Palmetto Championship: Golfers To Buy & Fade Using Strokes Gained Data

· Golf,PGA,Chris Dell

By Chris Dell

To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here.

Last Updated on Thursday, June 10th @ 12:32 a.m. EST: One important change to note below is that I've added another layer of thresholds that will help us "rank" our top buys/fades not just by our Strokes Gained Net Rating but by specific data within those ratings, including a course-specific data point of that's most relevant for the current tournament. We will use this new stat after Round 1 to help qualify buy/fade golfers by tier, and not just purely base off their Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR), which at times can be heavily skewed by extremely negative putting numbers (and not much else positive to speak for). For example, if a golfer loses 7 strokes putting in one round, yet only gains one stroke tee to green, his SGR will be popping off the charts (+6.00) even though he's only clearing technically one threshold (bad putting due to regress positively in the next round). On the contrary, a golfer who gained multiples strokes tee to green - but also putts fairly well - might not come in too strong compared to his peers with his SGR. Lastly, please note that the golfers listed below are ONLY those who competed at last week's Memorial Tournament. We will include buys/fades rankings below based on full tournament data for each golfer (regardless of whether or not they made/missed the cut) AND include Round 4 data only as well.

Primer/Intro: In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets.

In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.

Without rambling on and on too much, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here:

Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

Please Note: I've added a few wrinkles to better help you sort through our buy and fade lists below AND search for the best available head to head matchup bets/odds possible. The golfers with an asterisk by their name will denote that they cleared our buy/fade threshold in all three of the following categories:

Strokes Gained Putting of below -2 or above +2
Strokes Gained Tee To Green of below -2 or above +2
Strokes Gained Net Rating of below -3 or above +3
*Added Threshold For This Weekend/Course Specific -> Strokes Gained Ball Striking of -2/+2 (*this data point will be applied below after the completion of Round 1 of the Palmetto Championship)

I will still also list the full set of golfer names here below who have met our original threshold of having a Strokes Gained Net Rating of either less than -3 or more than +3. The reason for adding the distinction between those who meet all three thresholds - and those who don't - will help give us a clearer view of specific head to head matchup bets to attack from round to round and who gives us the biggest edge.

PALMETTO CHAMPIONSHIP: TOP BUYS

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Round 4 Data From The Memorial Tournament

Rafa Cabrera Bello +3.69

Alex Noren +3.08

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - All Rounds Data From The Memorial Tournament

James Hahn +3.52

Jason Dufner +3.29

Henrik Norlander +3.12

PALMETTO CHAMPIONSHIP: TOP FADES

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Round 4 Data From The Memorial Tournament

***Russell Knox -7.85

***Martin Laird -5.09