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Our goal is pretty simple with these articles - to help find some you some winners. We will be doing approximately two of these data deep dives per week (until the end of the Finals) and are pulling most of the information from Oddshark's 1st half/1st quarter stats. Despite some of the notable trends, stats and numbers you'll note in this article, we cannot stress this enough - don’t bet every single game below.
Why? Well, what we cannot forecast is injuries, and in some of these games further research is needed closer to gametime in order to get more injury/player health clarity. Rule 101 in betting the NBA (profitably, in the long term) is you shouldn't be betting strictly off trends (especially mainstream media trends). These trends, however, can still serve as a baseline for what to avoid - or what to target - based on accumulating important injury/inactive news, minutes restriction information and/or NBA playoff/play-in motivation.
All of the trends/data points listed below are based on who is home and who is away and also includes a sample of a team's last 10 games, regardless of the venue. These trends are updated weekly and were last updated on Tuesday, May 11, 2021. For Part I of 2 this week, we will keep this article short, due to the fact we have no idea who is playing later in the week and what teams want to do. We will be staying away from games with team(s) who don’t have anything to play for (excluding the Minnesota Timberwolves, who seem like they are actually trying to win). This is a weird week for the NBA, and none of these trends or #'s matter with so many players who are going to be on minutes restrictions and not playing at all.
Wednesday May 12
Wizards @ Hawks (1st Quarter Over)
These two teams just played the other night (the Hawks won a close one, 125-124) and there were 66 points scored in the first quarter alone. The Hawks are 6-4 to the first quarter over in their last 10 at home with an average of 59.7 points. The Wizards, on the other hand, are a perfect 10-0 to the over their last 10 on the road. We all know Westbrook just got the triple double title from Oscar Robertson and both of these teams will also be fighting for their rightful spots in the Eastern Conference playoffs in some form or fashion. In the Wizards' previous game (Saturday at the Indiana Pacers), the two teams combined scored 65 points in the first quarter. De'Andre Hunter's return provides a defensive improvement for Atlanta, but he's still on a minutes restriction and we expect Washington to attack Trae Young defensive here as well.
Thursday May 13
76ers @ Heat (76ers ATS 1st Half)
With Jimmy Butler recently getting poked in the eye, he may or may not be missing this game or at least be restricted depending on what happens to the #7 seed for the Eastern Conference playoffs. The 76ers are only 16-17-1 ATS in the first quarter this season on the road, covering by an average of 1.65 ppg, but they are 8-2 their last 10 total road games, covering by a league-best 10.2 ppg. The Heat here are coming off two very important games (both wins) vs. the Celtics and are now three games ahead of Boston and sitting comfortable in the 6th seed. The 76ers are also two games above the Brooklyn Nets for #1 in the East, and if they try and win this game to hold onto home court advantage, then it will be early on here.