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The Northern Trust: Round 4 Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

· PGA,Golf,Chris Dell

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here.

Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets.

In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.

Update (8/22/21): As of August 22st, 2021, I've officially ADDED a new formula in our strokes gained model to group strokes gained putting AND strokes gained around the green. From what I've tracked over the last few months is that "around the green" is much closer to putting in that it's a high variance metric from round to round. This is opposed to our two main sticky stats, which are strokes gained approach + strokes gained off the tee (these two combine to equal "strokes gained ball striking"). Therefore, we will be subtracting both strokes gained putting and strokes gained around the green from our main sticky stat of strokes gained ball striking. I believe this will increase the consistency and strength of our overall model and strokes gained rating system moving forward when it comes to identifying head to head matchup bets and valuable futures/props after Round 1 of a given tournament, as well as finding value in DFS lineups.

Without rambling on and on too much more, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here: Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
NORTHERN TRUST: ROUND 4 TOP BUYS

***Shane Lowry

**Cameron Smith

**Cameron Champ

*Aaron Wise

*Paul Casey

Strokes Gained Rating - Tee To Green

*Aaron Wise +6.61

*Cameron Smith +6.04

Tony Finau +5.27

*Paul Casey +5.02

*Shane Lowry +4.46

*Cameron Champ +3.59

Hudson Swafford +3.54

Patton Kizzire +3.45

Kramer Hickok +3.25

Joaquin Niemann +3.17

Scottie Scheffler +3.05

Strokes Gained Rating - Ball Striking (Around The Green Not Included)

Paul Casey +5.44

Cameron Champ +5.32

Aaron Wise +5.24

Cameron Smith +5.14

Shane Lowry +4.53

Tony Finau +4.44

Hudson Swafford +3.97

Peter Malnati +3.84

Kramer Hickok +3.15

Strokes Gained Rating - Approach (Around The Green & Off The Tee Not Included)

Cameron Champ +4.26

Shane Lowry +3.97

Peter Malnati +3.62

Russell Henley +3.29

Aaron Wise +3.26

Cameron Smith +3.05

Strokes Gained TRUE RATING - Ball Striking

Cameron Champ +7.05

Paul Casey +5.86

Peter Malnati +4.73

Shane Lowry +4.59

Hudson Swafford +4.39

Cameron Smith +4.23

Aaron Wise +3.86

Sam Burns +3.69

Tony Finau +3.62

Daniel Berger +3.58

Russell Henley +3.51

Pat Perez +3.38

Corey Conners +3.26

Kramer Hickok +3.05

Strokes Gained TRUE RATING - Approach

Cameron Champ +5.99

Peter Malnati +4.51

Shane Lowry +4.04

Russell Henley +3.94

Paul Casey +3.25

Pat Perez +3.22

Daniel Berger +3.04

Strokes Gained Tee To Green

Cameron Smith +7.17

Shane Lowry +5.38

Corey Conners +4.50

Paul Casey +3.66

Aaron Wise +3.45

Doug Ghim +3.32

Erik Van Rooyen +3.29

Joaquin Niemann +3.23

Strokes Gained Approach

 

Shane Lowry +4.89

Cameron Smith +4.18

Sam Burns +3.18

Cameron Champ +3.11

Corey Conners +3.03

Talor Gooch +2.96

Pat Perez +2.67

Joaquin Niemann +2.56

Viktor Hovland +2.39

Charley Hoffman +2.17

Gary Woodland +1.99

Daniel Berger +1.90

Harry Higgs +1.87

Sebastian Munoz +1.72

NORTHERN TRUST: ROUND 4 TOP FADES

***Harris English

***Scott Piercy

**Tom Hoge

**Carlos Ortiz

*Lanto Griffin

*Andrew Putnam

Strokes Gained Rating - Tee To Green

Tom Hoge -5.96

Lanto Griffin -5.91

Chris Kirk -5.62

Andrew Putnam -5.42

Harris English -5.32

Harold Varner -5.25

Gary Woodland -5.13

Scott Piercy -4.14

Carlos Ortiz -3.72

Brian Harman -3.41

Strokes Gained Rating - Ball Striking (Around The Green Not Included)

 

Scott Piercy -5.40

Harris English -5.10

Carlos Ortiz -4.97

Tom Hoge -4.88

Lanto Griffin -4.82

Harold Varner -4.69

Andrew Putnam -4.37

Chris Kirk -4.08

Gary Woodland -4.01

Brian Harman -3.19

Billy Horschel -3.18

Strokes Gained Rating - Approach (Around The Green & Off The Tee Not Included)

Scott Piercy -6.52

Tom Hoge -5.21

Harris English -3.81

Carlos Ortiz -3.75

Chris Kirk -3.18

Strokes Gained TRUE RATING - Ball Striking

 

Scott Piercy -6.66

Carlos Ortiz -6.23

Billy Horschel -4.90

Harris English -4.88

Alex Noren -4.51

Harold Varner -4.13

Tom Hoge -3.81

Lanto Griffin -3.72

Kevin Na -3.62

Andrew Putnam -3.32

Robert Streb -3.25

Xander Schauffele -3.11

Kevin Streelman -3.01

Strokes Gained TRUE RATING - Approach

 

Scott Piercy -7.78

Carlos Ortiz -5.01

Robert Streb -4.80

Tom Hoge -4.14

Billy Horschel -4.01

Harris English -3.59

Kevin Na -3.48

Erik Van Rooyen -3.41

Kyounghoon Lee -3.35

Alex Noren -3.27

Strokes Gained Tee To Green

Brian Harman -5.56

Lanto Griffin -5.31

Andrew Putnam -4.56

Scott Piercy =-4.42

Harris English -3.51

Denny McCarthy -3.11

Strokes Gained Approach

Scott Piercy -6.81

Robert Streb -3.53

Bryson DeChambeau -3.42

Kevin Na -2.52

Brian Harman -2.47

Kyounghoon Lee -2.21

Harris English -2.00

Andrew Putnam -1.98

Alex Noren -1.87

Dylan Frittelli -1.81

Hideki Matsuyama -1.83

Carlos Ortiz -1.74

Lanto Griffin -1.74

Webb Simpson -1.73

Tom Hoge -1.59

Strokes Gained Ratings Key

****Golfer qualifies in 7 of 7 threshold metrics

**Golfer qualifies in at least 6 of 7 threshold metrics

*Golfer qualifies in at least 5 of 7 threshold metrics

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