Soccer Betting Preview: Colombia vs. Germany
Chris Dell, lead sports betting analyst and Betting Predators co-founder, dives into Tuesday's international men's friendly soccer match between No. 17-ranked Colombia and No. 14-ranked Germany, set for 2:45 p.m. EST. Read his betting breakdown.
Fresh off a 1-0 victory over Iraq on Friday, the Colombian men's national team will play another international friendly match tomorrow, this time at Veltins-Arena in Gelsenkirchen, Germany.
The betting odds for this match are entirely wrong, however. Let me explain why, starting with:
Germany's Recent Slump
Germany is 1-2-2 in its last five international friendlies, losing to Poland and drawing with Ukraine in its previous two. The German national team is mired in controversy surrounding the (lack of) performance of certain veteran players. The main discussion, however, is on the performance of its coach. Right now, the Germans are -250 moneyline betting favorites, while the Colombians are priced at +550 to win, with a draw being +350 (at FanDuel Sportsbook). DraftKings Sportsbook also has the odds for a draw at +390.
A New-Look Colombian Squad
Around the time of the 2018 World Cup, they reached as high as the top 5 in the world. Still, injuries and a terrible coaching change (Reinaldo Rueda) led to them missing the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, the highest-ranked men’s national team by FIFA to miss the cup next to Italy (a personal heartbreak for both of my favorite teams, unfortunately, as I’m half Colombian/half Italian, hence my extensive knowledge of this extremely niche topic). Nonetheless, we gather our collective broken spirits and tears, and we move on.
Luis Diaz of Colombia has emerged as one of the world's most talented professional footballers at Liverpool over the years
Current Streaks and Key Players
Fast forward to today: Colombia still hasn’t lost a match since February 1st, 2022 (16+ months running) and is now riding a 10-match unbeaten streak since being “eliminated” from WC contention and eventually firing their manager Rueda a few weeks after. This run isn’t against a bunch of cupcakes, either. It includes wins over FIFA Top 20 teams in Mexico & Japan. Now let's move to the current roster on this two-match swing vs. Germany & Iraq, which will be without global superstar and #10 James Rodriguez. However, new Colombian manager Lorenzo - of Argentinian descent and background - has picked a talented squad sans Rodriguez which will feature Luis Diaz of Liverpool, Juan Cuadrado of Juventus, Jefferson Lerma & Davison Sanchez of Tottenham Hotspur - these are all World Cup quality starters and will all start again on Tuesday vs. Germany. Even Yerry Mina, most recently of Everton, is also listed as a potential substitute.
Game Predictions and Betting Tips
This isn’t to say I believe Colombia will beat Germany outright on German soil - although I believe that’s possible. But I do believe Colombia is mis-priced. Let's take a look at each team's form:
Recent Records and FIFA Ranks - Last 10 matches
Germany 3-4-3 (four losses, three draws)
Colombia 8-0-2 (zero losses, two draws)
Post-2022 World Cup
Losses to Poland (#23)/Belgium (#4)
Win vs. Peru (#21)
Draw vs. Ukraine (#30)
7 goals scored, 7 goals allowed
Wins vs. Japan (#20)/Iraq (#67)
Draws vs. USA (#13)/South Korea (#27)
5 goals scored, 3 goals allowed
Current FIFA rank (last updated in April 2023)
Germany #14 (1647.42)
Colombia #17 (1617.08)
Davinson Sanchez of Colombia, has been a defensive staple for the Colombian men's national team dating back to the 2018 World Cup
By the time of the next FIFA men’s ranking update, we could easily see these two national teams flip-flop positions, so regardless of the outcome in this match, I put this as close to a pick em as humanly possible with a size-able trend line advantage to Colombia. "Los Cafeteros" also have less pressure in this situational spot, unlike Germany, which is fresh off the heals of a disappointing World Cup campaign and eliminated in the group stage. As stated at the top of this article, there are serious conversations on a possible ousting of the head coach given the recent lackluster performances.
Despite Germany's recent struggles, however, I’d be surprised if this wasn’t an exciting and competitive match between two top 20 teams in the world. Germany has gone winless in three straight (0-2-1). It is coming off a 1-0 loss to Poland, so there should be some added motivation to “right the ship,” at home in Gelsenkirchen.
But I also believe the same can still be said for a Colombia side that's extremely motivated to prove themselves after missing the World Cup (WC) in 2022 following two consecutive WC knockout stage appearances in 2014 and 2018. Lorenzo, who previously coached under Jose Pekerman, Colombia's former manager which led them to both WC campaigns in 2014/2018, should have the managerial advantage in this match, which should also mitigate some of the home-field edge for the Germans in Gelsenkirchen. Lorenzo has earned the trust of a talented blend of veteran Colombian footballers and young, rising talent, and unlike the ousted Rueda, he has embraced a fresh attack and offensive strategy which attempts to take full advantage of the creativity of stars like Diaz, Cuadrado and the aforementioned James.
Juan Cuadrado, a veteran of Juventus, will draw his second straight start at centre-back against the Germans at Veltins-Arena
Colombia +1.25 @ DK -125 (1.50 units)
On this bet, a one-goal loss equals a “half win, " while a tie equals a win.
I’m also betting:
Tie +390 @ DK (0.25) Colombia moneyline
(draw = no bet/”push”) @ Bet365 +400 (0.25)
Another bet I like here is for both teams to score YES @ DraftKings -110, but I haven’t found a realistic way to incorporate that into my card for tomorrow. Colombia has the offensive firepower to find the net with Diaz and Cuadrado starting. Germany has also shown to be offense-first and defense-last with its recent mentality on the pitch.
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes fantasy football rankings, player prop analysis, NFL Draft betting strategy, golf bets, DFS and much more, visit www.bettingpredators.com