By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here.
Primer/Intro: In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.
Without rambling on and on too much, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here:
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
Please Note: I've added a few wrinkles to better help you sort through our buy and fade lists below AND search for the best available head to head matchup bets/odds possible. The golfers with asterisks by their name will denote that they cleared our buy/fade threshold in either 2, 3 or 4 of the following categories:
- Strokes Gained Putting of below -2 or above +2
- Strokes Gained Tee To Green of below -2 or above +2
- Strokes Gained Net Rating of below -3 or above +3
- *Added Threshold For This Weekend/Course Specific -> Strokes Gained Approach of -2/+2 (*this data point will be applied below after the completion of Round 1 of this current week's tournament)
JOHN DEERE CLASSIC: ROUND 4 TOP BUYS
Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR)
***Patrick Rodgers +5.49
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*Zach Johnson +4.92
*Brandon Hagy +4.50
*John Huh +4.18
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Camilo Villegas +3.84
Michael Gellerman +3.69
Shawn Stefani +3.50
Luke List +3.37
Patton Kizzire +3.20
Doug Ghim +2.96
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Jhonattan Vegas +2.65
Steve Stricker +2.52
Kevin Tway +2.42
Harold Varner III +2.41
Kyle Stanley +2.01
JOHN DEERE CLASSIC: ROUND 4 TOP FADES
Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR)
***Sam Ryder -6.94
** Sungjae Im -5.51
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*Rhein Gibson -4.24
*Ted Potter Jr -3.69
*Alex Smalley -3.14
*Nick Taylor -2.48
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Chesson Hadley -4.77
John Senden -4.20
Daniel Berger -3.33
Willie Mack III -3.26
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J.J. Spaun -2.92
Andrew Landry -2.85
Scott Brown -2.82
Adam Schenk -2.38
Scott Piercy -2.00
Strokes Gained Ratings Key
***Golfer qualifies as a buy/fade in strokes gained putting, strokes gained tee to green AND strokes gained approach
**Golfer qualifies as a buy/fade in strokes gained putting AND strokes gained tee to green
*Golfer qualifies as a buy/fade in strokes gained putting OR strokes gained tee to green, in addition to at least one course threshold metric