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Memorial Tournament: Round 3 Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

· Golf,PGA,Chris Dell

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here.

Last Updated on Friday, June 4th @ 11:05 p.m. EST: Another large swath of golfers again was unable to complete their full round of 18 holes, this time on Friday for Round 2, yet we this time around we have even more data points to sift through before Saturday morning tee time. The plan is for the golfers who didn't finish Round 2 to finish those 18 holes and then get right back out there for Round 3 later in the day on Saturday, and this time we go from roughly 60 to now 75 golfers who did put in a full round Friday. We're still going to list all golfers below for buys/fades, but with a special denotation for those who didn't complete 18 holes on Friday. The last note I will make here is that for those golfers who did shoot less than 18 holes, we will lower their Strokes Gained Rating threshold to either below -2 or above +2, instead of the normal threshold of either below -3 or above +3. Now let's dive into the data!

Primer/Intro: In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets.

In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.

Without rambling on and on too much, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here:

Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine our Post-RD1/round to round matchup bets.

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

*Please Note: I've added a few wrinkles to better help you sort through our buy and fade lists below AND search for the best available head to head matchup bets/odds possible. The golfers with an asterisk by their name will denote that they cleared our buy/fade threshold in all three of the following categories:

  • Strokes Gained Putting of below -2 or above +2
  • Strokes Gained Tee To Green of below -2 or above +2
  • Strokes Gained Net Rating of below -3 or above +3

I will still also list the full set of golfer names here below who have met our original threshold of having a Strokes Gained Net Rating of either less than -3 or more than +3. The reason for adding the distinction between those who meet all three thresholds - and those who don't - will help give us a clearer view of specific head to head matchup bets to attack from round to round and who gives us the biggest edge.

ROUND 3: TOP BUYS

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR)

*Henrick Norlander +7.18

*Camilo Villegas +6.47

*Kevin Streelman +4.61

------------------------

Jordan Spieth +5.74

Matt Wallace +4.29

Viktor Hovland +3.93

Alex Noren +3.65

Russell Henley +3.55

Talor Gooch +3.49

------------------------

**Tony Finau +4.98

**Collin Morikawa +3.54

**Tyler McCumber +3.53

**Danny Willett +3.43

**Jimmy Walker +3.41

**Xander Schauffele +3.27

**Jason Dufner +2.85

**Hideki Matsuyama +2.84

**Billy Horschel +2.58

**Harold Varner III +2.33

**Gary Woodland +2.22

ROUND 3: TOP FADES

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR)

*Cameron Tringale -6.87

*J.T. Poston -5.29

*Martin Laird -4.32

*Patton Kizzire -4.13

*David Lingmerth -3.59

------------------------

Haotong Li -9.03

Patrick Rodgers -4.77

Sepp Straka -4.20

Wyndham Clark -4.12

Joaquin Niemann -3.44

Emiliano Grillo -3.35

Victor Perez -3.02

Vaughn Taylor -3.02

------------------------

**Bubba Watson -7.01

**Brian Gay -5.03

**Cameron Champ -4.51

**Adam Hadwin -3.05

**Brendan Steele -2.81

**Denny McCarthy -2.58

**Christiaan Bezuidenhout -2.52

Strokes Gained Ratings Key

**Golfer did not complete 18 holes on Friday

*Golfer qualifies for all three buy/fade thresholds: SG putting, SG tee to green, SG net rating

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