Ravens (+2.5) @ Bills
Over the last couple years it has been pretty crazy how these teams - and their quarterbacks - are so similar coming into this divisional round playoff matchup. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen were part of the same draft class and have experienced similar types of success over the last couple of years. Last year, not many people expected the Baltimore Ravens to be as dominant as they were throughout the regular season, as they finished the 14-2 while Jackson took home won the NFL's Most Valuable Player award.
This year, not many people expected the Buffalo Bills to play as well as they have so far. The Bills finished the regular season 13-3 and yet Allen more than likely still won’t win the MVP like Lamar did in 2019. Allen definitely had an MVP-caliber season though, throwing for 4,544 yards (ranked 5th), with a 69.2% completion (ranked 4th), 7.9 yards per attempt (ranked 5th) and 37 touchdowns (ranked 5th) to only 10 interceptions, a 107.2 QB rating (ranked 5th) and a 81.7 QBR (ranked 3rd). Both teams here are also coming into this matchup red hot as the Ravens are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last 6 games and the Bills are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. I believe the winner of this matchup is gonna come down to strength vs. strength.
The Ravens are more explosive in the running game, averaging 191.9 YPG on the ground (1st overall) while the Bills rush defense gives up 119.6 YPG. I expect the Ravens backfield, led by Jackson, to move the ball on the ground and hit a few shots in the passing game as well with Marquise "Hollywood" Brown and Mark Andrews. The Bills have been a top offense all year, relying more on their explosive passing game. The Ravens secondary, however, has proven to be one of the best all year, only allowing 221 yards through the air (ranking 6th). Baltimore is also top 10 in takeaways (23) and allow opposing quarterbacks a 87.1 quarterback rating which ranks 7th. It also has to feel good for the Ravens to beat a Tennessee Titans team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year and beat them earlier this season, all the while coming back from being down double digits when they were made out to be a team that couldn’t play from behind. Because of this, I believe that Baltimore will ride its momentum and put together a complete game in order to move on to the to the AFC Championship. I like the Ravens +2.5 here on the road at Buffalo.
Like: Ravens +2.5