By Andrew Duhancioglu
@WaryActuary
Editor's Note: The ticket count/money count numbers listed below were written here as of Friday, October 8th, at 9:15 p.m. ET and all numbers are taken from the pregame.com live odds/betting information dashboard
Last Update: Saturday, October 9th at 10:34 p.m. ET
In this article we’ll explore games that have more than 70% of the tickets (“bet %”) on one side of the betting line and provide a useful metric called the “shark delta.” The shark delta will show the difference between the ticket count (bet %) and the actual money count (“handle”). We’ll also dive into games where the shark delta is greater than 10% and help identify where the “sharp/shark” money is going for the weekend. But first, let's recap how games with more than 70% of the tickets played out last week.
As you’ll note in the chart above, the cumulative winning percentage for games with a ticket count greater than 70%, through four weeks, is 55.2%. The masses are coming off a fantastic Week 2 performance (85.7% ATS), however their winning percentage has been 50% or less in all other weeks. Another interesting statistic to note here is that road underdogs are covering the spread 67% of the time and this jumps up to 87.5% when considering games with a shark delta of at least 10% in either direction.
Notable Shark Deltas
CHI vs LV (Home Bet % = 81%)
Opening line = -5.5
Current line = -5.5
Home handle = 63% of money on LV
Shark delta = -18%
Although 81% of the tickets belong to the home team, the Bears have 37% of the handle.
DET vs MIN (Home Bet % = 78%)
Opening line = -8.0
Current line = -10.0
Home handle = 88% of money on MIN
Shark delta = +10%
Minnesota is coming off a tough loss to the Browns and the three teams they've now lost to have a combined record of 10-2. The Lions offensive line has suffered some recent injuries and Detroit’s defense has also been one of the worst in the league.
NYG vs DAL (Home Bet % = 86%)
Opening line = -78.5
Current line = -7.0
Home handle = 77% of money on DAL
Shark delta = -11%
Both NFC East teams are coming off a big victory in Week 4. The Giants could very easily be 3-1 as they had narrow margins of defeat against the Falcons and the Washington Football Team.
BUF vs KC (Home Bet % = 27%)
Opening line = -2.5
Current line = -3.0
Home handle = 14% of money on KC
Shark Delta = -13%
Buffalo is one of the few teams in the NFL that has both an elite offense and defense. With Kansas City having a rough start to the start of their season, this will be a pivotal game for the Bills if they want home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
GB vs CIN (Home Bet % = 23%)
Opening line = +3.0
Current line = +2.5
Home handle = 36% of money on CIN
Shark delta = +13%
Cincinnati has 10 days to prepare for this game as they are coming off a Thursday night game from Week 4. The Bengals are a tough team to beat at home as well. The public perception of this game may have been different if the Bengals pulled off the win against Chicago too, as they would’ve been undefeated heading into Week 5. Green Bay is playing without their top DB Jaire Alexander, which is good news for the Bengals passing attack getting back WR Tee Higgins on Sunday afternoon.
SF vs ARI (Home Bet % = 70%)
Opening line = -4.5
Current line = -5.0
Home handle = 54% of money on ARI
Shark delta = -16%
PHI vs CAR (Home Bet % = 65%)
Opening line = -4.5
Current line = -3.0
Home handle = 45% of money on CAR
Shark delta = -20%
CLE vs LAC (Home Bet % = 57%)
Opening line = -1.5
Current line = -1.0
Home handle = 47% of money on LAC
Shark delta = -10%
DEN vs PIT (Home Bet % = 65%)
Opening line = +1.0
Current line = -1.0
Home handle = 50% of money on PIT
Shark delta = -15%
Heavy Consensus Bets
MIA vs TB (Home Bet % = 85%)
Opening line = -10.5
Current line = -10.0
Home handle = 83% of money on TB
Shark delta = -2%
Tampa Bay’s offense struggled without Gronk last week. In addition, the Bucs’ secondary continues to pile up injuries as the season progresses. QB Jacoby Brissett and the rest of the Miami offense will need all the help they can get if they want to keep this game close.
TEN vs JAX (Home Bet % = 13%)
Opening line = +3.5
Current line = +4.5
Home handle = 10% of money on JAX
Shark delta = -3%
NE vs HOU (Home Bet % = 19%)
Opening line = +9.0
Current line = +8.5
Home handle = 18% of money on HOU
Shark delta = -1%
IND vs BAL (Home Bet % = 86%)
Opening line = -7.0
Current line = -7.0
Home handle = 89% of money on BAL
Shark delta = +3%