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The Northern Trust: Round 3 Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

· PGA,Golf,Chris Dell

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here.

Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets.

In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.

Update (8/21/21): As of August 21st, 2021, I've officially changed the formula in our strokes gained model to group strokes gained putting AND strokes gained around the green. From what I've tracked over the last few months is that "around the green" is much closer to putting in that it's a high variance metric from round to round. This is opposed to our two main sticky stats, which are strokes gained approach + strokes gained off the tee (these two combine to equal "strokes gained ball striking"). Therefore, we will be subtracting both strokes gained putting and strokes gained around the green from our main sticky stat of strokes gained ball striking. I believe this will increase the consistency and strength of our overall model and strokes gained rating system moving forward when it comes to identifying head to head matchup bets and valuable futures/props after Round 1 of a given tournament, as well as finding value in DFS lineups.

Without rambling on and on too much more, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here: Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

NORTHERN TRUST: ROUND 3 TOP BUYS

Strokes Gained Rating - Ball Striking (SGR)

*Scottie Scheffler +7.10

*Russell Henley +6.38

Marc Leishman +5.76

*Sungjae Im +5.27

*Bryson DeChambeau +4.97

*Lee Westwood +4.71

*Chez Reavie +4.33

*Aaron Wise +4.22

John Rahm +4.05

Joel Dahmen +3.96

Gary Woodland +3.83

*Sebastian Munoz +3.57

Joaquin Niemann +3.32

*Max Homa +3.10

Paul Casey +3.03

NORTHERN TRUST: ROUND 3 TOP FADES

Strokes Gained Rating - Ball Striking (SGR)

*Kevin Na -7.94

*Rory McIlroy -7.31

Cameron Tringale -5.39

*Robert Streb -5.23

Lanto Griffin -5.12

Stewart Cink -4.88

*Cameron Davis -4.52

Seamus Power -4.12

Cameron Champ -4.05

Zach Johnson -3.75

Harry Higgs -3.72

Brandt Snedeker -3.66

Peter Malnati -3.50

Kyounghoon Lee -3.35

Alex Noren -3.03

Strokes Gained Ratings Key

*Golfer qualifies as a buy/fade in strokes gained approach (+3/-3) AND strokes gained rating for ball striking (+3/-3). Strokes gained rating = "approach/off the tee" minus "putting/around the green"

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