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AT&T Byron Nelson: Round 3 Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

· Golf,Chris Dell

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. Two of the main statistics we start with here are Strokes Gained Approach & Strokes Gained Tee To Green. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" formula, which I will summarize below, we will be able to determine our best buys and fades for each round. All spreadsheet/data links will also be listed at the bottom of this article, as well as our primer from the fall.

In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each set of our two data points (strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other, we will pass, in almost every scenario. Lastly, I will include two separate buy/fade lists for "Strokes Gained: Ball Striking" and "Strokes Gained: Tee To Green."

The reason for including these is because both ball striking and tee to green are golf statistics that include off the tee and approach. Without rambling on and on, I'll explain how these stats are sorted out here:

Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine our Post-RD1 and round to round matchup bets.

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

ROUND 3 BUYS (Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green)

Bryson DeChambeau +8.2

Grayson Murray +7.2

Aaron Baddeley +6.7

Rickie Fowler +5.8

Patrick Rodgers +5.4

Scott Piercy +4.9

Jhonattan Vegas +4.6

Thomas Pieters +4.6

Wesley Bryan +4.0

Will Zalatoris +3.7

Fabian Gomez +3.7

Sam Burns +3.6

Sung Kang +3.6

Antoine Rozner +3.5

Ricky Barnes +3.4

Brooks Koepka +3.4

Jordan Spieth +3.3

Hideki Matsuyama +3.1

Sam Ryder +3.1

Brian Stuard +3.0

Kevin Tway +3.0

Padraig Harrington +3.0

ROUND 3 FADES (Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green)

John Lyras -10.3

Hunter Mahan -7.8

Bob Oppenheim -7.1

Dominic Bozzelli -7.1

Tyler Duncan -6.2

Michael Gligic -5.9

AustIn Cook -5.7

George McNeill -5.6

Shane Pierce -4.1

Tyler Stafaci -3.9

David Lingmerth -3.7

Charlie Beljan -3.5

Scott Stallings -3.4

Johnson Wagner -3.3

Pierceson Coody -3.3

Josh Teater -3.3

Jonas Blixt -3.2

Hudson Swafford -3.2

Matt Every -3.2

Will Gordon -3.1

Rhein Gibson -3.1

Nick Watney -3.1

Andrew Landry -3.0

Rafael Campos -3.0

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