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RBC Heritage: Round 2 Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

· Chris Dell,Golf,PGA

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

To view the full spreadsheet of updated round-to-round data for our Strokes Gained Scores, click here

Primer/Intro: Using strokes gained statistics allows us to find strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament when we combine them with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Scores" putting regression formula, we are able to determine top buys and top fades for head-to-head matchup bets, DFS strategy and live betting opportunities from round to round as well. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others, but most weekends the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach, strokes gained ball-striking and strokes gained tee-to-green.

The premise here is that strokes gained putting is wildly unpredictable and will vary from round to round, whereas strokes gained approach (and tee-to-green) is a much "stickier" statistic which better indicates the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained score of +1 or higher (rounded from 0.95), while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of -1 or lower (rounded from -0.95). The goal for betting head-to-head matchups is to find two golfers whose SG GOLFER SCORES combine to equal +1 or higher. For example, Golfer A's SG GOLFER SCORE is +0.35 and Golfer B's SG SCORE -1.21. We substract +0.35 and -1.21 and our SG MATCHUP SCORE then equals +1.56. This is now a bet to make. I typically only bet these head-to-head matchups starting our "top fades" list and working down to all golfers who have a -0.45 or SG GOLFER SCORE or worse. In this case, we can find all instances where our SG MATCHUP SCORE can equal +0.95 or better.

For more on this strategy, just read this free article

Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
The course-specific strokes gained score/putting regression formula we are using this this week is:
<!--td {border: 1px solid #cccccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->(APP x 38.74%) + (OTT x 18.90%) + (ARG x 23.90%) - (PUTT x 18.46%) / 5

RD2 Top Buys

Morikawa 1.77

Dahmen 1.72

Glover 1.71

Kirk 1.44

Finau 1.39

Schenk 1.35

Fitzpatrick 1.31

Young 1.39

Cantlay 1.20

Palmer 1.13

T. Kim 1.07

Lowry 0.99

Xander 0.97

Rose 0.95

RD2 Top Fades

Knox -2.10

Martin -1.63

Love -1.56

Echavarria -1.53

Frittelli -1.50

Homa -1.39

Tarren -1.34

Hadwin -1.32

T. Moore -1.31

Gay -1.25

Gibson -1.21

Ghim -1.13

Detry -1.11

Woodland -1.10

Hoge -1.05

RD1 Best Bets Recap:

Detry > Fox -105 ✅

D. Thompson > Fox +114 ✅

Jaeger > Mitchell -103 ✅

Rai > Min Woo Lee -120 (TBD)

Davis > Werenski -200 ✅

Kitayama > Power +106 ✅

N. Taylor > Power +100 ✅

Detry > Hossler -110 (TBD)

Si Woo Kim > Kisner/Love -140 ✅

Van Rooyen > Ramey/Champ +170 ✅

Davis > Werenski/Landry +105 ✅

Overall: 9-0, +2.4875 Units

For full access to our PGA/Golf Premium Betting Package, which includes all of my pre-tournament best bets and live bets each weekend, you can save 50% by subscribing to our annual golf betting pass here

Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations

Strokes Gained Putting

Strokes Gained Ball Striking

Strokes Gained Tee To Green

Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking

Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green

SG SCORE = Strokes Gained Score

BS = Ball Striking

OTT = Off The Tee

APP = Approach

PUTT = Putting

ARG = Around The Green

T2G = Tee To Green

Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, DFS strategy and more, visit www.bettingpredators.com

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