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WEEK 12 BETTING REVIEW
After a rough start to the year, we finally turned the corner into the black by winning 3 of our last 4 weeks. With several teasers coming through and some pregame reflection on the Chicago quarterback situation, we had a very profitable week. I went back and looked at my 1 and 2 unit plays. I’m currently -16.02u on 1u wagers, but +16.07 on 2u wagers. I think its time to be more selective and only give out my most confident plays moving forward.
WEEK 12 BEST BETS: 7-4 (+7.21u)
SEASON LONG: 53-55 (+0.5 units)
1 unit: NYG TT U17.5 (LOSS)
2 unit: BUF -2.5 / DAL -1 (WIN)
This one stung to start the week as the Giants went over with 8 seconds left on a meaningless touchdown. They could only manufacture 5.1 yards per play, went 3-11 on 3rd down and 0-2 on 4th down. We should have cashed this, but with Dallas turning it over twice and playing prevent defense on the last drive, the injury-ridden, lack of talent Giants, went over their total. Lucky for us, Josh Allen and the Bills got their (expletive) together enough to pull the teaser out.
2 unit: CHICAGO +6 (LOSS)
1 unit: CHICAGO TT U13.5 (WIN)
2 unit: NYJ -1 / SF -2.5 (WIN)
I sent this out before I knew the severity of Fields injury. If the Bears had something to play for, I feel like Fields would have given it a go, but with eyes on the future, they started Trevor Siemian. I mean, they started Nate Peterman. No wait, actually it was Trevor Siemian. Once these shenanigans started materializing, I quickly pivoted to the Bears team total under and teasing the Jets. I was certainly hoping for a middle, but I knew our +6 was in major trouble. The Bears aren’t good, but Justin Fields is the catalyst for any prowess they have on offense. If he sits again next week, they should be competing with the Rams for second worst team in the league.
1 unit: TEN +2.5 (LOSS)
2 unit: TEN +8 / PHI -1 (WIN)
We had a tie game going into the 4th quarter, which all you can really ask for backing a dog. Even though Jamar Chase didn’t play, the Bengals receivers were too much for the Titans secondary. For those not keeping tabs on the game, our teaser leg got scary as the Bengals went on a 12 play drive before settling for a field goal with 53 seconds left from the Titans 13 yard line. Ultimately, I probably shouldn’t have laid the 2.5 in hindsight if we were teasing it. I should have sprinkled some money line or laid off entirely. Live and learn.
1 unit: SEA 1st Half -2.5 (LOSS)
If you would have told me that the Seahawks kicked off to start the game and then scored an offensive touchdown within 28 seconds, I would have thought we cashed this. The 12th man simply wasn’t enough and the Seahawks that were the early season darlings are starting to show the warts we all expected to start the year. With the Raiders scoring 17 2nd quarter points, we were drawing dead.
2 unit: CLE +3.5 (WIN)
There were some market influencers that gave out Tampa Bay -3, but this line saw major pushback as the week went on. It did hit as high as -4 on Sunday morning at PointsBet, but no real sportsbook offered anything other than -3 or -3.5. I had major concerns about the Browns team splitting quarterback reps throughout the week. What they are dealing with is really unprecendented and the impact it will have is anyone’s guess. I simply thought the market was giving Tampa Bay too much credit. This line should have been between -2.5 and -3. At +3.5, it was too rich to pass up even if it took the Browns a late drive to force overtime.
2 unit: PHI -6.5 (WIN)
We cashed our lookahead ticket on Sunday night with the Eagles taking care of business. The Packers actually outyarded them by 0.7 yards per play, but the Eagles ran 30 more plays than Green Bay and possessed the ball for over 11 more minutes. With Green Bay reeling and Aaron Rodgers injured, you have to wonder how much longer the Packers will keep looking to win now rather than pivoting toward the future.
2 unit: CAR +8.5 / PIT +8.5
Our 3rd Wong Teaser came through for us this on Monday Night. After the Panthers dominated the Broncos in a 13 point out right win, the Steelers did the same winning on the road in Indianapolis. Admittedly, I was concerned when the Steelers gave up 2 touchdowns to start the 2nd half, but the teaser was never really a threat with the Colts up 1. Ultimately, Tomlin and company got their act together in the 4th.
By Steve Rieder
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