Charles Schwab Challenge: Round 3 Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

· Golf,PGA,Chris Dell

By Chris Dell

To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here.

Primer/Intro: In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets.

In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.

Without rambling on and on too much, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here:

Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine our Post-RD1/round to round matchup bets.

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

*Please Note: I've added a few wrinkles to better help you sort through our buy and fade lists below AND search for the best available head to head matchup bets/odds possible. The golfers with an asterisk by their name will denote that they cleared our buy/fade threshold in all three of the following categories:

Strokes Gained Putting of below -2 or above +2
Strokes Gained Tee To Green of below -2 or above +2
Strokes Gained Net Rating of below -3 or above +3

I will still also list the full set of golfer names here below who have met our original threshold of having a Strokes Gained Net Rating of either less than -3 or more than +3. The reason for adding the distinction between those who meet all three thresholds - and those who don't - will help give us a clearer view of specific head to head matchup bets to attack from round to round. The spreadsheet will also reflect this.

ROUND 3 BUYS

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Tee To Green

*Nick Taylor +5.54

*D.A. Points +5.15

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Harold Varner III +6.39

Tyler McCumber +4.35

Justin Thomas +4.33

Tony Finau +3.81

Lucas Glover +3.77

Collin Morikawa +3.64

Kyle Stanley +3.51

Kramer Hickok +3.27

Doug Ghim +2.96

ROUND 3 FADES

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Tee To Green

*Abraham Ancer -5.47

*Richy Werenski -5.06

*Matt Wallace -4.71

*Rory Sabbatini -4.38

*Scott Stallings -3.64

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Sebastian Munoz -6.21

C.T. Pan -3.77

Mark Hubbard -3.70