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Editor's Note: Steve Rieder has accumulated a 205-166-1 record, +22.06 units over the course of the 2021 & 2022 NFL seasons. Get access to his full record, pick by pick, on our NFL bets tracker spreadsheet
STEVE RIEDER'S NFL EARLY FREE PLAY OF THE WEEK
The NFL sides market is an extremely efficient market. You need to find an edge wherever you can when betting NFL sides. One way of doing this is to get ahead of the market by attacking the lines the moment they are released on Sunday night. Here is my NFL Week 7 free play:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins -6 (Good up to -6.5)
I targeted this game on the lookahead and my opinion hasn't changed despite Miami's loss and the Steelers win. Miami may have had the worst luck of quarterback injury in the history of the NFL seeing their starting quarterback get knocked out of the game for four consecutive weeks. However, they have Tua coming back and he should get the start hosting Pittsburgh. On the other hand, the Steelers not only covered, but won outright as a double digit dog hosting the Buccaneers. It was an impressive victory for sure, but I found it to be more telling about the Bucs than anything. Make no mistake, I upgraded the Steelers off the win, but even then, I make the game Miami -7.5. If Tua is in fact the starter, this number should go through 7. Regardless, Pittsburgh will certainly be feeling themselves and have to fly down to the humidity of Miami with their own question marks at quarterback. I fully expect this game to start the Dolphins revenge tour.
By Steve Rieder
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