Chargers at Bills / Bills -5.5
The Buffalo Bills are on a bye this week, and that will give the bettors something to be excited about heading into Week 12 here in this spot. The Bills are also coming off a great showing in Arizona in Week 10, albeit in a loss - most of the sharp bettors moved the Bills up in the power rankings because of this. Motivation for the Bills off of a loss is something that we have to consider, and also with another west coast road trip at the San Francisco 49ers looming. The Bills need to be ultra-focused here for this game, and they should be, with the Dolphins hot on the Bills' heels right now for the AFC East division race. The Los Angeles Chargers will play the New York Jets in Week 11 and a loss would raise serious concerns for the Chargers' season outlook. Not to mention, the Chargers will also be playing on an east coast trip in the 1 p.m. EST time slot. The Chargers won’t get much healthier from Week 11 to 12 either. In fact, the Chargers stand a good chance of losing players more than the Bills, who will be more rested off of their bye. Because of those factors, this line can only go up. A Chargers' Week 11 loss with any injuries to key player on either side of the ball results in this line moving to Bills -7.
Ravens at Steelers / Steelers -140
The "public bettors" will flock to the Pittsburgh Steelers with an impressive win against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11. "The Sharps," on the other hand, will flock to the Baltimore Ravens with extra rest, and with extra rest I'm referring to the Ravens making three straight road trips coming into this AFC North divisional matchup. I’m also talking about the possibility of the Steelers putting a nail in the coffin for the Ravens' division title hopes here. If the Steelers win this game, they all but wrap up the AFC North. The Ravens, who played in rainy and damp conditions in Week 10, could come up with some positive COVID tests over the next week as well. It’s a shot in the dark, sure, but we should be considering all things that could impact this line. The Steelers also have a layup game after this matchup, playing at home against Washington in Week 13. Pittsburgh could then be looking at 11-0 heading into a showdown at Buffalo. It’s one game at a time, I get it, but we don’t want to lay any points in this game. These games tend to land in that 1-3 area and the -1 won’t surface for any reason, unless the Ravens do in fact breakout with some COVID cases or unexpected injuries. I believe that the ML is the correct wager as of now.
Saints at Broncos / Saints -6
The Denver Broncos will fall into the "worst teams of the league" conversation if they are defeated badly by the Miami Dolphins wins in Week 11. Let’s say the Broncos do lose that game by margin: they then fall to 3-7 on the year, and it's clear cut that the narrative and spotlight for the Broncos gets shifted to the quarterback position. People will say that neither guy is good, whether it's Drew Lock or Brett Rypien under center in the loss, and that this team simply won’t be able to handle the firepower of the New Orleans Saints in Week 12. The Dolphins secondary will also make any quarterback and wide receiver core look bad. It’s unlikely the Broncos get much respect winning a game at home, if they happen to pull off an upset here despite winning with such a short line. The oddsmakers and public will be drooling over this big winniong streak for Miami as well, only making the Broncos look that much worse. Either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill (or both) will take the controls for the Saints in Week 11 for the injured Drew Brees, and if they lose a close game, it’s not going to look all that bad, and this line will remain around the same. If the new Saints quarterback plays well, however, and the Atlanta Falcons show up as lame ducks, as they do at times, this line will jump to -7 or more. This Falcons defense has the dynamics to make Winston and/or Hill look great, and the talk will be about the Saints being healthy going into this Broncos game. It’s a string of things to only make this game go higher as of right now, so we're getting -6 value.