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WEEK 10 BETTING REVIEW
Week 10 Record: 6-2-1 (+7.4)
It is tough to constantly complain about bad beats and relying on closing line value when your bottom line is in the red. Inevitable variance can make you question your ability and decision-making. For professional and semi-professional bettors, it is always a difficult exercise to remain confident amidst the losing streak. Yet I’m a big believer that the correct process of betting will eventually yield positive results. We were rewarded for being steadfast these last two weeks. This week, in particular, was great, but could have been, perhaps even should have, even better.
ATL -2.5 (LOSS)
The great week started off terribly with a Thursday Night loss. I still can’t get passed PJ Walker being the quarterback of a team and catching less than a field goal. What I probably didn’t factor in enough was the fact that I was asking a lot of an Atlanta team that isn’t great in the own right, win a game on the road on a Thursday night. This was a bad pick all around. No excuses.
TEN 1st Quarter Moneyline (PUSH)
Althought this was a push, I didn’t feel particularly great about the play. When posting it, I cited concerns with Ryan Tannehill and his ankle. That proved to be a concern despite throwing for 255 and 2 touchdowns. He wasn’t nearly as good as those number suggested. Their defense held tight, which gave us the push. This is why I much prefer moneyline than laying points in quarter and half bets. No harm no foul with the push.
MIA -3 (WIN)
I tend to avoid teams that are being faded by syndicates, but I genuinely didn’t understand the Browns love. I am extremely bullish on the Dolphins and think they are undervalued in the market because of all their quarterback injury issues. Tua looks completely recovered and has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year. Once it went to 3, I felt compelled to bite. This game was never in doubt after the first quarter. I have grave concerns about the Browns and I don’t think Watson will be their savior.
IND +4.5 (WIN)
This was another game day bet, which I tend to avoid. However, when I heard Matt Ryan was starting, it was a simple decision. Matt Ryan is a below average starter in the league, but he was replacing a below average backup. The market really didn’t move much after news broke of the switch, which was surprising to me. The Colts were steamed up early in the week, a move I thought was more attributed to the profitable new coach trend. Perhaps I was simply the last to know of the news. Regardless, it worked out in our favor as the Colts won convincingly in a game that seemed to bring the Raiders to tears.
KC -2.5/DEN +9 (WIN)
We have had mixed success with teasers this year, but this one ended in our favor. The Chiefs won fairly convincingly, but the Broncos gave us some concern. With that said, the Broncos didn’t cover the spread, but they fell within the teaser. These are the plays we want to put into teasers. The Chiefs covered the teaser, but they also covered the spread. It would have been better to take them straight up. But I’ll never apologize for a win. We take it and move on.
SF -3.5 (WIN)
The 49ers didn’t cover the game day spread, but we cashed our lookahead. In a game that was perplexing early on, there was serious concern the 49ers would lose outright despite being the better team. After the Chargers saw Everrett banged up and Herbert nearly losing his head, their offense sputttered, which allowed the 49ers to climb back and cover. It is always good to win, but it is certainly sweeter when your lookahead cashes when all lines available during the week lost.
SEA +8/BUF -1 (LOSS)
MIN/BUF O44.5 (WIN)
MIA +7 (WIN)
Part of this paragraph will be me whining about how the Bills should have won the game, which would have given us the trifecta win. However, the case could be made that our teaser should have been dead in the first leg. Seattle had to have an improbable backdoor cover to keep our teaser alive in the first place. I would argue that BUF -1 was the best bet out of all three of our plays in the game. They held a 27-10 lead with under 2 minutes left in the 3rd. They had a 1st and 10 with 44 seconds left on their own 1. All they needed to do was fall forward while holding onto the ball. The last part proved difficult. I can discuss how MIN covered a 4th and 18 on one of the best catches ever, not to mention a 3rd and 22 and 3rd and 10. All 3 of those plays could have/should have gone in our directions which would have given us a winning teaser. Alas, it did not. I’d bent out of shape about one play that didn’t go our way. Enough of the negativity. We went 6-2-1 for +7.4 units. It was a good week.
By Steve Rieder
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