By Chris Dell
In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. Two of the main statistics we start with here are Strokes Gained Approach & Strokes Gained Tee To Green. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" formula, which I will summarize below, we will be able to determine our best buys and fades for Round 4 of the Valspar Championship. The head-to-head matchup best bets listed at the bottom of this are strictly ones that I've bet personally using the odds at BetDSI, and I will be tracking these publicly for each PGA Tour tournament on our golf picks tracker. All spreadsheet links and resource/data links will also be listed at the bottom of this article, in addition to our Strokes Gained/Golf Betting 101 primer article from the fall.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each set of our two data points (strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other, we will pass, in almost every scenario. Lastly, I will include two separate buy/fade lists for "Strokes Gained: Ball Striking" and "Strokes Gained: Tee To Green."
The reason for including these is because both ball striking and tee to green are golf statistics that include off the tee and approach. Without rambling on and on, I'll explain how these stats are sorted out here:
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine our Post-RD1 and round to round matchup bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
Full Disclosure: Living in Florida, I unfortunately do not have access to books like PointsBet, DraftKings or FanDuel, most of which I'm sure will often offer better matchup opportunities and better odds than I'm betting offshore. Either way, the main goal of this column will be to highlight which golfers to bet - and which to bet against - regardless of what outs/books you have available. If you're able to find a direct matchup between a "Fade" golfer and a "Buy" golfer, that of course would be the most ideal situation.
**Qualifies as a buy/fade candidate in all categories below
*Qualifies as a buy/fade candidate in multiple categories below
ROUND 4 BUYS (Strokes Gained Net Rating - Approach)
**Jason Dufner +4.26
**Keegan Bradley +4.17
J.B. Holmes +4.07
**Kyoung-Hoon Lee +3.73
*Joseph Bramlett +3.5`
*Max Homa +3.41
Corey Conners +3.40
Paul Casey +3.14
ROUND 4 BUYS (Strokes Gained Net Rating - Off The Tee)
**Keegan Bradley +3.96
Dustin Johnson +3.63
**Jason Dufner +3.28
**Kyoung-Hoon Lee +4.04
Tom Lewis +3.42
Peter Uihlein +3.11
ROUND 4 BUYS (Strokes Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking)
**Jason Dufner +5.63
**Keegan Bradley +5.48
**Kyoung-Hoon Lee +4.90
*Max Homa +3.84
*Viktor Hovland +3.76
*Corey Conners +3.53
*Justin Thomas +3.20
*Joseph Bramlett +3.03
ROUND 4 BUYS (Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green)
**Keegan Bradley +6.77
**Jason Dufner +6.30
**Kyoung-Hoon Lee +5.21
*Viktor Hovland +4.32
*Corey Conners +4.11
*Justin Thomas +4.04
Jhonattan Vegas +3.33
*Max Homa +3.26
Adam Schenk +3.20
**Qualifies as a buy/fade candidate in all categories below
*Qualifies as a buy/fade candidate in multiple categories below
ROUND 4 FADES (Strokes Gained Net Rating - Approach)
**J.T. Poston -6.18
**Pat Perez -5.39
**Denny McCarthy -5.04
*Ryan Moore -4.14
**Ted Potter Jr. -3.95
Ryan Palmer -3.63
ROUND 4 FADES (Strokes Gained Net Rating - Off The Tee)
**Ted Potter Jr. -5.35
*Vaughn Taylor -4.94
*Louis Oosthuizen -4.49
**Denny McCarthy -4.02
**J.T. Poston -3.42
**Pat Perez -3.18
ROUND 4 FADES (Strokes Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking)
**Pat Perez -6.06
**J.T. Poston -5.70
*Vaughn Taylor -5.11
**Denny McCarthy -4.86
*Beau Hossler -4.85
**Ted Potter Jr. -3.57
Ian Poulter -3.40
Kevin Na -3.11
ROUND 4 FADES (Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green)
**J.T. Poston -7.32
**Pat Perez -6.55
*Beau Hossler -5.95
**Denny McCarthy -5.93
**Ted Potter Jr. -3.97
Patton Kizzire -3.83
*Ryan Moore -3.78
*Vaughn Taylor -3.45
*Ian Poulter -3.39
*Louis Oosthuizen -3.24
*** = Direct matchup between buy vs. fade candidates below
ROUND 4 BEST BETS
***Vegas +140 > Palmer
***Dufner -125 > Perez
***Hovland -125 > Oosthuizen
***Homa -143 > Na
***Homa -237 > Potter Jr.
ROUND 4 BONUS BETS
D. Lee +135 > Na
Lewis +135 > Im
Hickok +110 > Poston
Clark +105 > McCarthy
Howell -103 > McCarthy
Bradley -115 > Burns
Scheffler -120 > Oosthuizen
Merritt -125 > Potter Jr.
K. Hoon Lee -125 > Stallings
Burgoon -128 > V. Taylor
Noren -150 > Moore
Conners -165 > Howell
Kokrak -225 > Taylor
ROUND 4 OUTRIGHT LONGSHOT
Viktor Hovland +15000 (1/4 unit max)