Lead golf betting analyst Chris Dell is +32.9 units on all majors betting this season (The Masters and PGA Championship) in our Betting Predators premium golf picks package. He breaks down his top six best bets - as well as top golfers to buy and fade - for the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club in this FREE article:
By Chris Dell
Key stats, consensus power ratings and actionable data points for the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club in Los Angeles, California. All rankings below are adjusted for injuries and current field.
What: U.S. Open
Where: Los Angeles Country Club, CA
When: June 15-18, 2023
The Course: Par 70; 7,421 Yards
The Previous Five Winners (2022-2018): Matt Fitzpatrick (2022), John Rahm (2021), Bryson DeChambeau (2020), Gary Woodland (2019), Brooks Koepka x2 (2017-2018)
To formulate our power ratings, as well as top buys and top fades, we will simply tally up the number of “negative quality” traits and “positive quality” traits that shows up for each golfer below. The net score of “positive trait - negative trait” will determine whether a golfer makes the list as a top buy or a top fade. Any golfer who scores between -1 to +1 will not be listed in the final power ratings. Therefore, we will only show top buys who score +2 or higher, and we will only show top fades who score -2 or lower. When it comes to the LIV, please note that there are far less stats/traits publicly available to track for these golfers. Because of this, we will add our section for “LIV Top Buys” and “LIV Top Fades” below our main power ratings when these golfers are involved. If you have any questions on how we create these weekly consensus power ratings and how we use them to formulate a majority of our pre-tournament bets, message us on Twitter @BetPredators or send an email to bettingpredators@gmail.com.
Please note: these pre-tournament consensus power ratings below are different from our “in-tournament” live betting model, which you can access as part of our premium golf picks package. Our premium picks package also includes all pre-tournament best bets, every week.
- All “negative quality” traits for players below will be bolded/italicized
- All other mentions of player names will be considered as “positive quality” traits
- Golfers with an asterisk (*) means that they have both negative + positive quality traits
Abbreviation key:
SG = Strokes Gained
L24 = Last 24
OWG = Official World Golf
APP = Approach
OTT = Off The Tee
ARG = Around The Green
PUTT = Putting
BS = Ball Striking
T2G = Tee To Green
DG = Data Golf
Xander Schauffele, two-time PGA Tour winner, looks to add to his trophy case at the 2023 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club
CHRIS DELL'S BONUS BEST BETS
Place to finish:
Xander T30 @ Bet365 -150
Tournament matchups:
Bennett > Thorbjornsen @ BO -115
Pieters > Munoz @ BO -105
First round matchups:
Montgomery > Munoz @ UB -125
Cink > Kaymer @ UB -167
Barjon > Horsey @ UB -136
TOP BUYS - TIER 1
Scheffler +40
Rahm +31
Rory +29
Cantlay +27
Xander +24
Hovland +17
TOP BUYS - TIER 2
Finau +15
Hatton +14
*Morikawa +13
Clark +12
Spieth +11
Fleetwood +11
*Hideki +10
*Rose +9
*Day +8
Fowler +8
Fitzpatrick +6
*Young +6
TOP BUYS - TIER 3
JT +4
M. Kim +4
Hadwin +4
Kuchar +4
*Homa +4
Woodland +3
Scott +3
Nienaber +3
Burns +2
Lowry +2
Straka +2
Conners +2
Bradley +2
Kirk +2
Norrman +2
Rey +2
Min Woo Lee +2
N. Taylor +2
*Grant +2
TOP BUYS - TIER LIV
Koepka +17
DJ +9
Cam Smith +7
Bryson +7
Pereira +5
Niemann +4
Reed +2
TOP FADES - TIER 1
McClean -5
Gumberg -5
Horsey -4
Truslow -4
Yang -3
Wenyi Ding -3
Fernandez de Oliveira -3
Schutte -2
Cavaliere -2
Simmons -2
Mueller -2
Morales -2
Amat -2
Brown Jr. -2
Schaake -2
Grey -2
Svoboda -2
Nyfjall -2
Thorbjornsen -2
Munoz -2
TOP FADES - TIER LIV
Kaymer -2
Bryson DeChambeau, 2020 U.S. Open champion, eyes another major, this time at Los Angeles Country Club
DataGolf Implied Win Probability
Scheffler 13.0%
Rory 6.4%
Rahm 6.3%
Xander 5.9%
Cantlay 5.6%
Hovland 3.7%
Koepka 3.5%
Spieth 3.0%
Finau 2.5%
Hatton 2.4%
Fitzpatrick 2.1%
Fowler 2.0%
Cam Smith 2.0%
Day 1.9%
Morikawa 1.9%
NumberFire Win Simulation Model
Scheffler 11.8%
Rahm 10.1%
Koepka 5.8%
Xander 5.6%
Cantlay 5.4%
Rory 4.5%
Hovland 3.6%
Hatton 2.9%
Morikawa 2.9%
Finau 2.8%
Spieth 2.2%
Homa 2.1%
Day 1.7%
Fitzpatrick 1.6%
Cam Smith 1.6%
DataGolf Rankings (Field-Adjusted)
Scheffler
Rahm
Xander
Rory
Cantlay
Hatton
Hovland
Finau
Morikawa
Spieth
Cam Smith
Clark
Fowler
Rose
Fitzpatrick
OWG Rankings (Field Adjusted)
Scheffler
Rahm
Rory
Cantlay
Hovland
Xander
Homa
Fitzpatrick
Cam Smith
Spieth
Finau
Koepka
Hatton
Burns
JT
Action Network’s Model Rankings
Scheffler
Rory
Hatton
Hovland
Hideki
Finau
Fowler
Fleetwood
Cantlay
Si Woo Kim
Koepka
Day
Spieth
Xander
Pereira
Betsperts Golf’s Model Rankings
Scheffler
Xander
Cantlay
Clark
Koepka
Hovland
Hatton
Rahm
Rory
Fowler
Rose
Lowry
Hideki
Niemann
Fleetwood
Homa
Morikawa
Si Woo Kim
Woodland
M. Kim
McCarthy
Finau
Cole
Spieth
Schenk
Straka
Conners
Fitzpatrick
Bradley
Cam Smith
DJ
Scott
Day
Hadwin
Suh
Viktor Hovland, 2022 PGA Championship runner-up, looks to win his first major at the 2023 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club
SG: APP L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Scheffler (+40.6)
Rahm (+36.3)
Clark (+26.4)
Morikawa (+26.4)
Hovland (+21.0)
SG: OTT L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Cantlay (+29.2)
Scheffler (+29.1)
Bryson (+18.2)
Woodland (+17.6)
Young (+17.0)
SG: ARG L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Scheffler (+18.2)
Kuchar (+14.5)
Kirk (+13.4)
Fowler (+13.0)
Fleetwood (+12.1)
SG: TOTAL Par 70 Over 7.400 Yards L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Koepka (+57.6)
Hideki (+29.6)
DJ (+27.5)
Day (+27.4)
Hatton (+22.9)
Proximity 175+ Yards L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Rahm (+23.5)
Scheffler (+21.4)
Hovland (+19.8)
Hideki(+18.2)
Rose (+16.8)
SG: TOTAL AVG 2023 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Scheffler
Rahm
Hatton
Xander
Cantlay
Fleetwood
Homa
Rory
Finau
Day
Fowler
Rose
SG: APP AVG 2023 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Scheffler
Morikawa
Rahm
Hoge
SG: OTT AVG 2023 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Scheffler
Cantlay
DRIVING DISTANCE AVG 2023 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Rory
Young
Woodland
Rahm
Norrman
Scott
Mitchell
Davis
List
Burns
Scheffler
Grant
D. Thompson
SG: ARG AVG 2023 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Kuchar
Fleetwood
Scheffler
BIRDIE PERCENTAGE (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Rahm
Cantlay
Finau
Player Decompositions - Driving Distance (DataGolf)
Nienaber
Rory
Bryson
Rey
Potgieter
Young
Min Woo Lee
–
Horsey
Player Decompositions - Baseline (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Rahm
Xander
Rory
Cantlay
–
Schutte
Yang
Cavaliere
Simmons
Mueller
Morales
McClean
Amat
Browne Jr.
Gumberg
Schaake
Grey
Svoboda
Nyfjall
Player Decompositions - Major Championships (DataGolf)
Koepka
Player Decompositions - Weighted SG (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Young
Grant
–
Noren
Rose
Player Decompositions - Final Course Adjustments (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Rahm
Rory
Xander
Cantlay
Hovland
Koepka
–
Schutte
Yang
Cavaliere
Mueller
Simmons
Browne Jr.
McClean
Amat
Schaake
Grey
Morales
Svoboda
Gumberg
Nyfjall
Truslow
Horsey
Query Tool - T2G L6 Months (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Koepka
–
Gumberg
McClean
Fernandez de Oliveira
Truslow
Wenyi Ding
Query Tool - Driving Distance L6 Months (DataGolf)
Potgeiter
Sarget
Nienaber
Rey
Rory
Young
Bryson
DJ
Min Woo Lee
Norrman
–
Kaymer
Horsey
Armour
Haley
Query Tool - SG TOTAL L6 Months (DataGolf)
Yang
Truslow
Query Tool - SG APP L6 Months (DataGolf)
Koepka
Scheffler
Pereira
Morikawa
Rahm
Xander
Finau
Clark
–
Gumberg
Fernandez de Oliveira
Munoz
Wenyi Ding
Horsey
Carr
Wise
Thorbjornsen
Query Tool - SG OTT L6 Months (DataGolf)
Bryson
Potgeiter
Scheffler
Sargent
Carr
Pereira
Cantlay
Rory
Koepka
Niemann
–
McClean
Meissner
Fernandez de Oliveira
Noren
Query Tool - SG ARG L6 Months (DataGolf)
Reed
Hideki
Kuchar
Scheffler
Kirk
–
Sargent
Potgeiter
McClean
Gumberg
Truslow
Garcia
Germishuys
Fisher
Grant
Wenyi Ding
Ancer
Munoz
Buckley
Lebioda
Expected Wins PGA Tour (DataGolf)
Rahm
Scheffler
Homa
Finau
Hovland
Xander
Cantlay
Rory
N. Taylor
Kitayama
Clark
SG: APP L50 RDS (Betsperts)
Scheffler
Rahm
Clark
Morikawa
Rose
Grillo
Hovland
Hideki
Straka
Finau
OPPORTUNITIES GAINED L50 RDS (Betsperts)
Clark
Sungjae
N. Taylor
Hideki
Hatton
Xander
Cantlay
Hadwin
Spieth
Day
SG OTT/WEIGHTED DISTANCE L50 RDS (Betsperts)
Scheffler
Cantlay
Lowry
M. Kim
Xander
Hatton
Hovland
Rahm
Spieth
Fleetwood
PAR 3 SCORING 225+ YARDS L50 RDS (Betsperts)
Rahm
Rory
K.H. Lee
Dahmen
Hadwin
Noren
Young
Garcia
Bradley
Scheffler
PROXIMITY 200+ YARDS L50 RDS (Betsperts)
Rahm
Niemann
Hoge
Finau
Scheffler
Rose
Rory
DJ
Hoffman
Hideki
RECENT FORM L50 RDS (Betsperts)
Scheffler
Hovland
Rory
Hatton
Clark
Xander
Rose
Fleetwood
Clark
Rahm
DIFFICULT COURSE FORM L50 RDS (Betsperts)
Scheffler
Hovland
Rory
Xander
Cantlay
Spieth
Rose
Fleetwood
Clark
Hatton
PUTTING FROM 5-10 FEET LIGHTNING/FAST L50 RDS (Betsperts)
Fleetwood
T. Moore
Kuchar
English
Fox
Montgomery
Rose
Koepka
Cam Smith
Harman
BOGEY AVOIDANCE L50 RDS (Betsperts)
Day
Clark
Fleetwood
Scheffler
Hideki
Hatton
Xander
Cantlay
Hadwin
Spieth
PEAKING AND FADING RECENT FORM L50 RDS (Betsperts)
Hideki
Fowler
Spieth
Conners
M. Kim
–
Hoge
Homa
Young
Suh
Si Woo Kim
SG: AVG Strong Field Events 2019-2022 (Betsperts)
Rahm
Rory
JT
SG: AVG West Coast Events 2019-2022 (Betsperts)
Rahm
Day
Cantlay
Rory
JT
Xander
Morikawa
SG: AVG Long Courses 2018-2022 (Betsperts)
Rahm
Rory
Cantlay
Best SG: AVG Strong Field Events (Betsperts)
Rahm
Rory
JT
Xander
Scheffler
Cantlay
Morikawa
Fitzpatrick
Course History: U.S. Open Courses TRUE SG (DataGolf)
Xander
Koepka
Power
Hideki
Morikawa
M. Kim
DJ
Rory
Scheffler
T. Kim
Reed
Rahm
–
Thorbjornsen
TRUE SG: TOTAL 2023 (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Rahm
Xander
Cantlay
Rory
Hovland
Finau
TRUE SG: T2G 2023 (DataGolf)
Koepka
Scheffler
Pereira
Rahm
Cantlay
Rory
Morikawa
Bryson
Finau
Xander
Hovland
TRUE SG: OTT 2023 (DataGolf)
Bryson
Sargent
Scheffler
Rory
Cantlay
Koepka
Niemann
TRUE SG: APP 2023 (DataGolf)
Koepka
Pereira
Scheffler
Morikawa
Xander
Rahm
Finau
TREND INDEX L4 MONTHS 2023 (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Koepka
Rahm
Hatton
Xander
Fowler
Rose
Fleetwood
Henley
Cantlay
Scott
Hovland
Clark
Cam Smith
SKILL RATINGS: DISTANCE (DataGolf)
Nienaber
Rory
Bryson
Young
SKILL RATINGS: SG TOTAL (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Rahm
Cantlay
Xander
Rory
SKILL RATINGS: SG OTT (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Rory
Cantlay
SKILL RATINGS: SG APP (DataGolf)
Scheffler
Rahm
Morikawa
SG SCORES: LAST WEEK RDS 1-4 (Betting Predators)
Grant
SG SCORES: LAST WEEK RD4 (Betting Predators)
Pendrith
INJURY REPORT (Establish The Run/Underdog Network)
Morikawa (Back)
Hideki (Neck)
Day (Wrist)
Kaymer (Wrist)
Patrick Reed, 2018 Masters champion, will represent LIV Golf at the 2023 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club this weekend
Resources used for this week's article:
• DataGolf
• Strokes Gained Scores & Live Betting/Putting Regression Model (Chris Dell/Betting Predators)
• Action Network’s Weekly PGA Tour Model Rankings (Matt Vincenzi/Action Network)
• PGA Tour Weekly Course Preview & Key Tournament Stats (Ron Klos/Betsperts)
• PGA Tour Weekly Research and Key Stat Model (Pat James/Betsperts)
• PGA Tour Injury News & Player Notes (Nick DeMott/Underdog Network)
• NumberFire’s PGA Tour Course Key Stats and Win Simulations (Brandon Gdula/NumberFire)
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and editor who been published in The New York Times, New York Daily News, ESPN, and Yahoo, among other publications. He’s also the co-founder and director of fantasy football/player props content for The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, and more, follow Chris on Twitter @MaddJournalist