By Chris Dell
*Author's Note* - We regret to inform you that there is unfortunately no ShotLink data available for the British Open this year and therefore we have no strokes gained data to analyze. We still have data for the ongoing Barbasol Championship, however, and will be posting those here throughout the weekend, in addition to our PGA Premium plays that currently available through our $19.99 package on the website.
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here.
Primer/Intro: In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.
Without rambling on and on too much, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here:
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
Please Note: I've added a few wrinkles to better help you sort through our buy and fade lists below AND search for the best available head to head matchup bets/odds possible. The golfers with asterisks by their name will denote that they cleared our buy/fade threshold in either 2, 3 or 4 of the following categories:
- Strokes Gained Putting of below -2 or above +2
- Strokes Gained Tee To Green of below -2 or above +2
- Strokes Gained Net Rating of below -3 or above +3
- *Added Threshold For This Weekend/Course Specific -> There is currently no additional threshold metric we are using for this tournament and will stick to Strokes Gained Putting/Tee To Green
BARBASOL CHAMPIONSHIP: ROUND 2 TOP BUYS
Strokes Gained Rating (SGR)
***Roger Sloan +7.97
***Mito Pereira +6.39
***Cameron Percy +6.36
***Bo Van Pelt +5.96
***Mark Anderson +5.14
***Robert Garrigus +4.93
***Scott Brown +4.91
***George McNeill +4.48
------------
Ryan Armour +5.19
Adam Schenk +4.21
Mark Hubbard +4.20
Ryan Blaum +4.13
John Pak +4.12
Michael Gellerman +3.93
J.J. Spaun +3.85
Vaughn Taylor +3.54
Sahith Theegala +3.43
David Pastore +3.35
Luke List +3.19
Ricky Barnes +3.13
Will Gordon +2.98
Bronson Burgoon +2.78
Ryan Brehm +2.77
Johnson Wagner +2.61
Ben Martin +2.56
David Lingmerth +2.53
BARBASOL CHAMPIONSHIP: ROUND 2 TOP FADES
Strokes Gained Rating (SGR)
***Martin Trainer -8.36
***Tom Lewis -6.73
***Ben Crane -4.60
***Hudson Swafford -3.66
***John Senden -3.59
***MJ Daffue -3.30
------------
Smylie Kaufman -19.32
Brendon De Jonge -6.02
Kristoffer Ventura -5.73
Sangmoon Bae -4.12
John Merrick -4.10
David Gazzolo -3.89
Hunter Mahan -3.62
Greg Chalmers -3.60
J.J. Henry -3.51
Stephan Jaeger -3.50
Andres Romero -3.44
Omar Uresti -3.41
Grayson Murray -3.30
Josh Teater -3.02
Brian Stuard -2.84
Anirban Lahiri -2.82
Nelson Ledesma -2.59
Camilo Villegas -2.55
Taylor Pendrith -2.52
Strokes Gained Ratings Key
***Golfer qualifies as a buy/fade in strokes gained putting AND strokes gained tee to green