookahead lines offer tremendous opportunities because of the uncertainty that goes along with it.   

As the week progresses, the NFL betting marketplace becomes more efficient.  Sharps and syndicates alike find the value in the sides and totals and correct the misprices.  By the weekend, almost all of the value has dried up for the NFL Sunday slate becoming the most efficient marketplace in the world.  The public will still bet their favorite teams, the heavy favorites, and their 10-team parlays without realizing how -EV their plays are.  At this point, sharps and recreational betters alike would find more success turning their attention to next week’s look ahead lines.  

Syndicates typically don’t spend as much time or energy with the lookahead lines, not because they don’t see the value, but because of the low limits.  Much like the prop and derivative marketplace, lookahead lines are ripe for the sharp bettor to take advantage of.  As a rule of thumb: the lower the limit, the better the value.   

Lookahead lines typically don’t adjust as quickly as the current week’s lines.  If a team gets steamed in the current week’s game, it is prudent to immediately look to see if there is value on the team the following week.  Much like the Sunday night openers, betting lookahead lines are the most valuable at post.  Some books may post on different days and at different times, but getting to know the schedule of your book can be extremely advantageous.  

LOOKAHEAD BEST BET HISTORY FOR 2021: (2-1) 

WEEK 2:

• Pick: DEN -2.5
• Closed: DEN -6
• Outcome: WON 

WEEK 3:

• PICK: NYG -2.5
• CLOSED: NYG -3 (+100)
• OUTCOME: LOST 

WEEK 4:

• PICK: NE +5.5
• CURRENT: NE +7
• OUTCOME: WON

WEEK 5:

• PICK: MIN -7
• CURRENT: MIN -10
• OUTCOME: TBD
• PICK: BUF +3.5
• CURRENT: BUF +3
• OUTCOME: TBD
• PICK: BAL -6.5
• CURRENT: BAL -7
• OUTCOME: TBD 

We found 3 different lookahead games actionable and all 3 have moved in our direction.  I'm still just as excited about each play as I was when we placed it.  If you have missed out on any play, the only one I'd still take at the current number is BAL -7.  In fact, BAL -6.5 (-115) is still available at DraftKings.  I highly doubt that will still be available by kickoff.  This week, I'm less excited about our lookahead options for Week 6.  But let's dive in and see if we have anything worthwhile.  

WEEK 5 LOOKAHEAD LINES 

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS (+4.5) 

I originally had this game lined at GB -8, but I went back and reevaluated where I had each club.  It turns out that my two biggest disagreements with the marketplace were GB and CHI, which is where the value comes.   I have adjusted both team's power ratings since I posted them, which is why you may see a difference here.  Justin Fields was named the starter for CHI and Jaire Alexander, by far their best corner, is now injured and out indefinitely.  The reason I'm not jumping to the window is that we would be selling Justin Fields at his lowest point.   He was dreadful in his first action and not good in his first start.  This is also a division matchup which tends to be closer games.  If this opens up 7 or higher, I'll be disappointed, but for now it's just a lean. 

LEAN: GB -4.5

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (-1) 

This is our biggest discrepancy of the week, but the value is extremely low.  Going through zero has almost no value because of the extremely low probability of a tie.  Not to mention, Christian McCaffrey will probably be ready to play next week if he's not a go this week, which will certainly give a boost to the Panthers' Power Rating.  I do think MIN is better than their record would indicate and I think they will be a play on team moving forward.  Carolina has been playing extremely well and exceeded expectations this season.  However, their strength of schedule so far has been underwhelming and I'm curious if their production is inflated because of their opponents.  I'd rather kick the can down the road and see what the openers bring.   

PASS

DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1.5) 

I know the Cowboys have been very impressive this season, but are they good enough to lay points in Foxboro?  The Cowboys find themselves at #10 in my Power Ratings.  Their defense has been better than expected and their run game has matched their passing prowess.  They are a really well-rounded team at the moment.  But Bill Belichick is still the GOAT.  Being an underdog at home is not a spot he is used to being in, but he certainly has performed well in the role.  I imagine that NE will make DAL's offense one dimensional and we should see Mac Jones continue to evolve.  NE should make light work of the Houston Texans, so I'd imagine their perception will increase.  On the otherhand, the Giants have seen some money since the opener.  I wouldn't be shocked if this was another close NFC EAST contest, which may lower Dallas' perception.   

LEAN: NE +1.5

BUFFALO BILLS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (3.5) 

This one is very reminiscent of the Patriots Lookahead that we bet and won the other week.  In that situation, we bet the Pats +5.5 on the lookahead.  After the openers were posted, I realized our error.  What did we have to gain by taking 5.5 when the possibility of +6-+7 was infinitely more valuable.  We won't make this mistake again.  We have two points of value here, but is it that significant going through the 4-5 corridor?  You could argue that 4 is a key number, which may be a stretch, but it has some merit, but the possibility of laying just a field goal is worth the wait.  Our power ratings also take into consideration the 23 players that are on the Titans injury report.  If a majority were healthy and active, this number might just be right.  There is no rush to be this one.  We will sit back and learn from our past mistakes.    

LEAN: BUF -3.5