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Eagles at Lions: AJ Brown to score a TD (+135)
Jalen Hurts will want to go to his new weapon as much as possible. Hurts has not had a big body receiver like Brown in his career. The Lions secondary is bad. Brown will find a touchdown on his stat sheet after this one is over.
Steelers at Bengals: Joe Mixon to score a TD (-125)
He’s slated to have 20 touches in this game according to his rushing and receiving props. That’s a healthy amount for the first game of the season. Bengals are 6.5-point favorites, so the game script is where I want it to be for a running back who is favored. Last season, Mixon scored a TD in 11 of 16 games. In last year’s opening game, Mixon had 33 total touches. That was the most amount of touches he saw in any game last season. I think we see a repeat performance Sunday, and we see Mixon in the end zone to cash this ticket.
Ravens at Jets: Elijah Moore to score a TD (+230)
Last year when Flacco started and finished an entire game, Elijah Moore had his best game of the season. Well, Flacco is back at the helm in this week 1 matchup and, by all accounts, Elijah Moore will be his top target. Last year against the Dolphins, they hooked up eight times on 11 attempts. Moore scored a TD in that game and also had one rushing attempt. Flacco targeted Jamison Crowder in that contest as well, but he’s no longer on the team. That helps Moore’s chances of seeing pay dirt in this contest.
49ers at Bears: Darnell Mooney to score a TD (+230)
He’s clearly the number one option for Fields in the passing game. In negative scripted games last season, Fields threw the ball a ton. He had multiple games where he was around minimum 30 passing attempts per game. In Fields final two games of the season, he had a 33 and then a 39 attempt game. The 49ers are tough on defense, but it’s not often we get a team’s top WR at +230. I’ll bite on a Mooney TD here.
Colts at Texans: Michael Pittman Jr. to score a TD (+130)
Pittman is the top option in the Colts passing attack for Matt Ryan. Outside of Pittman, the Colts have a below average wide receiver core. Pittman might lead the AFC in targets this season and that can only mean one thing...Touchdowns. The Texans defense is miserable. They have arguably the worst secondary in the league. Pittman should have a monster game.
Saints at Falcons: Marcus Mariota to score TD (+300)
Mariota is a running QB. The Saints defense is very good, especially their secondary. They will lock down the limited passing options for Mariota. I anticipate him running especially in the redzone. Mariota will tuck it and run more than enough times for this to cash.
Browns at Panthers: David Bell to score a TD (+390)
The Browns are down to their backup QB with Brissett. One of the positive stories coming out of Cleveland is WR David Bell. Brissett clearly has a connection with him otherwise we wouldn’t be hearing all of these good things coming out of camp between these two. Bell will be in the starting lineup as the potential second option. The Panthers defense is average at best and Bell could easily find the endzone in this contest.
Patriots at Dolphins: Jaylen Waddle to score a TD (+160)
Waddle could easily be the top target for Tua this season even with Tyreke Hill in town. The connection Tua and Waddle had last year could be a bond that even Hill can't break. Hill can take the top off the defense and open them up while Tua will have a lot of 1 on 1 matchups with Waddle. Waddle and Tua hooked up a bunch last year. I see no reason it doesn’t happen again. Expect Waddle to score a TD here.
Jaguars at Commanders: Jahan Dotson to score TD (+250)
Dotson could be a top target for Wentz this season. He's a big body WR and Wentz likes big targets, historically. With McLaurin drawing a lot of attention, it’s possible the Jags secondary neglects Dotson and we cash this ticket.
Giants at Titans: Derrick Henry to score a TD (-160)
There's a bunch of juice attached to this play, but it's Derrick Henry. Tannehill has a ton of new WR options and Henry is the only reliable source in this offense to start the season. I don’t think this is that complicated. Henry is scoring a touchdown.
Packers at Vikings: Aaron Rodgers to score a TD (+475)
Why can't Rodgers score a TD here? I can see him doing his discount double check celebration. Rodgers' chemistry with his wide receiving core is scant. Lazard is looking like he will not play, so what's left in that receiving core? If Green Bay is in the red zone, Rodgers will not hesitate to take things in his own hands. It’s a risky pick, but the probability and payoff is great.
Chiefs at Cardinals: Kyler Murray to score TD (+180)
Murray has a bunch of new options to throw to as Hopkins is out with a suspension and Kirk is in Jacksonville. Murray loves to run, but with a new WR core, he could be forced to run even more than he has in the past. If that’s the case, this prop cashes easily.
Raiders at Chargers: Zamir White to score a TD (+340)
I’m not a big Josh Jacobs believer and his backup, Zamir White, could surprise us all in Week 1. This game calls for a ton of points and if Jacobs has even the slightest hiccup, White will be waiting in the wings. The Chargers secondary can be tough to deal with, but the rushing defense can be exploited. I think White makes a splash here in Week 1 of his rookie campaign.